Weekly view: Since price fell from supply at 1205.6-1181.2 five weeks ago, several technical barriers have been taken out. However, over the past two weeks, downside momentum has diminished greatly since connecting with the Quasimodo support level coming in at 1074.6. Granted, last week’s action did still see a decline in value of around $5 at the close 1078.2, but all in all the bearish candles have certainly become less severe. As a result of this, we are beginning to see uncertainty in this market – note the two recent indecision candles that formed in between the aforementioned Quasimodo support and the swap supply zone lurking above at 1098.6-1121.7.
Potential weekly levels to watch this week fall in at: 1074.6/1098.6-1121.7.
Daily view: Wednesday’s rebound from just above the swap support level at 1063.4 last week saw price break back above the weekly hurdle 1074.6. To our way of seeing things right now, as long as the buyers can remain dominant above here this week, there’s little reason (technically) not to see a rally north up to the swap supply drawn from 1098.6-1108.6 (positioned within the above said weekly swap [supply]).
Potential daily levels to watch this week fall in at: 1074.6/1098.6-1108.6.
H4 view: Following the clear break above supply coming in at 1083.2-1078.4 on Friday, the runway north appears clear up to resistance seen at 1095.6 (lurking just below the aforementioned daily swap [supply] area). And taking into consideration that this morning’s opening candle 1078.2 has driven price into demand below at 1069.4-1074.5, which sits just beneath the weekly Quasimodo support (see above), we are relatively confident the price of Gold will likely appreciate from here.
As such, we’ve taken a long position at 1074.09, with a stop set below at 1068.25. Ultimately, we are targeting the aforementioned H4 resistance level, but we are looking to take partial profits around1082.3 area due to any residual orders being left over from the break above supply. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.