QuantumLogicTrading
Long

LONG GOLD - STRAT TRADE: 99.7% PROBABILITY OF REVERSAL

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
Long XAUUSD:

1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD             has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily.

2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level.

3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although risk-off assets on the year are still heavily bid up some 20% even at these levels thus a pull back may be justified - nonetheless for this particular strat trade this is less relevant given the tactical nature

Trading Strategy:

1. Sell XAUUSD             at market in 1xlot, and add 2x on each daily close higher from here. Start in VERY small lots to reduce risk and ensure you can add on adverse moves lower (it could be several days). TP is the next/ First daily close higher.

Any questions please ask - also see performance attached of recent trades using the same stats
isaac312 PRO
2 months ago
I entered my position end of the last trading day.
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QuantumLogicTrading isaac312
2 months ago
Yup ive just got in now!
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isaac312 PRO
2 months ago
Market sentimental totally changed... Stop out
1. Obama ministry wanna kill Trump
So NMI PMI damm good + NFP from intial continue claim guaging
2. UsdJPY , risk on mood...

What I learned past month is that the market sentimental overtake by expectation of 2Q ahead
25% year ahead 60% 2Q ahead 15% now mood.
Please, let me know your thoughts
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QuantumLogicTrading isaac312
2 months ago
this strategy is highly in the money now.. have to be patient for the probability to come through
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MrWondera
2 months ago
We'll probably have a santa rally just like last year if trump loses then the crash in Equity will due. 10-20% correction

Im waiting for BOE nov trying to bring out their last card on the table with lower rate and more easing.

I think gold still have room below but 1250 is definitely a good spot otherwise i have 1232 -1220 as reference
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