chartwatchers

GOLD - Independence day trick

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
5526 41 67
You know I like conspiration theories. Just an interesting scenario as tomorrow it's the Independence Day in the USA.
It's a unique possibility to lock out the USA brokers and traders of their gains and force them into losses in gold             , gold             miners and silver             while they are relaxing at the beaches...

We had a super bullish sentiment in gold             , silver             and miners last week. I was watching the precoius metal market till the end of the day. It was a "black Friday" shopping day. Traders were buying gold             and silver             till the last minute of the day. So they went into this weekend with preciuos metal longs.
Almost daily maximum close. Monday US markets are closed. I think the Euphoria will continue : tomorrow we will break the Brexit high (1358$) at the Asian session. On Monday night ( GMT             ) we could reach the target price calculated from the pennant (1390-1400$) - it's pulling up price like a magnet. Every short would be stopped out and by the time US markets are opened gold             price would be below Friday's market close.

If we are tagging the 1390-1400$ level in the next 2 days I would take profit on the longs.
Comment: Silver is already acting according to the independence day trick.
If we print the daily cycle top today or tomorrow morning (GMT) market will not let the USA traders to close their GLD and SLV positions at the daily cycle top, as we will have a gap down open.
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Comment: The idea is not valid anymore. We can not tag 1390$ before US market open.
Comment: Back to the original plan. In the night we tagged the 20 EMA on the 4hrs chart.
We can head now to 1390-1410. (target price counted from the pennant pattern)
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Comment: They want price to break the 1358 level now.
There will be our daily cycle top. (1390-1410)
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Comment: For me it seems a flag which is breaking out.
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Comment: If anyone has short this iis the time to stop. It's not going to stop till 1400.
Thanks for sharing this idea. Sounds interesting and possible. What is your opinion on the latest gold COT report?
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hey I want to know that too
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COT interest was above 600.000. Commercials increased short and long positions also. Longs by 10.000. Shorts by 20.000. Commercial short positions are near to all time highs.
The commercial net longs increased by 14.000.
In a normal case that would be very bearish. I dont know what happens if we break the brexit high...
They were holding through the brexit... The COT seems to be not working to predict the price change right now.
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epalazzo chartwatchers
Thanks for your answer. I have seen the rising in shorts, which would indicate az upcoming downtrend or at least shorts in gold in the near future, but this time this is not the case. We have to wait it out, or the markets are just manipulated?!
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Would be an epic and cruel trick! LOL
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it looks that the pendulum energy to the upside could build up till the end of July and then swing brutally to the downside..
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why do you think by the time US market opens, the price will be below Friday's close?
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Just an idea. I want to be prepared to every scenario. US markets are closed. That would be an interesting trick to lock them out with their longs when the market is closed.
We will see who is controlling the gold market: China or the USA...
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mumuyang2 chartwatchers
Very interesting! Thanks for sharing.
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I can sense a bear trap set up coming. Every long holiday weekend is always a set up.
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traderzaius traderzaius
But it is senseless to trade gold very short to short term. A new intermediate cycle just began and we could see gold going to 1500-1600 before the next cycle.
+1 Reply
You cant have a beartrap here. Maximum a bull trap.
No bears left. Sentiment is 100% bullish.
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vchelimella chartwatchers
that is when bears attack ? its just my opinion i respect your ideas. Everyone on the planet is bullish and miners have gone wild they need a break badly
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traderzaius chartwatchers
of course there are bears! there are always bears!! :)
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If a sentiment is 100% bullish, then there is only one possible way =)
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Be very careful !! I think the last bear threw in the towel last week... $BPGDM at maximum (100) and $GDM at 23-year massive resistance at 800-810... COMEX will increase margin again very soon...
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the buying pressure is still immense
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meanwhile silver is just getting some disgusting gains
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NUGT... closed all of my positions on Friday. Hope for a Tuesday profit taking, this should push price lower. Waiting for a dip, anyone care to guess how low that would be?
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Here is a question for the day: If gold will follow the trick as well and make a gap tomorrow morning... what then? Will it go down a little bit or start rising tomorrow?
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Do you think that was it or the silver during asian session? or will it pop up again? was a great rally
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With your last update - does this tag of MA violate the idea you had here on it going lower? or was the idea just about the 2 candles being green and red but still up?
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Thanks sir
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Does the double price test argument for 1358 not carry water below in this case?
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It always interesting to value the opposite argument, as it is just sometimes due to a lack of taking more factors into account which I do lack with your knowledge. Any opinion Apri?
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Investment6300: interesting. It looks like a pennant, like it was before, but this one is much smaller. Looks the price is testing the older trendline (black line).
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epalazzo epalazzo
Also MA50 on the 1hr TF very supportive.
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Thanks for your feedback
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epalazzo investment6300
You are welcome. Although the price went back and forth through the flag, the 50MA(1hr) was enough support to push it back out again.
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It seems it's time to short..
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It looks time to buy DUST to me ..
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it is struggling to make a new break out of the zone...who knows but almost all its energy up exhausted...
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Seems so. Back to lower prices in gold.
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Lot of new shorts from 1350
They just want use these short's stops for the breakout.
It's cheaper.
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epalazzo chartwatchers
You must be right. It's up again. You mean banks are using these short's stops?
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Yes. The breakout is cheaper on this way.
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will see
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I hold some DUST. I think I should sell it. got burned
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Why would anyone choose to hold 'DUST' when clearly momentum is to the upside is beyond me. People!! Your only play here is to wait for the next DCL and reload. This is a BULL MARKET, meaning all surprises are to the upside, not the downside! Stop trying to beat Wall Street with your tiny little laptop, Lol :)
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Notyour Nightstar
wtf. R u talking to me? :|
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I don't think Gold will break that multi-year downtrend line so easy - currently at around $1360. It may consolidate here before jobs report this Friday.
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