chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Unfinished business 2.

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
2972 22 76
6 months ago
I would like to summarize why do I think gold             is not long right now.
It's not only because of technical reasons. The gold             chart is completely screwed by the weak jobs data number. I still think that powers knew the data and banks didn't allow gold             to pop last Wednesday and Thursday. We got all the 3 days pop in one package on Friday. That's the best way to get everyone bullish . And when everybody is ready to go long - with the weekly swing in place - then it's time to force the market into an intermediate correction.
We are in the 5th (!) daily cycle since January without a strong correction. There was one correction ( 1304---}1200 ) but that's too thin to me. In the 5th daily cycle usually we have a 5-8 days pop and price starts a final decline into the DCL which is also a DCL.

I don't see any reason for gold             to start to rally before July.
The waiting for the next FED meeting will strengthen the USD. If there is no rate hike the Brexit panic will strengthen the USD and weaken the Euro             . And in the meanwhile stocks are breaking to new highs. The money will flow from PM to the stocks in June.
Did Yellen say that there is no rate hike in the summer? No. She said "US remains on track for more interest-rate hikes" . And they can only rise this summer : June or July. If we start to rally from here when everybody is bullish this rally will be weak. For a really strong rally first we need a decline below 1200 to the 200 SMA (Daily SMA )

So we are back to the old plan:
I was waiting for a pop in gold             (5-7 days) and after this bounce we need a healthy correction down to the 200 SMA .
I will stick to this plan . I played the decline from 1304 to 1200. I played the pop from the DCL (1200) to 1240 . And I will play the decline to the 200 SMA .

Levels to watch on the daily chart:
I would like to see a break below the 50 and the 20 EMA. Later a break below 10 EMA .
And finally before the panic selling stage the break below 1200.

Warning:
A pop up to 1255 (red trendline) is still not off the table. But I don't want to see a break above the double top's neckline at 1263$.

5 months ago
Comment: Don't start to short PM, I meant precious metals in the post.
:)
5 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Wedge is breaking down.
archie123
6 months ago
Nice explanation of your observations and strategy given the economic and political events. Appreciate very much your savvy and efforts. Thank you !
Reply
nnavarrete PRO
6 months ago
Thank you so much for the update!! Are we okay to start increasing our shorts (JDST)?. Should we hedge with som3 longs (JNUG) until the pric3 reaches the 1260 mark that we were all expecting.
Kindly reply when you get a chance.
Reply
shinsky nnavarrete
5 months ago
Why do you guys keep asking him on what to do???? He clearly says what he's doing and if you're deviating from his choices you need to figure it out. He's not here as your personal adviser. Let him concentrate on his analysis for all of us instead of your own selfish needs!!!!!
+7 Reply
NinjaMG2016 shinsky
5 months ago
Seriously, agreed. Get a personal adviser if you need detailed advice.
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Marvin shinsky
5 months ago
Well said Shinsky. i just hope I'm not guilty of this myself later on.
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KevinTang shinsky
5 months ago
Agree. I think most of us should appreciate his work and learn how he analyze. By now, he is giving us the great big picture and everything is working good. Don't ask again and again whenever there is a small price out of the direction. This is the market although planned. I think what we should do is to get the help of the big picture and take profit in our own way. Don't deviate him.
+1 Reply
johnmad PRO
6 months ago
Nice Engulfing Sell Candle as well.
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ofiratias4
6 months ago
what do you thnk about SL?
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Sakakikunmakio
5 months ago
Cool
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Amirio-dz
5 months ago
Helpful analyze thank you Sir
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Zahra
5 months ago
Thanks Arpi :)
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KevinTang
5 months ago
Thanks for this post. There is one knowledge I didn't understand, which is the DCL. I saw it a lot of times in your posts. Do you have a good link about DCL which we can learn to follow your ideas?
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KevinTang KevinTang
5 months ago
when you say 5th daily cycle. I am curious about the number 5. Is there a theory or it is your knowledge?
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MiDiGre PRO KevinTang
5 months ago
I'm interested too :-)
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nikkki
5 months ago
Thank you Arpi!
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ice_holly01
5 months ago
The explanation in the chart above got truncated. I only see '5th W... When ....the pa ', could you please tell us what you write there? Thanks, always. :)
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vikingaskepp ice_holly01
5 months ago
You can move it, do that and you will see what it says./ Karin
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ice_holly01 vikingaskepp
5 months ago
thanks.
Reply
Amirio-dz
5 months ago
hhhhhhhh okey
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AlphaDreams PRO
5 months ago
Shorted spikes and still on plan. Traded movements along the way for balance management.
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val_trader
5 months ago
1270!!
Reply
mabaert PRO
5 months ago
test of upper line of wedge?
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