ABOUT TIME MQP MAKES YOU REAL MONEY AGAIN - DRAFT 3 for FX_IDC:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - Bears running out of time to make something happen. This is worth an update.

SUMMARY - This is continuation from DRAFT 2.

DETAILS - See previous drafts for background.

NOTES - Will add with time.

Comment:

NOTES 1 - HIGHER INVERSE
a) for posted chart above:
b) at end of notes in DRAFT 2, I stated that there were 2 routes to 4/6-4/7
c) current extrapolations saying it's neither of those route, but this one
d) this is the HIGHER INVERSE OF DRAFT 2, where as the AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5...
e) was the lower inverse
f) so what does that mean for us here?
g) BEARS ARE RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO MAKE SOMETHING HAPPEN
h) the new floor is now 1945
i) if bears intend to change this out come, they have to move today...
j) and MOVE STRAIGHT DOWN
k) but NONE OF THE EXTRAPOLATIONS SHOW THAT AS AN OUTCOME

Comment:

NOTES 2 - THE STRONG TRADE
a) so now the values of the strong trade from 4/6 to 4/13, 1935-2070
b) is now 4/7 to 4/12, 1945 to 2070
c) this is the part that I have complete conviction in
d) my methodology thinks the latter move from 2045-2145 from 4/13 to 4/17 will occur
e) I want to be more sure about that second move and I know how to get there...
f) all for now

Comment:

NOTES 3 - THIRD CIRCLE

a) for chart above:
b) I should add a third circle for the drop on 4/17-18 to 4/20
c) because if 2145 gets hit, as I stated before...
d) it's a high value short

Comment:

NOTES 4 - SILVER CONFIRMATION
a) I wrote in DRAFT 1's DETAILS section that "silver will be our confirmation this time"
b) I wrote that on March 25th
c) since March 23rd silver has move 19.5%
d) I consider that solid confirmation
e) meanwhile, AG has move 40%

Comment:

f) SCRATCH THAT... hehe
g) AG (First Majestic Silver) has moved 28%
h) I don't know what the hell I was looking at

Comment:

i) while gold has is up $5 in that same time
j) again, I consider that confirmation
k) I will not deliver a separate silver chart
l) bc I do not have time for that mess

Comment:

NOTES 5 - DRAFT 3 boxes shifted up $10
a) you are reading DRAFT 3
b) in the chart all the way at top, the new boxes have moved up $10 for the next ...
c) 4 trading days, Fri, Mon, Tue, and morning of next Wednesday 4/5
d) the ceiling should remaing aroudn $2000 ish

Comment:

NOTES 6 - FILLING THE GAP BEAR?? NO, AND HERE'S WHY:

MQP PRESENTS - RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 3-6, I'M TOO SLOW

a) for chart above:
b) I posted that on November 11, 2022, roughly 140 days ago
c) from that time frame, that forecast has basically hit perfectly ...
d) meaning if you went long then, you are doing as well as I said you would
e) WITH THAT SAID...
f) that draft foresaw the "FILLING THE GAP" WAY BEFORE ANYONE ELSE EVER even saw 1950
g) but the numbers right now DO NOT SHOW THAT AS EVEN A 1% OUTCOME

Comment:

h) continuing...
i) that is to say that I am not blind, if it's showing bear routes, I will show you bear routes
j) but I have not found one yet
k) and the moment I find one, I will tell you that there is one
l) there is NOT ONE AT THIS SECOND IN TIME

Comment:

NOTES 7 - FILLING THE GAP PART 2
a) first, as I said to reader in DRAFT 1, NEW ATH & FILLING THE GAP are
b) NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS...
c) bc they can both happen, but in this case new all time high has to hit first

Comment:

NOTES 8 - meanwhile in silver:

Comment:

a) for chart above: this cup is going somewhere
b) about time for that decision

Comment:

c) forgot this line

Comment:

NOTES 9 - PERSONAL CONVICTION
a) I've said to a few people that this is my best work yet ...
b) or my highest conviction trade yet
c) this conviction is in:
1) seven years of developing methodology
2) I've dotted all i's and crossed all t's, completed due diligence
d) but I am still watching my back and making sure it doesn't turn on me
e) we are not going into this trade blind
f) that I can promise you

Comment:

NOTES 10 - SEVEN OF 8 REGRESSIONS SETS
a) I just completed workup of 7th out of 8 sets of regressions
b) all bull no bear
c) so what does that mean for us?
d) ahead of 4/6, I will deliver complete blind-spot free forecast for 4/7 to 4/20

Comment:

NOTES 11 - BOXES SHIFTED BACK DOWN TO POSTED POSITION
a) see NOTES 5 above...
b) those same boxes shifted back down to original position posted above

Comment:

c) so it looks like this:

Comment:

d) I kept the boxes in original position, but the hilight changed a bit

Comment:

NOTES 12 - I REALLY HAD TO SQUINT FOR THIS IN-THEORY 1% BEAR ROUTE

a) for chart above:
b) that rectangle MUST get filled w/ inverse of bull move TO BEGIN TO CONSIDER BEAR ROUTE

Comment:

c) by "filled" I mean that price must spend the whole time down there the next week
d) it also needs to have a good dip under 1925, maybe to 1915
e) this scenario would not make bear route a favorite...
f) it would only make it debatable

Comment:

NOTES 13 - FAKE OUT BULL FLAG BREAK DOWN AND SPIKE DIAGRAM:

Comment:

a) for chart above:
b) chart is self-explanatory

Comment:

NOTES 14 - SUNDAY 04/02, 6:22 PM ET DROP TO 1960
a) it's not going to anywhere quickly
b) it will zig-zag up and down for awhile around 1952-1972 for most of...
c) Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday
d) more decisiveness on Wednesday morning around ADP release

Comment:

NOTES 15 - MONDAY 1:53 AM ET 1952.XX (TAGGING 1948? EARLIER)
a) consider this:

b) for chart above:
c) let me be PERFECTLY CLEAR, this chart is for general expectations ahead of...
d) long entry on Thursday afternoon or Friday morning
e) bc my trade is long April 6-7 to April 12-17 depending on risk tolerance
f) this chart is not for day trading, which requires continuous updating (tracking by me)
g) so take it with some salt

Comment:

h) continuing...
i) from the perspective of this trade, it is trivial whether Mon or Thur is the lower low
j) again, bears need this drop (1987 to 1948) to keep going non-stop
k) if price stall here around 1945 and spike up on Tue to Wed this week...
l) from IRL perspective, bulls hold all the cards
m) because he most bearish outcome should have another visit to 2010 first

Comment:

n) typo* .. "the" not he

Comment:

NOTES 16 - MONDAY 7:35 AM ET
a) price swung up as stated ...
b) just 24 hours a head of schedule
c) read NOTES 14 and 15 again for general expectations

Comment:

d) continuing...
e) does that mean we move entry 24 HOURS early too?
f) NO
g) I will illustrate why later today if I have time

Comment:

NOTES 17 - CUTTING TO THE CHASE BC OF PRICE ACTION:
a) consider this:

Comment:

b) for chart above:
c) see that light red band (bollinger) with top at 1997?
d) so if price decides to test the top of that red band ...
e) which could easily happen in the short term on 1-min, 2-min bar charts
f) it should stall here and and reverse down to the flag area again
g) should it decide NOT TO REVERSE DOWN TO THE CIRCLE.. THEN WHAT??
h) wait a second...

Comment:

i) it would look like this instead:

j) continuing with chart above:

Comment:

k) ok, SO EVEN IN THE MOST BULLISH EXTRAPOLATION RIGHT NOW...
l) WE WOULD STILL REVERSE DOWN TO THE CIRCLE
m) ahead of NFP this Friday
n) SO IT DOESN'T CHANGE OUR PLANS ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM

Comment:

o) and yes... the MOST BULLISH EXTRAPOLATION...
p) STILL SHOWS A SECOND DIP UNDER THE FLAG...
q) I will illustrate it like this... hold on a minute:

Comment:

r) so then:

Comment:

s) so those outcomes, black or blue are BOTH RESTRICTED BY THIS:

Comment:

t) what is then MY DEFINITION OF "TURNING POSITION"?
u) so my IRL is constructed by regression waves which are defined by 3 variables:
v) TIME, PRICE, AND POINT OF VIEW (i.e. bar size)
w) this is bc it could be bulllish daily and be bearish weekly and be bullish monthly and so on...
x) for this ratio of IRL, the navv wave is 1/2 size of red wave AND IT'S WAY OUT OF POSITION FOR A BREAK OUT
y) bc its period is half size, it has to be IN LEADING POSITION IF PRICE IS BREAKING OUT
z) that is the definition of a rally...
a1) now take that RATIO x 8 times or if I have time, 11 times
b1) that will cover all "blind spots" of what price should do, from a regression forecasting standpoint

Comment:

c1) now replay chart way at top of this page
d1) and replay DRAFT 1, and AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5
e1) basically, just coiling to THE DECISIVE MOMENT
f1) so our focus should now be, HOW DO YOU CONSTRUCT THIS TRADE?

Comment:

g1) first we have to think of negative outcomes
h1) the only type that fits all these sets of regressions is...

Comment:

j1) I mean the NEGATIVE WATCH YOUR BACK OUTCOME FOR FRIDAY NFP IS LIKE THIS,
k1) replay this chart from 11/06/2022, 5 months ago:

Comment:

l1) so this was RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 2
m1) this was when my indicators picked up a HARD SPIKE UP COMING
n1) so replay it but zoom in to NOV 2ND, 3RD, AND 4TH
o1) you can see that the indicators DID NOT CATCH THE FAKE OUT MOVE
p1) so do we have a fake out move for THIS FRIDAY?
q1) yes, to the current floor of 1945 (which I said in early NOTES is the new floor)
r1) BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS THIS:
s1) in NOVEMBER 2022, the fake out took roughly 28 hours to complete
t1) this time? the wave composition forecast SAYS 4 HOURS AT THE MOST

Comment:

u1) this is why I said in DRAFT 1 OR DRAFT 2, that for traders that CANNOT trade 23 hours a day...
v1) YOUR ENTRY SHOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
w1) but for people who trade international spot market or futures, futures options...
x1) it would be right around NFP itself at 8:30 AM ET FRIDAY MORNING

Comment:

y1) I also want to be clear that IT DOES NOT HAVE TO HAPPEN THIS WAY...
z1) it's that CURRENT EXTRAPOLATIONS/ODDS say it will right now

Comment:

NOTES 18 TUES 10.04 AM ET
a) so it's taking the blue route in NOTES 17
b) and the 2000 marker hit 48 hours early
c) so there are two floors now for THURS retrace down
d) 1971 and 1945
e) it's not obvious that 1945 will hit bc we have 70 hours to NFP
f) so entry from this moment looks like 1971(or hopefully lower) THURS PM OR FRI AM

Comment:

NOTES 19 - 2025 SPIKE, NOW WHAT??
a) if you are still bearish this breakout, don't say you have not been warned
b) with the one unthinkable exception that we some how end up under 1945 in 36 hours, which is unrealistic and negligible...
c) the run to 2145-2165 by 4/20 is basically assured from IRL point of view
d) the HARD PART NOW IS WHEN IS THE ENTRY AND WHAT PRICE??
e

Comment:

e)... this spike is annoying bc it has not reset the curves on 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-min charts
f) and this won't happen for 24 to maybe 36 hours so to Wednesday night
g) AT THIS SECOND IN TIME, 1945 is off the table and 1971 is our best case entry
h) and it's not obvious we will be that fortunate
i) mean averaging says 1988 gets hit 48 hours
j) I am working on the wave reset
k) and considering mean averaging entry as a strategy
l) will post more when I know more

Comment:

NOTES 20 - SO LET'S START HERE:

Comment:

a) for chart above:
b) so that's bull flag plus expected price action for next 77 hours (i.e., to end of this Friday)
c) and then I add:

Comment:

d) continuing with chart above:
e) so that's basically what IRL expects for next 77 hours
f) there's two boxes above
g) first box is WED into THURS
h) second box is THURS into FRI

Comment:

i) again with chart above:
k) I added ADP, full moon, and NFP markers
l) that's pretty much it
m) a follower asked me how I missed the 2025 spike...
n) in the blue route from NOTES 17 i thought 2010 would hold...
o) the only way to catch that move is to watch 1-MIN BARS ALL OF THE TIME
p) why?
q) bc it only shows up on that scale as likely
r) and only likely once we hit 2000
s) my work, although possible to use for that, is not meant for that style of trading
t) our plan remains the same:
u) long THURS OR FRIDAY 4/6 OR 4/7
w) exit 4/12 or 4/17. again, depending on risk tolerance
x) as of right now, my scanners expect no more surprises until entry
y) if there are, we will cross that bridge if and when
z) and that's all she wrote

Comment:

NOTES 21 - I'm going to be frank with you here. 3:20 PM ET TUESDAY
a) I don't know if it will retrace or not
b) I've checked all the angles, and it MAY RETRACE OR IT MAY NOT
c) I don't know what the odds favor, bc it takes more time than I have to figure this out
d) so WHAT THEN?
e) so my position on this rally OVERALL REMAINS THE SAME
f) 2155-ish BEFORE 4/20
g) I just can't say with accuracy HOW IT GETS FROM HERE TO THERE BECAUSE
h) this spike is a real break out no matter which angle I look at it
i) the question is WILL IT RETRACE?
j) and I seriously don't know
k) this is not to say I have FOMO
l) bc I don't, there's always another rally eventually
m) there's 2 points I will make here:
n) if it continues up, don't be surprised
o) if it moves to 1975 ON FRI AM BEFORE NFP, don't be surprised either
p) that's it, I had to post that bc that's what I think honestly
q) have a good one and becareful

Comment:

r) btw, obviously if it does retrace to 1975, then by all means go long there
s) but if you get long now, it's 50/50 from my view if it retraces, so... not saying you should go long now either

Comment:

t) I will say this though, there's a 70% chance we hit 2000 again (it's 2021 as I type)
u) so if you want to go long, waiting for a 2000 is a great idea here

Comment:

TUES 4/4, 5:09 PM ET - IT'S 2019.80 AND MY SCANNERS PICK UP THIS FRACTAL:

a) what in the f?
b) I have to respect this signal bc it the fractal has stronger (relative) position vs..
c) current situation
d) SO NOW WHAT??
e) head scratcher for sure ...
f) so as of right now DRAFT 3 is dead and will not be updated until I know something

Comment:

g) for what it's worth, here's side by side:

Comment:

h) continuing with chart above:
i) what I mean by "relative position" is I run 7 angles on both rallies and the measurements for current situation ... is weaker hands down
j) that's enough reason for me to shut down DRAFT 3
k) have a good week

Comment:

DRAFT 3 HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED UNTIL PRICE PROVES OTHERWISE -- HERE IS EARLY DRAFT 4:

ABOUT TIME MQP MAKES YOU REAL MONEY AGAIN - EARLY DRAFT 4

Comment:

MONDAY 4/10 9:57 AM RE-CONTINUATION:
1) both DRAFT 4 and 4-2 are useless right now
2) for whatever reasons DRAFT 3 is the only onr that skipped closing hours
3) and the current forecast looks exactly like DRAFT 3 for 9 more days
4) and I have had zero time to make DRAFT 5
5) so until I do, we are here again
6) I expected this outcome somewhat bc my last note I said "discontinued" as opposed to "has ended"
7) but did not expect the remainder of the forecast to fit so well
8) it's 1988 as I type, I am already completely long
9) anything under 1985 is a steal and regressions say you have 235 minutes to go long now
10) to test ATH 2075 within 50 hours from this update

Comment:

MONDAY 3:05 PM ET
1) wow actually hit 1981, 1 off target prior to bouncing
2) if I was watching I would've added there
3) now what?
4) its 1990.xx and should spike continuously for 44 hours
5) or until 2075, thats my 1st sell target

Comment:

MONDAY NIGHT 10.36 PM ET 1997.XX from tag of 1988
1) we are a bit slow
2) but nothing out of ordinary price action
3) my expectations remain the same
4) 2075 in 37 hours from now

Comment:

MON 11:19 PM ET, TOMORROW MORNING EXPECTATIONS

1) this should be obvious but....
2) once the DTL breaks,
3) its 2032 in a heartbeat
4) this MUST HAPPEN tomorrow, preferably AM
5) if not, plans change
6) as of this second, I fully expect this to happen

Comment:

TUES 7:05 PM ET, DISAPPOINTING
1) looks like top & exit will be 2040
2) between 4 PM today and 2 AM ET tomorrow...
3) let me get a more precise zone

Comment:

TUES 10:30 AM ET EXIT LONGS 2003.XX
1) this is taking too long
2) defense requires us to exit here and wait
3) it's annoying I know
4) the odds of a 35 pt spike in this position is no longer likely
5) now what?
6) first thing on my mind is LONG ENTRY AROUND FED MINUTES 2PM ET TOMORROW

Comment:

TUES NIGHT 9:32 PM ET LONG 2008.XX
1) regression signal to go long
2) sorry for short notice

Comment:

TUES NIGHT 10:46 PM 2014.XX AFTER TAGGING 2019.XX
1) honestly, I couldn't have warned that much earlier bc I didn't trust price action in the morning
2) from last night, 11:19 PM ET notes, I said "preferably" in the AM, or morning session
3) this was because I could not make sense of the move happening 12 hours BEFORE CPI and...
4) 18 hours before Fed Minutes ...
5) so it really had to break the morning's 2008 high "with position" to get long
6) so that's it for tonight from me

Comment:

TUES NIGHT 11:08 PM ET, EXPECTATIONS
1) forgot to say that ceiling BEFORE CPI RELEASE at 8:30 AM ET is 2036-2044
2) if price goes vertical to 2036 w/in 180 min from now (so 2AM ET WED)...
3) it would be a good idea to take money off the table

Comment:

4) key word here is "some" because it depends if your TF is hours or days
5) this matters bc expectations for ATH before 04/20 is still strong

Comment:

TUES NIGHT 11:41 PM ET, CONGRUENT BOLLINGERS CEILING
1) this puts 7 AM WED ceiling at 2066
2) I will deal with this in the morning when I wake up

Comment:

3) this 2066 ceiling requires NO RETRACING/STALLING UNTIL 2051
4) that's all I can get off top of my head, good night

Comment:

WED 12:18 AM ET, CORRECTION ON CONGRUENT BOLLINGERS CEILING
1) 12 PM (noon) celing is 2066
2) NOT 7 AM
3) my bad, I misread the waves here
4) so 7 AM celing is 2036-2044
5) then correction to 2020? or whatever
6) finally 2066 should it hit, would be around noon
7) this 2066 ceiling is most bullish route that can hit
8) DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL, just means it CAN

Comment:

WED 1:22 PM ET, 38 MIN TO FED MINUTES... NO MORE UPDATES
1) it's 2008.xx again from 2001, but from 2029
2) I this price action stumps me
3) the only fix for this pattern left is straight up and I don't know if it should happen or not
4) I know where the blind spots are but don't have time to figure this out
5) this post ends here
6) have a good one

Comment:

THURS 6:52 AM ET 2026.XX GENERAL OUTLOOK
1) I need to say this so readers don't misunderstand my lack of updates for bearishness
2) if you replay chart at top of this page, we are still holding trend
3) the thesis is still same, 2040 ish first, amd checkdown
4) then 2075 ish and checkdown
5) then an attempt for 2130 ish then big reversal
6) all to complete by 4/20, next Friday
7) I just don't have time to forecast day to day price action to cover all blindspots to help daily traders
8) TO 4/20 MY OVERALM THESIS STILL SAME

Comment:

1:52 PM ET THURS 4/13
1) looks like 2055 is next
2) I can't see a check down to 2010-2014 anymore
3) thats as of now

Comment:

4) so 2055 then what?
5) zig zag to 2075-2080 new all time high

Comment:

8:58 PM ET THURS NIGHT
1) next high numbers ranging 2066 to 2082
2) no rhyme or reason which end its closer to, so the mean is 2074
3) after that?
4) 2020+/-20 before 2140 area

Comment:

5) again, take that info which some salt
6) bc short term stuff changes so much
7) but 2140 area by 4/20 still is thesis

Comment:

2:32 AM ET FRI 4/14, FAILURE TO BREAKOUT ANNOYING
1) failed to follow trough with perfect setup for 2074 area
2) means 2015 swing is possible again... sigh
3) outcome being decided in next 2-3 hours

Comment:

7:22 AM ET FRIDAY 4/14, 2-WAY VOL EXTREME ON 2-MIN BAR SETUP