1. We broke the daily descending channel's (blue) and we are holding the breakout by today's close.
2. We have the swing - as we broke above yesterday's high- and the swing was not erased.
3. The target price counted from the triangle (purple line) was reached exactly. That's important : the chart patterns are working so we can count on them in the future also.
4. left overbought : the daily cycle low is confirmed by this indicator.
5. Due to my cycle count yesterday we were at day 45. Very late in the daily cycle. Yesterday was the DCL. We must have at least 3-4 days of bounce - depending on NFP data-. If the data is good gold migh turn down into the panic selling stage. If the number is not so good gold could rally more. Or can print a , or a . ( I will post these scenarios on Thursday night to prepare everybody how to trade NFP on Friday)
4. Since February we have tried to break down 1210$ 6 times (green boxes) : the breakdown failed.
There is no point to start to rally from here again up to 1400$. First we need to break down 1210$ enter to the panic stage. Make everyone believe that the is back and we are heading to 1000$. And then will start the rally up to 1400$.
So tomorrow all the Asian and Japan swing traders, technical traders will be buying.
As we broke below 1210$ but bounced almost immediately we have a beartrap below 1210$. The trapped shorts - who shorted gold after Yellen's speech - tomorrow must face with the reality :
They are in the wrong direction again. They will be forced to stop their short positions.
So all these buying forces will be on the gold market. Plus: if the Euro starts to rally and the USD is turning down from the we will have really strong bounce on Thursday and Friday.
So tomorrow I'm waiting for a same big day as today.
P.S.: I have a feeling that tomorrow or Thursday something will happen what will push up gold price a lot.
We are going to break up soon.
EurUsd is printing a double botom...
We are going to break up.
THere will be a beautiful short squeeze above 1220.
If I'm right we see a complete reversal now.
Smartmoney broke down the hourly trendline. It was an artificial bear flag.
Guys, only retail traders are giving short into a breakdown on the 2nd day of a possible daily cycle, after a swing...
The reversal was caused by the banks who were greedily buying back the positions what retail traders were selling.
It seems to me that the NFP data will be weak. The dollar could print its DCL on Friday or Monday.
Gold will have that pop we are waiting for...
before NFP data. If we have a big down day- maybe before the close- I will buy DUST.
The same for GDX,GDXJ, NUGT: Big up day is a reason to sell.
And EurUsd can soar
If I was Draghi I would strengthen the Euro...
Waiting for the bounce.I don't see anything wrong here
because of the whipsaw around the 100 EMA.
What I see that there is divergence between the miners and gold. It seems some players positioned in longs in the miners today.
I might open a very small long position in XAUUSD in the night launching the Metal trade 2.
25 or 50 ounces....
Could you please compare the two days? what's your target, 1228 or 1240? What is your suggestion for DUST and NUGT in the coming days.
Thank you very much.
The trendline break is there but there was only a false swing which was not holding.
I would say that it could be similar to 19.Nov. There the indicators are quite the same.
I know there was a lower low after that but no waterfall decline. If we spend here 2-3 more weeks without the bounce then
the panic stage is out of the table. Then gold will print a slow rally up to 13++.
We will have time to get long. But this is not short right now.
Very important what's happening today and tomorrow. Smartmoney will now the NFP by tomorrow. I will see
how they are positioning for Friday.
I might enter a smal short position on Friday before NFP if we pop up to 1240, or try to short after the news . We see.
Now the good position is a small long position from 1205-1210. Or cash.