Here's my view on Gold based on EW analysis.
In my opinion the correction in Gold is far from complete as it seems that we are still tracing the first A-wave of the correction, which is a 5-wave formation which started at 1920. A correction can never be 5 waves, therefore we need at least another three and another five.
I assume we are tracing a zigzag and wave A is completing in which waves 1-4 are done and wave 5 is unfolding and is likely an ending diagonal. Wave 3 was extended and falling just short of 1.618 multiple of wave 1. Since wave 3 was extended we may assume equality of waves 1 and 5. This brings us to the final target of wave 5 to approx 1000. Intermediate targets being 1100, bounce back to 1200 and then down to 1000.
Once wave A is completed we need to see a sharp correction back to approx 1400 (terminus of wave 4). Another reason for that level is that ending diagonals are usually quickly retraced to at least the point of departure. So 1400 for gold in a few months seems realistic.
The retracement to 1400 would mark the completion of wave B, which will be followed by the descending wave C. If the whole correction is a zigzag and assuming equality between wave A and C we can well go down to 500, but I think the more appropriate targets for wave C would be either 1000 (strong psychological support, strong support of the top of wave 4 formed in 2008) or 700 (end of wave 4 of 2008).
I believe we still need at least a year or so to complete the whole correction. Since USD is going to strengthen for another year or even longer this might make sense that gold prices will hold low. Only once we start seeing increasing weakness in USD, then the focus will switch to Gold as a primary capital preservation vehicle. And we can get a dramatic rally therein.
In my opinion the correction in Gold is far from complete as it seems that we are still tracing the first A-wave of the correction, which is a 5-wave formation which started at 1920. A correction can never be 5 waves, therefore we need at least another three and another five.
I assume we are tracing a zigzag and wave A is completing in which waves 1-4 are done and wave 5 is unfolding and is likely an ending diagonal. Wave 3 was extended and falling just short of 1.618 multiple of wave 1. Since wave 3 was extended we may assume equality of waves 1 and 5. This brings us to the final target of wave 5 to approx 1000. Intermediate targets being 1100, bounce back to 1200 and then down to 1000.
Once wave A is completed we need to see a sharp correction back to approx 1400 (terminus of wave 4). Another reason for that level is that ending diagonals are usually quickly retraced to at least the point of departure. So 1400 for gold in a few months seems realistic.
The retracement to 1400 would mark the completion of wave B, which will be followed by the descending wave C. If the whole correction is a zigzag and assuming equality between wave A and C we can well go down to 500, but I think the more appropriate targets for wave C would be either 1000 (strong psychological support, strong support of the top of wave 4 formed in 2008) or 700 (end of wave 4 of 2008).
I believe we still need at least a year or so to complete the whole correction. Since USD is going to strengthen for another year or even longer this might make sense that gold prices will hold low. Only once we start seeing increasing weakness in USD, then the focus will switch to Gold as a primary capital preservation vehicle. And we can get a dramatic rally therein.
