kaotic363

Gold - Long Term Perspective

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
121 2 5
The symmetry between gold's movements today and from the mid-1970's through the mid-1980's can't be ignored. At the current juncture, with gold             heading down from its early-July highs, we could very well see gold             embarking on its Point 6 terminal down to $1000. Thereafter, gold             could meander and consolidate between $1000 and $1350 for another 10 years.
Comment: The breakdown through $1200 is quite a bearish development as that was the early-June swing low. With the USDX breaking out to new cyclical highs, it is safe to say that the US Dollar has much further to run and gold much further to fall.
Comment: Could gold have topped out at $1220 here? Seems like some very stiff selling coming in at that level so far. Should gold break back under $1195 then the opportunity to setup longer term short positions could arise.
A few additional factors which may provide significant headwinds for any meaningful advance in the gold price would be the following:

1.) US Dollar Index Strength - Looks like the DXY cash may finally have a decisive breakout over 100 soon.
2.) Weak Japanese Yen - My suspicion is that the BOJ has unofficially put a floor in under 100 USDJPY.
3.) Commodity Bull Cycle - Most areas such as energy, agri and softs have clearly topped out in 2011-201 along with gold, silver and platinum.
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Very interesting, one thing that stands out at the glance of an eye is the move 1 - 2 in the 1980s version seems a lot deeper
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