FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
5909 130 43
Here we go. 10 minutes to market close. Nothing day.
I was waiting for a much stronger price action in gold             . We made a lower low on the hourly chart many times today but there was no follow though. Volume is a little bit above average.

I want to see the daily chart first of all. We tagged the 10 EMA but price couldn' recover. We lost the 20 EMA also. These are bearish signs. We couldn't tag the 50 EMA nor the Bollinger band . Price is just in the middle of nowhere.

At the indicators MACD crossed over . That is a strong signal for more decline. Slow Stoch is just turning down it should enter into oversold territory. RSI hasn't finished the the move as it should touch the oversold also.

So as I'm watching the indicators I think there is more room to the downside in the night as the result is coming out. Banks are preparing for something...

But as I'm watching today's price action I have a feeling that the decision already priced in. If it priced in that's the reason gold             cannot fall.
Miners price action is frustrating also. We couldn't print even a little drop in the last few days while gold             was falling.

So this time I cannot offer you a perfect decision. I'M not going to enter too heavily into this night. XAUUSD             positions can be managed during the night but miners not. So with the miners you have to make the decision today.
I will close some of the XAUUSD             positions today but I will keep some for the night.

And now they are starting to sell off gold             in the last 10 minutes..... Don't enter overleveraged into this night. There is always a next trade....

Comment: No MACD crossover on the 4hrs chart.
It's still in falling mode
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Comment: we might be printing inverse head and shoulders pattern
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Comment: I will have a new post with a few thoughts regarding gold today.
On the hourly chart it seems to me we are printing a pennant with a possible target price of 1400.
snapshot
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Hopefully, it may help... The red candle on the chart above, which here looks like a common movement, on my broker´s chart is a gap. So, there may still be some room for an upper movement and better entry point. Looks like night will be hot...
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ALL IN ON DUST OVERNIGHT!! GAMBLE GAMBLE
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isaac312 PRO XTAL.ball
lol crazyy
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I'm all in since 9.01, I'm pretty sure that Great Britain will remain in EU, but have some doubts if it's worth to keep overnight
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XTAL.ball RaimondasKarth
Wow, good buy
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all profits gone in 1 night...
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XTAL.ball RaimondasKarth
Well... fuck
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Thank you - did some house cleaning and most DUST gone. Save some for fun tomorrow.
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Nice big sell-off in GDX and big buy candle in DUST right at market close.
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gogogo ARPI gogo!! GOGOGO ARPI GOGOGO!!!! yeah!!! money money chicken dinner
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haha yeah! I hv been shorting from 1280 and scalping short bias with 2, 4, 6 lots
Doing well!! GOGOGOGO ARPI! THE BEST!!!!
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After poll is coming out one by one. Scalping might come back toward short bias or just hold short 6~7 lot
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So ... its falling Sir ... i think the first sample after 3 hours would be very critical ... invitation to watch
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Here is my take on the near future.
XAUUSD a little more down and a bigger move up
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Just a thought on why I longed on the vote. I don't know if it was the right idea but I charted my idea and felt gold was going to at least re-test close to the 1300 mark after a bit more downside to the .618 where there showed strong support. Also counting on the fact that most people and polls showed the "stay" side would win, price was already factored in. My theory was if they stay there would be a drop but not nearly as much as the dark horse leave vote. If they leave bazinga! I figured it was win win. However we will never know if my prediction would have been correct with a "stay" vote.
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Get ready with the longs guys, the first results are having brexit winning but its early days yet!
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Its close! @12:24 London time, 5 of 382 voting areas counted. 50.5% stay, 49.5% leave. http://www.ft.com/home/uk has live updates.
I suspect it will be a close win for the Bremain vote. I also expect the elite interests to sway the vote to assure the proper outcome "by hook or by crook". ;)
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Gibster Richmand808
its not really the percentage of 50.5 v 49.5, it was expected that brexit should have been lagging at this stage but its got its nose in front already, markets are now panicking as they priced remain!
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Gibster Gibster
im gambling a bit but long on gold and short gbpusd, still early days but brexit still in front!
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Gibster Gibster
16.4 million votes needed to win, so far remain 693k v 758k - still a way to go yet!
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Business is about to pick up!
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Leave won the race to the 1st million 15.8 to go!
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Gibster nahidik
I'll keep a running commentary for people that don't live in the uk

We are now at 1.2 million Brexit and 1 million remain,

Long on gold and short on gbpusd are coming in, +33% gold + 63% gbpusd, come on Brexit!
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Gibster Gibster
swinging the other way now 2.3 million brexit 2.4 million remain, still close and a long way to go!
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Gibster Gibster
its now 3.3 million each!
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Gibster Gibster
4 million each now, very tight!
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Gibster Gibster
Brexit now 5.3m v remain 5.1
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A long on gold? Puzzled me for a sec, but if you reside in the UK then you will go long gold v GBP. If you are counting on a BREXIT, your GBP will take a hit, so long gold against your GBP sounds like a winner! Over here across the pond a BREXIT win should make the USD soar since the EURO will take a beating. Strong USD = weak USD priced commodities over here like gold, silver, oil. I hope you get your BREXIT and I hope my logic holds true because I am short with DUST right now! Big day for you Brits either way.
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arent you supposed to be sleeping robin hood? ;o)
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Gibster webmiztriz
he's already been to the corner supermarket and got his women ready! lol
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lol
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Shorts are getting wrecked
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Gibster traderzaius
this could be unprecedented movements, my post 4 minutes ago is now gold +48% and gbpusd + 91%
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SO in case of remain,how it will affect the gold.............
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It will sell off. you kind of see now that it is going down when remain wins.
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mksiva005 pbartashevich
thanx bro........
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What a ride!!! I think I am gonna throw-up!!! :)
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Somebody please stop this madness! :)
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I guess they had to trigger those stop losses :). UK will stay in EU no doubt.
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Gibster pbartashevich
the odds are now on brexit, why do you think the markets are going mad!
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Geo-politically it is very unlikely if not impossible event. Look the second move up in Gold is much weaker. Looks like we approaching turning point.
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Gibster pbartashevich
this is the opposite, macd, rsi and patterns will not matter too much, its all about risk offset, the uk banks are working all night, the result so far is 6.4 brexit v remain 6.1
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Is Gold double topping? Does market predicts the voting results? We will see soon...
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Gibster pbartashevich
I don't think patterns will matter too much, this is unprecedented, just wait till America joins in tomorrow!
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nahidik PRO pbartashevich
I think you can throw structures and patterns out the window until the dust settles. Brexit creates uncertainty ergo gold rises, staying calms the waters gold sells down.
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Gibster nahidik
we still have a bit to go yet, but brexit is now winning half a million votes!
gold will soar more yet,
I keep adding to my gold position and to my gbpusd position
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We will win by 1 vote in the end. Strait LONG LONG candle down :)
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Oh-oh. Still they not going to leave.
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nahidik PRO pbartashevich
I think it is too close to call at this point but I am hoping they do leave. I want the Euro to dive so I can afford a place in the south of Spain! lol
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Gibster nahidik
if it isn't us Spain will be next, they are queuing up to leave!
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Will miners even be able to rise with the SNP down 70 points and the Dow down 550?
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Gibster hlavaty4
no idea about miners, Arpi is your man
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Gibster Gibster
I hope at least 1 person followed me and went with buy gold sell gbp as its normally me following Arpi, just glad to give a bit back!
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I know, it could not have gotten any better!! I was fully prepared to trade the extremes, but I was already biased in my opinion that there will be no brexit. So, I bought once at 1.4200, tp at 1.4550. Did the same again at 1.4000, got burned bad. But thats alright; lesson for life learned. DO NOT MAKE ASSUMPTIONS!!
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Time to short Gold? :) We are closing the gap somewhat...
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nahidik PRO pbartashevich
I still a 500,000 vote deficit. What referendum are you looking at? :)
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Gibster nahidik
yes remain is still half a million votes behind, although it isn't over till the fat lady sings! lol
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Does anybody know what happens if the brexit vote goes ahead but it appears Scotland and Ireland want to stay in the EU. Does that mean a whole new set of headaches? Assuming Brexit happens of course.
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Scotland and Ireland are Britain's bitc*. They aren't going anywhere
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Gibster hlavaty4
lol, they are, they cant afford to go on there own, I wish they would though!
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Gibster Gibster
brexit are now 722k in front, I think its game over!
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Gibster Gibster
Brexit has won! official!
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It over :*(
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Don't get too down. This is a knee jerk reaction. Pretty sure things will look exactly like yesterday in a week or so.
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traderzaius traderzaius
Brexit or no Brexit, nothing changes. Dollar will continue sinking. Gold will continue rising. Stocks will get artificially inflated by the fed. Commodities will blow through the roof in the coming years. The worst the markets look, the more they will try to balance it with a printing press.
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AL_G traderzaius
exactly gold will be at 1400 so this chart is scrapped, it was scrapped 2 weeks ago on bad jobs report
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Gibster traderzaius
im not down, ive doubled my account! can we have another brexit this week? lol
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Hard to predict any of this reactions.. is Gold going much higher and Oil lower? Any chance to make any "prediction" with your carting and analyzing skills? Any not too risky trades you wold recommend?
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At this moment I am just wondering if I can add more UVXY in the morning
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isaac312 PRO BjornPfaff
YEA MAN!!!! i AM MAKING MONEY TOO
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You guys underestimate the power of those who have unlimited money. I think they did not expect this outcome. Now it will be their move.
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isaac312 PRO pbartashevich
what is their move??
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Silver has already made an inverse H&S and is surely headed to 18.50 levels...Gold should either lead that or follow that :)
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I am not protecting my short trade but just curious what happens next.

From CNBC: "First — technically speaking — the referendum is not legally binding. In theory, British Prime Minister David Cameron could ignore the will of a slight majority of voters, and not make any moves to exit the political and economic bloc." Let's see if he invokes that article....

Also, don't forget UK is constitutional monarchy.
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Today's volume is just a third of The Thusrday's volume. Volume don't lie unlike price.
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pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
Oh no the day just started. Ignore please.
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Title "Judgement day" for short or long ? Cheers...
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Does anybody have an idea why gold is dropping? Maybe banks actually executing that hedge they made upfront and sell gold to cover their losses.
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Oh those headlines. I think British people will regret that vote big time. Investors money could start flying out from such uncertain environment.
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forged pbartashevich
UK will distant itself from imminent European recession or possibly depression. There are to many triggers. My fav are Italian banking bail outs, Greece, migrant issue & Deutschebank crisis. The young lion (UK) is smart.
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If you think the EU will leave it without any words you are wrong. UK will lose all the benefits Margaret Thatcher was fighting for.
We are not in the 1800s when slaves were working for the UK at many UK colonies of the world. In the 2nd world war UK gave all the colonies income to the USA to survive. Now UK gave up all the benefits it had in the EU. At the end of the day UK will still depend on the EU.
I think who is heading to recession is the UK.
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Time to go Long..??
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Ive close all my short position when i saw the price struggle to break 1250. And i have few bucks long position at 1261 which I follow leo yao trading ideas. I will only close when the price hit 1400. We only can short for yellen rate hike.
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Sir, what's the next step? Thanks.
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will not short gold. gold is the place to be with all this uncertainty. will keep my long positions.
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nikkki nikkki
BTW Arpi did a good job. He is a very open person and shared all his valuable views. Thank you Arpi. Hope to get your views soon
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Chartwatchers has gone into a cave....nobody was prepared for this...Im English and I can't believe what my countrymen have done...I guess we wait for the dust to settle and the market returns to a rhythm.
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jkamada Trendhopper