chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Massacre after the false swing

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
3423 30 46
It was a nice day on the short side at GoldStreet. The menu was toasted bull .
We are getting close where I take profit on my shorts ( from 1315 to 1300$) But not opening long yet - I will explain later why
In the night we had a false swing in the Asian session ( price run above the previous 3 day's high). A lot of Asian bulls were buying the breakout. They had to cover their longs later 20-25$ lower.
I set this post as a "short" though I don't recommend to short it. It's simply too late.
The time when I was going short was at this post:
GOLD - Sell the news

GOLD - Sell the news 2 (Weekly)


So we are heading down the question is how far.
The daily cycle could bottom at the 50 EMA this week(red) or could bottom next week at the FOMC if there is a rate hike (blue).

I've made 70$ on this short trade so I don't want to risk to get caught in a bull run out of the DCL. So I'm closing the positions between 1300-1315$. I will wait the FOMC meeting before opening any long position.

I will not open this long at the exact bottom, but at least I dont have to survive a drawdawn from 1300 to 1260$ if Yellen's slaves vote for the rate hike next Wednesday.



Ibrahim_Maher
6 months ago
amazing analysis but do u think we gonna hit 1300 before the FOMC !!
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chartwatchers PRO Ibrahim_Maher
6 months ago
Is it a question? Yes I think we will be at 1300 this week
+1 Reply
verlin03
6 months ago
Nice call ;) still holding.....
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pmcllc PRO
6 months ago
I think the rate hike is low probability.. but who knows it could be a surprise..
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tradingacct
6 months ago
I just want to say thank you for what you do. It is a privilege to follow you !
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lanpham
6 months ago
Thks. I like your analysis.
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webmiztriz PRO
6 months ago

Amazing Arpi ...
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A week or two ago, I thought there will be more talks about the rate hike from Feds but all I hear is equity market rally and Trump. Are they going to surprise market big time? I don't think so. Looks like no rate hike in July but probably in Sept. This will be in line with bullish gold and S&P at the same time for some time.
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totally agree. thanks for sharing
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Nickelor PRO
6 months ago
Great analysis, thank for sharing.
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Victor.Y.F
6 months ago
Thank you chartwatchers! Same view with you but I will long this one after rates hike not before it. It's very dangerous for assuming somethings here.
+1 Reply
Quant
6 months ago
So much noise. Keep it simple. It's all about fiscal policy going forward. Adjusting MACD would provide color, Slow Stoch is counter to MACD indicator both lagging adjust MCAD to the proper settings with Fast Stoch can provide perspective 1425 handle before 1300 . Easy to call 1300 when gold at 1315. Have a good and profitable session.
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Quant Quant
6 months ago
snapshot
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chartwatchers PRO Quant
6 months ago
I called it 2 weeks ago at the exact top.
GOLD - Sell the news
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Quant
6 months ago
It has nothing to do with fiscal policy. I trade based on the cycles and my indicator complex.
Sometimes chart and candlestick patterns.
+1 Reply
Quant chartwatchers
6 months ago
yet applying central planners policy. they go hand in hand. you mention rate would suggest you apply policy to your framework. Thanks for sharing.
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Quant Quant
6 months ago
snapshot
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investment6300 Quant
6 months ago
You have not really followed this have you? He has made many gold posts that follow on others. For someone that don't pay attention you criticize too easily. Look and learn mate!
+3 Reply
chartwatchers PRO investment6300
6 months ago
Dip buyers/ early bulls coming and posting all the way long.
It's a good sign : it shows we haven't finished the decline yet. At the bottom noone will post :
Bulls will be stopped out, bears will sorry that closed their shorts too early.
+4 Reply
investment6300 chartwatchers
6 months ago
Hahaha..Yip!!! I am one of them, I tend to close my trades too early..
+1 Reply
Quant chartwatchers
6 months ago
Indeed, thanks for sharing your work. I do recall the work you provided when gold at around 1250. Predicting lower prices however the trade went the other way.
+1 Reply
toothless Quant
6 months ago
I think it's pretty rude of you to call someone's work "noise", and now this bullshit passive aggressive statement above.
+1 Reply
Quant toothless
6 months ago
I want to clarify. I was referring to the diff indicators. I thank him for sharing his work.
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saint_athur
6 months ago
Today if still bear last support is 1280
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USSRandolph
6 months ago
Why do you come here to bash others? That's not helpful. If it's not to your liking, why not find a place that is.
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
6 months ago
I closed early too... But I still got 20 pct.
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USSRandolph
6 months ago
All that was gained has been erased. Could it be that we have seen the bottom?
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dsab USSRandolph
6 months ago
I don't think it will go up yet, I think we will get a red candle that wil go back down all the way to 1307.19, but is also possible to go up all the way to 1354. I think this is a false break-out and that this will drop down all the way back to 1307. So this week will end in red. I think the bears are pushed out of the market, before the next short cycles begins. But we will see good look trading!

Ps: maybe is better not to touch this one and look for other trades for now, nobody knows what the market will do.
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ok14 USSRandolph
6 months ago

certainly can bottom.
Many have seen the goal . slightly not reach , it is often
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USSRandolph ok14
6 months ago
Agree with both of you. Caution is always the watchword
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