XAU/USD | Gold Reaches Critical Supply Zone, Free Fall Ahead?

May 11

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 2H timeframe, we can see that after the previous analysis, Gold opened today with a bearish gap around the $4687 region. Price initially dropped toward $4648, but strong buying pressure stepped in once again and buyers managed not only to fully fill the gap, but also push price even higher into the critical $4730 – $4750 supply zone.

However, after reaching this key resistance area, strong selling pressure appeared again and Gold is currently trading below this zone, showing signs of rejection.

Right now, markets are heavily pricing in the possibility of renewed tensions between Iran and the United States, which explains today’s extreme volatility and aggressive price swings. Headlines remain highly contradictory, making this one of the most headline-driven environments we’ve seen recently.

In my view, if geopolitical tensions continue rising, Gold could eventually enter another heavy bearish phase. However, I also see a possible liquidity-grab scenario where price may first sweep the liquidity sitting above the $4772 high before the real bearish move begins. For now, this remains the key level to watch.

From a structural perspective, the nearest supply zones are $4730 – $4750, followed by $4770 – $4800 as the next major resistance cluster. On the downside, the closest demand zones are located around $4680 – $4700, with deeper support sitting between $4620 – $4650.

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Best Regards , Arman Shaban

May 12

Trade active

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 2H timeframe, we can see that price followed the projected scenario perfectly. Gold first pushed above the $4772 liquidity high, completed the expected stop-hunt, and immediately faced aggressive selling pressure right after sweeping the buy-side liquidity.

Following this rejection, Gold collapsed sharply and dropped all the way toward $4639, delivering more than 1300 pips of return from the discussed setup. Currently, Gold is trading around the $4667 region, showing weak recovery after the heavy sell-off.

From a structural perspective, the $4687 level now becomes the key short-term pivot. As long as price remains below this zone, the probability of further downside continuation remains high.

The nearest supply zones are now located around $4680 – $4700, followed by the stronger resistance cluster between $4730 – $4750. On the downside, the closest demand zones are sitting around $4620 – $4640, with deeper support located between $4580 – $4600.

In my view, if sellers maintain control below $4687, the next short-term bearish targets are $4650, followed by $4620, then $4600, and potentially lower if geopolitical tensions continue escalating.

May 13

Trade closed: target reached

By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 2H timeframe, we can see that after the previous analysis, Gold attempted one more bullish push and climbed toward the $4727 region. However, sellers once again defended the upper supply area aggressively and price failed to hold the recovery.

Following this rejection, Gold continued moving lower in line with the main bearish scenario and is currently trading around the $4680 region, showing continued downside pressure and weak bullish momentum.

From a structural perspective, the $4687 level still remains the key short-term pivot. As long as price stays below this area, the probability of further bearish continuation remains high.

The nearest supply zones are located around $4687 – $4705, followed by the stronger resistance cluster between $4725 – $4750. On the downside, the first major bearish target remains around $4639, with deeper demand zones located between $4600 – $4620.

In my view, if sellers continue defending the current resistance zones, Gold could extend its downside move further toward lower liquidity areas. This analysis will be updated as the market evolves.