Gold's general commentary: Ranged Price-action came as no Technical surprise as Price-action remains within Rectangle on a combination of Fundamental pressure and Technical necessity for a Lower Low’s extension. It is closely related to currency Volatility on DX (and the economy related Fed’s talks, hawkish stance) as the Price-action in near equilibrium with DX (yesterday's opening levels of # +0.10%) also on Weekly scale and even if the pair completes it’s Bearish Flag pattern, Gold should not Technically soar above #1,792.80. On the Short-term side, there is an clear Resistance and Support zone, limiting Sellers advances to it’s maximum thru Fundamental side (new Omicron virus outbreak). Gold should already be below #1,752.80 psychological barrier Technically, but now Support tests seems more likely to develop and show more durability. Hourly 4 chart points that Higher Low is priced in and Resisting the Price-action at #1,792.80 which makes it an possible Hourly 1 chart's Ascending Channel variance (on evident rejection near #1,772.80 currently) - typical target of this includes #1,800.80 on Short-term (less likely). In extension - I will advance with extreme care ahead of the most significant macroeconomic events of the week (Friday’s session NFP). However, if #1,772.80 breaks, #1,752.80 is the next destination, ahead of #Q3's #1,727.80 variance. It is important to note that Gold has #3 strong Resistances ahead of #1,800.80 benchmark, while on the other side, Support cluster is not so significant. In translation, once #1,772.80 breaks, Gold might test #1,752.80 benchmark within the session.
Fundamental analysis: As expected, Gold is so far defending the #1,788.80 - #1,792.80 belt intact and preserving Short and Medium-term Bearish dominance. Hourly 4 chart is aswell stalling the uptrend. Gold is pricing it’s Higher Low first time after #14 sessions, and it is extending it’s Descending Channel range with #1,752.80 as the next Lower Low’s extension. Despite another session of DX (# +0.03%) Trading without a recovery, Gold is less affected as it continues to be more tied to (Gold # +0.36%), Bond Yields (# +0.47%). Note how Gold holds it’s correlation with Bond Yields almost on every aspect. It was Natural to expect Buyers to re-appear with RSI on critical levels pointing to an eminent consolidation. As long as this variance continues, Selling the Top’s is the most safest framework. Buying pressure also comes from the global pullback on equities after the disappointing German PMI data who raise flags for a possible economic slowdown. Especially if the Fundamental announcements later this session also disappoint. I remain Bearish of course on Short and Medium-term with my previous levels unchanged, but just to secure my capital and use every opportunity to spot most accurate pattern, I will carefully monitor the markets in order to prevent unexpected scenarios and pick the optimal entry point. #1,772.80 is my Support / entry point and if broken I will act accordingly as it can extend the takedown towards #1,752.80 pressure point. In closing hours of the yesterday's session, Gold was on a run towards Resistance (priced at #1,792.80), but it seems like a strong cluster, drawing the Daily chart’s candles within touching distance of two trendline Supports. Beyond here, Hourly 4 chart’s structure offers September #27 opening level as my new Short-term Target. Weekly structure, as highlighted in my reports, crossed paths with a 1:1 correction, exactly took place on August #2013. As is evident from the chart, Selling has so far been reasonably strong from November #16 Top, as every Resistance test (from #Q1) resulted as an #100 decline on the aftermath.
Technical analysis: The Technicals on the Daily chart are showing Bearish signals and I can spot with certainty that Gold is Bearish on Medium-term aswell. Hourly 4 chart’s trendline mentioned above – is an area where Sellers may be looking to get involved, as Buying Gold at the moment is dangerous, unless Resistance cluster is invalidated. I may wait for candlestick configuration development (continuation of Descending Channel) before entering additional Sell order. This helps recognize Buyers intent and provides Traders with entry and risk levels to work with. I will carefully calculate Risk/Reward ratio and act accordingly. My pick for entry is Hourly 4 chart’s Higher Low’s Support near #1,772.80. It is important to note that since June #2 High’s, when Gold engages the aggressive takedown, Price-action does not fall (knife decline) instantly as an meltdown, price falls gradually with evident corrections. I found many similarities on July #30 decline, aswell on September #6 Top Selling and late November (currently) Top Selling which is Targeting #1,752.80 extension. It is important to note that if #1,752.80 benchmark breaks and Price-action closes below it, #1,700.80 psychological barrier will be exposed on full scale Bearish sequence. My formula points to #1,678.80 aswell ahead, as Fed fueled hawkish stance will make Investors to park their capital on DX and Bond Yields, making Gold vulnerable and exposed to risk. I am expecting #1,752.80 test within #3 sessions, regardless of NFP outcome.
My position: Even though I am expecting #1,752.80 benchmark test ahead, as expected Gold is gradually approaching my Support levels. It is surely my marked Support zone, but since my configuration is not backed up by correlating assets (DX and Yields - both in Neutral territory), my position can reverse anytime which may endanger my capital. Therefore, I will Sell with certainty, with #1,768.80 as an entry point, including strict Risk management rules. My Target is #1,752.80. If my position does not deliver results, I may alter the order within first few Hours of opening, as Investors may be waiting for NFP numbers to make their move. NFP or not, my analysis filters such events as I am confident that Gold will be Trading below #1,752.80 sooner or later.
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goldenBear88
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BrianMontilla
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