It is possible that we had a truncated fifth wave to end this pullback. Since last week, we are still climbing higher here and it looks like we are struggling to take the 200 DMA at 1270. On the daily chart, last week we had a Bullish Harami. We can see five waves up from 1245 to 1274. Now we can have a small pullback to the 1260 area … or not. All in all, these are some bullish noise coming out. We are looking behind the bottom here but we need a decisive move higher of the 200 DMA and it looks like we are doing it this morning ... More Fed Speaker's again today. Oh well ... Disclaimer: Trade at your own risk.
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Since mid- December 2015, if we look at the correlation (period 20 days) between GLD and the Tonnage, we can clearly see that EACH TIME the correlation was below -0.5, the price of GLD caught up to the tonnage pretty quickly . Still possible to go lower, but something has to give soon …