FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
5910 130 44
Here we go. 10 minutes to market close. Nothing day.
I was waiting for a much stronger price action in gold             . We made a lower low on the hourly chart many times today but there was no follow though. Volume is a little bit above average.

I want to see the daily chart first of all. We tagged the 10 EMA but price couldn' recover. We lost the 20 EMA also. These are bearish signs. We couldn't tag the 50 EMA nor the Bollinger band . Price is just in the middle of nowhere.

At the indicators MACD crossed over . That is a strong signal for more decline. Slow Stoch is just turning down it should enter into oversold territory. RSI hasn't finished the the move as it should touch the oversold also.

So as I'm watching the indicators I think there is more room to the downside in the night as the result is coming out. Banks are preparing for something...

But as I'm watching today's price action I have a feeling that the decision already priced in. If it priced in that's the reason gold             cannot fall.
Miners price action is frustrating also. We couldn't print even a little drop in the last few days while gold             was falling.

So this time I cannot offer you a perfect decision. I'M not going to enter too heavily into this night. XAUUSD             positions can be managed during the night but miners not. So with the miners you have to make the decision today.
I will close some of the XAUUSD             positions today but I will keep some for the night.

And now they are starting to sell off gold             in the last 10 minutes..... Don't enter overleveraged into this night. There is always a next trade....

Comment: No MACD crossover on the 4hrs chart.
It's still in falling mode
Comment: we might be printing inverse head and shoulders pattern
Comment: I will have a new post with a few thoughts regarding gold today.
On the hourly chart it seems to me we are printing a pennant with a possible target price of 1400.
For those of you who would like to have a look at the current Blees rating that Arpi posts regularly, you can watch it here (my own version, of course):
Do not get tricket by gold man, you were doing such a great analysis, you shouldn't turn bullish now! Commercial traders had a record short last week, and I guess they are even shorter after the Brexit spike!
Singapore22 carlicus
There was a record in shorts because no one, and rightly so, expected such a result. Brexit changed everything. A good trader adjusts himself to the situation.
Now there to be no hike, lots of uncertainty, nothing to make gold go down. Can NFP cause a correction? Maybe, but in terms of 2-3 months or even till the US elections gold is very bullish.
Arpi, don't disappear! No one believed in exit, I didn't either. Just have to deal with it now, and make some money the other way.))
carlicus Singapore22
Brexit has added volatility in one day. Today, gold is having trouble showing strenght. Rather, today has shown weakness signs.
Anyways, there are a ton of reasons why gold isn't going up.
I recommend you reading this essay: http://www.zealllc.com/2016/gldsudor.htm
It is from a guy who has been investing in gold for decades, and was bullish since november-december 2015, up to last friday. Why did he changed his mind? Read it and you'll discover his bearish reasons
Singapore22 carlicus
ok I'll give it a go. Thanks!
Read through the whole essay, not even once does he mention the word BREXIT! So, all of his arguments are simply invalid in my opinion.
carlicus sandhusukhjit
I'm sorry, but I didn't say that guy from zealllc did an exhaustive analysis about Brexit! I just said he was super bullish until this week since Nov-Dec lows and this week changed his mind.
In my opinion, Brexit has just been a catalyst for fooling more people into a gold bull market that doesn't even exist yet. But that's my humble opinion, and I haven't decades of experience trading gold .

Anyway, just have a look at how the gold is having trouble to stay above a simple measurement of long-term trend such as the weekly 200 SMA. It is clearly poiting downwards, and it is usually not a good idea to go long when that happens.
carlicus sandhusukhjit
Not to mention that the pennat that Argi posted in gold broke to the downside:
Wonder when we're going to hear from Arpi? This is my primary frustration, no communication. If things don't go as planned... Well, that's life. I would like to hear Arpi's thoughts about how to respond than nothing at all. I have my own thoughts about that but I'm no expert so I would like to hear from someone smarter than me on these things. So, how about it ARPI, we hold no grudges, give us a shout. We'd all like to hear from you.
chartwatchers USSRandolph
After Friday's monster move we need at least a day to see what's happening. These are not the times to jump in-out the positions
you can easily get caught.
+3 Reply
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