The Gold market, on the D1 chart, was in an uptrend until the 20th of February when a higher top was recorded at 1346.743. Demand overwhelmed supply at that point and the market started building downward momentum.
The price broke through the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages with the Momentum Oscillator breaking the zero baseline, both confirming a possible technical reversal in progress. Although the bulls managed to temporarily make a comeback, three strong bearish candles confirmed that the sellers were still in control. This was further strengthened by the crossing of the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages, called a Death Cross.
A possible critical support level formed when a low was recorded at 1280.644 on the 4th of April. Buyers again tried to push the market higher but a lower top formed at 1311.450 and supply overcame supply.
If the price of Gold breaks through the critical support level at 1280.644, then three possible price targets may be projected from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the bottom of the possible reversal at 1280.644 and dragging it to the top of the pullback at 1311.450, the following targets may be calculated. The first target can be anticipated at 1261.606 (161 %). The second price target can be predicted at 1230.801 (261.8%) and the third and final target may be expected at 1180.957 (423.6%).
If the top at 1311.450 is broken, the possible scenario is invalidated and will need to be re-evaluated.
As long as sellers maintain a negative sentiment and supply overcomes demand, the outlook for Gold on the D1 time-frame will remain bearish.