I'll be frank, I was rather on the shiny metal an forecasted $1,035 per toz. in 2013. However, as the charade of lackluster growth and quasi-monetary policy continued, gold's fundamentals are .
It is too simplistic to relate gold to the dollar (in terms of performance) or . At its root, gold is the ultimate currency hedge; and if you have your money on the Fed to come out of this unscathed.. well, they will - you might not be so lucky.
Price action has been range bound forever it seems (please check out previous ideas), but given the onslaught of hopes and dreams of a global economic recovery, gold has been supported thus far.
A is a reversal pattern, and it could be worth watching as the Fed (and most recently the BoJ) talk down the dollar. The in the dollar is alarming on its own.
Price action has been supported by a large that has been evidence since late 2009. Clearly, a close below that is very , and sub-$1,000 could be possible but it might not be probable in current conditions.
Gold will need a catalyst, and the lack of credibility in the Fed will be key. If June and September come and go without a rate hike, gold could easily find comfort above $1,300 per toz.
To assume the Fed will rise interest rates on a single positive data-point (non-farm payrolls) is myopic. There are no trends in or growth.
Keep in mind, the US was in the Great Recession for seven months before the Fed acknowledged it, as it was still projecting growth.
Technically, there is support until otherwise broken.
MACD looks to turn positive on your chart :D But, really gold could fall like a brick if that supply zone is broken, on the flip side the longer it remains supports given the bearish sentiment, I believe the better the outlook.