chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Unfinished business

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
12034 180 126
Today is an important day so I will post a daily summary where we are.
1. We broke the daily descending channel's trendline (blue) and we are holding the breakout by today's close.
2. We have the swing - as we broke above yesterday's high- and the swing was not erased.
3. The target price counted from the triangle (purple line) was reached exactly. That's important : the chart patterns are working so we can count on them in the future also.
4. RSI left overbought : the daily cycle low is confirmed by this indicator.
5. Due to my cycle count yesterday we were at day 45. Very late in the daily cycle. Yesterday was the DCL. We must have at least 3-4 days of bounce - depending on NFP data-. If the data is good gold             migh turn down into the panic selling stage. If the number is not so good gold             could rally more. Or can print a hanging man , or a hammer . ( I will post these scenarios on Thursday night to prepare everybody how to trade NFP on Friday)
4. Since February we have tried to break down 1210$ 6 times (green boxes) : the breakdown failed.
There is no point to start to rally from here again up to 1400$. First we need to break down 1210$ enter to the panic stage. Make everyone believe that the bear is back and we are heading to 1000$. And then will start the rally up to 1400$.

So tomorrow all the Asian and Japan swing traders, technical traders will be buying.
As we broke below 1210$ but bounced almost immediately we have a beartrap below 1210$. The trapped shorts - who shorted gold             after Yellen's speech - tomorrow must face with the reality :
They are in the wrong direction again. They will be forced to stop their short positions.
So all these buying forces will be on the gold             market. Plus: if the Euro             starts to rally and the USD is turning down from the trendline we will have really strong bounce on Thursday and Friday.

So tomorrow I'm waiting for a same big marubozu day as today.

P.S.: I have a feeling that tomorrow or Thursday something will happen what will push up gold             price a lot.

Comment: 4. RSI left ***oversold*** : the daily cycle low is confirmed by this indicator.
Comment: 50 EMA was holding in the night
Comment:
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Comment: 100 EMA under siege again.
We are going to break up soon.
EurUsd is printing a double botom...
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Comment: This is a fake move in gold now:
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Comment: Gold should rally also...
Comment: Try to hold the lines. Banks are pushing down the goldprice.
We are going to break up.
Comment: The beatrapped shorts are adding to the positions as the "bear flag" broke down.
THere will be a beautiful short squeeze above 1220.
Comment: I think they are ready. Those who are not short now are sitting in cash.
If I'm right we see a complete reversal now.
Comment: I hope it's clear for everyone what happened today.
Smartmoney broke down the hourly trendline. It was an artificial bear flag.
Guys, only retail traders are giving short into a breakdown on the 2nd day of a possible daily cycle, after a swing...
The reversal was caused by the banks who were greedily buying back the positions what retail traders were selling.
Comment: EurUsd is printing a DCL , and DXY (US Dollar Index is topping)
It seems to me that the NFP data will be weak. The dollar could print its DCL on Friday or Monday.
Gold will have that pop we are waiting for...
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Comment: I want to see how big will be today's bounce - no question there will be a bounce. If it's big enough I might be entering a xauusd short or a DUST long. Today will be the last day to enter DUST
before NFP data. If we have a big down day- maybe before the close- I will buy DUST.
The same for GDX,GDXJ, NUGT: Big up day is a reason to sell.
Comment: We will break the 100 EMA now...
Comment: ECB press conference in 8 minutes. That's why the big movement in DXY, EurUsd, and Gold
Comment: Hopefully Draghi disappoints the market.
And EurUsd can soar
Comment: Brexit will make enough panic.
If I was Draghi I would strengthen the Euro...
Comment:
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Comment: Plan is unchanged.
Waiting for the bounce.I don't see anything wrong here
Comment: It's starting to look like a raising triangle. Though the upper line is not horizontal
because of the whipsaw around the 100 EMA.
Comment: I'm NOT going to open DUST before the close. And I don't suggest miners to open before the close also. Smartmoney was very careful before tomorrow.
What I see that there is divergence between the miners and gold. It seems some players positioned in longs in the miners today.
I might open a very small long position in XAUUSD in the night launching the Metal trade 2.
25 or 50 ounces....
ur analyse is amazing , Keep it up
+2 Reply
Great overview. What does Marubozu mean? :P
+1 Reply
Hope it's a joke. :)
+2 Reply
babak_eng austinchan
It's a good practice if you just google Marubozu Candle and you will see what he is talking about instead of having the answer right away. I hope it helps.
+6 Reply
Thank you for this excellent summary.
+1 Reply
u r amazing :o) THANKS!!!
+1 Reply
Thanks, much appreciate your analysis and updates.
+1 Reply
perfect analyse
+1 Reply
Arpi you say RSI left overbought, confirming the DCL. Don't you mean oversold??
+1 Reply
Corrected. Thanx.
I'm just hiding mistakes in the text to see anyone reading... ;)
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Marvin chartwatchers
Lol. Well now you know I am anyway. Cheers.
+1 Reply
great, thanks for your analisys on this chat.
+1 Reply
Fantastic!! Thanks for all of this useful information and analysis.
+1 Reply
I'm worried about a couple of things.. GDX closed below it's 50DMA and the 2 hour chart is showing a 'triangular formation' which would normally suggest further downside for the Miners. Thoughts?

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+1 Reply
Daily lookos ok for me. Closing on the 50 EMA.
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
Gold was making a lower low on the hourly and miners just went sideways
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pmcllc PRO Nightstar
GDX going donw to 12 level again?
+1 Reply
We just started a Bull Market in Gold so I don't think we're gonna see GDX 12 anytime soon ;)
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Thanks for sharing your thoughts, I see it coming crystal clear. 3 days up until Thrusday/Friday, and then will get Missy for several weeks. yes, the panic selling may last for 5-7 days, but many more days with smaller down days. I thing it will last at least 6 weeks of down trend.
+1 Reply
Great Summary
Thank for sharing the benefit of RSI..
+1 Reply
Seriously, you should be wearing a cape!!
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the indicators such as RSI, stoch and MACD are almost the same as those on Nov. 9, 2015. It also broke the trend line. The candle pattern and the days of price decreasing were different from today's. I am a bit worried that the gold price will not bounce.
Could you please compare the two days? what's your target, 1228 or 1240? What is your suggestion for DUST and NUGT in the coming days.
Thank you very much.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chasingziyou
Nov.9. is not similar to this. RSI is in deep oversold territory. MACD is no turning up.
The trendline break is there but there was only a false swing which was not holding.
I would say that it could be similar to 19.Nov. There the indicators are quite the same.
I know there was a lower low after that but no waterfall decline. If we spend here 2-3 more weeks without the bounce then
the panic stage is out of the table. Then gold will print a slow rally up to 13++.
We will have time to get long. But this is not short right now.
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+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
I put a green arrow to 19. Nov and a red to 9.Nov...
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
I would like to reenter to a short between 1240-1270$.
Very important what's happening today and tomorrow. Smartmoney will now the NFP by tomorrow. I will see
how they are positioning for Friday.
I might enter a smal short position on Friday before NFP if we pop up to 1240, or try to short after the news . We see.
Now the good position is a small long position from 1205-1210. Or cash.
+1 Reply
Hit the bottom of the Parallel Channel and about to pop up , very nice Divergense
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+1 Reply
so, no panice sales anymore, we won't see it, sir?
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chartwatchers PRO ChineseCoolie
I see 80% chance for the panic selling. But now there are too many shorts.
Market needs to get rid of these shorts and get everybody bullish.
So we are waiting for the bounce like the snake at the yellow river.
+1 Reply
SharkbaitAl chartwatchers
I like this imagery lol
+1 Reply
So to sum up: wait for shorts until it gets a bit higher, in the meantime try long with small position?
I see the narrow channel on the 1Hchart, bounced off so should possibly good long entry now? (short term)
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Thanks for the update @Chartwatchers. So what do u think..will it be bullish or bearish?Please advise.
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4thewin 4XHunter
what are the chances we are looking at a bear flag?
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+1 Reply
I think they want the market think it's a bear flag.
If the dollar will turn down now gold will pop.
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff chartwatchers
bearflag to me
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nnavarrete chartwatchers
Kindly advise what is your opinion in case gold goes below 1210. You initial chart states that the 7th time will be successful. I am currently long on JNUG. Thanks!
+1 Reply
4XHunter 4thewin
Thanks @4thewin...
+1 Reply
4thewin 4thewin
longs, put your stop below the channel. shorts put your stops above... that simple
+1 Reply
i am looking a long, hitting 21 EMA
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Give me 30mins to open the market plz ..... Fuking banks are playing so much against.... Hate it
+1 Reply
Gold bumped into minor resistance here. That is why it stopped a bit.
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Thanks for your great analysis. The bounce will be very very shallow as long as the slow stochastic is embedded below 20 on the daily chart.. $1220 will be already difficult. maximum $1232... all metals have bearish embedded stochastic.. very bearish setup for the next couple of weeks..
+1 Reply
how do you know this? do you see it on level 2? tx.
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If gold is in a bear flag and breaks down, I have made an idea for a reversal.
Potential H&S Reversal in Gold after Ascending Wedge Breakdown
+1 Reply
the dollar might be rising this morning to complete a H&S reversal pattern.
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+1 Reply
Seems its falling pretty hard don't u think ?
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