Goodmorning guys, a quick pre-FOMC update on gold,
Solid bullish PA and bulls printed 2 white soldiers on the daily timeframe with a solid close 1768+ (0.618 fibo). This makes it very likely bulls will try to reach the next fibo level, which is around 1797 and printing the third soldier. They might stall at 1790, around the bearish trendline.
COT-day
Many have wondered what was going on yesterday. The dollar was rising, but gold was rising with it. The answer is simple, yesterday was COT-day where all the COT-data is collected. The big guys want to trouble your vision by showing they added longs on the COT-release coming Friday. This makes Tuesday's always tricky to trade.
FOMC & Uncle Powell
It is widely expected that Powell will make an 'announcement about a tapering announcement in December' in this FOMC. However, expect a somewhat dovish Powell due to the bad NFP of August and calming inflation data. On the other hand, the Retail Sales data was explosive. If no timeline announcement is being made, gold will fly and break 1800 with its first target 1825. This seems unlikely looking at the bearish market structure, but never say never. The market is full of surprises.
Taper Timeline
If Powell mentions the timeline for tapering, that will be the nail in the coffin for gold. Also pay attention to the dotplot, if there are more than 7 voters pledging for a rate hike in 2022, gold will be dumped quicker than you can say 'hot potatoe'. Bearish target remains 1730-1735 on the short term, but depending on volatility and volume we might go even lower.
Trade safely today!
Cheers,
Cesaro
Solid bullish PA and bulls printed 2 white soldiers on the daily timeframe with a solid close 1768+ (0.618 fibo). This makes it very likely bulls will try to reach the next fibo level, which is around 1797 and printing the third soldier. They might stall at 1790, around the bearish trendline.
COT-day
Many have wondered what was going on yesterday. The dollar was rising, but gold was rising with it. The answer is simple, yesterday was COT-day where all the COT-data is collected. The big guys want to trouble your vision by showing they added longs on the COT-release coming Friday. This makes Tuesday's always tricky to trade.
FOMC & Uncle Powell
It is widely expected that Powell will make an 'announcement about a tapering announcement in December' in this FOMC. However, expect a somewhat dovish Powell due to the bad NFP of August and calming inflation data. On the other hand, the Retail Sales data was explosive. If no timeline announcement is being made, gold will fly and break 1800 with its first target 1825. This seems unlikely looking at the bearish market structure, but never say never. The market is full of surprises.
Taper Timeline
If Powell mentions the timeline for tapering, that will be the nail in the coffin for gold. Also pay attention to the dotplot, if there are more than 7 voters pledging for a rate hike in 2022, gold will be dumped quicker than you can say 'hot potatoe'. Bearish target remains 1730-1735 on the short term, but depending on volatility and volume we might go even lower.
Trade safely today!
Cheers,
Cesaro
Trade closed: target reached:
1737, close enough.
