As we couldn't take out the 2015 December low during last year we can assume it's very possible the bear market has ended in 2015 and we are not going to see sub 1045 prices for a while... If the bear has ended in 2015, the 2016 low at 1123 is also a long term low which should not be taken out.
During the bear market we had bear market rallies after the yearly lows. The yearly lows were printed for weeks as a rounded bottoms with many back tests and whipsaws. (10-31 candles) These bear market rallies always ended with V-shaped tops. Traders became bullish in a very short time during these rallies it peaked in a parabolic way and when goldbugs bought the last breakout price turned immediately down and started to go down into the yearly low.
What I see in 2015 and 2016 is exactly the opposite. If we assume we are in a bull market we have bull market declines instead of bear market rallies. These declines are bottoming the same way as bull market rallies topped: with V-shaped bottoms(4-5 candles). And the top of the intermediate cycles are rounded tops just like the rounded bottoms were at the bear market's yearly lows...
If we break 1375 during the next 2 daily cycles we can make the call we are in a new bull market
I set this idea as a long trade but one should enter into a long trade on smaller time frame at a pullback
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Swing at the open...
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... and China's gold market is closed . They like to smash gold when China is closed. If we rally this week China will continue buying gold next week...
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We had the swing yesterday and today the follow through. I make the call the DCL was done on day 29 (last Friday) So we are on day 2 of the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle.
This is usually the most powerful daily cycle. I would really like to warn the shorts that it's extremely dangerous to short here. 140-180$ pop in 2-3 weeks is not impossible.
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Thor's hammer started to work.
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Silver broke to new highs. It's leading ahead of gold. Did Yellen and Trump agreed on no rate hike tomorrow and a dovish tone? ;)
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The Trump administration just fired the first shot in the US-European currency, and thus trade, wars when Trump's top trade advisor Peter Navarro accused Germany of using a “grossly undervalued” euro to "exploit the US and its EU partners", the FT reported noting the comments are "likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy." News of the statement sent the EURUSD surging and the dollar tumbling to fresh 2 month lows. Trump has finished the right shoulder of DXY...
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What a day!
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We are in a flag again. Right now at the top of the flag.
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There was a nice shakeout at the bottom of the flag...
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If we break up Im adding to the position.
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No breakout yet. We have to wait a significant close above the flag. Only when an hourly candle is closing above the trendline.
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Comments
BullCenter
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Really appreciate your ideas and analysis Arpi.
It's the same kind of analysis i like to do(both technical & fundamental) to identify trends, but i just don't have the time to do all the research.
bertcoin
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Very thorough and holistic (geo-political) analysis Arpi. Thank you for the great education on this. A lot of the technical traders are bearish on gold right now. You've been right on the money on this latest cycle. I do think the geo-political activities are playing right into the cycles as they almost always do! Don't listen to the American media on Trump. The heartland is 110% behind him -and- he is doing exactly what he said he would do. When the heartland's expectations are on target, I'm convinced the cycles will rule the day.
fdiazcasado
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This is a great trend it will follow next weeks.
frost1387
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"Comment: What a day!" ... Yeah, 5 killed and 24 injured in Eastern Ukraine today... :-( ....This is the main reason of today's gold rally
XiaoLi
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Very nice! I have been followed your idea for about year. I like your analysis theory and ideas. I hope you've already covered all loss from the "trump-elected" gold crash. Best luck
Staxs
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I think your Yellen-Trump logic is good, Trump does not want the $ over heating, let it rise by itself when the rate rises come, opposite of last year when they kept saying a rate rise was around the corner and we got one in the last month, yet all year the $ rose.
GrowInvest
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What is your target and when you think it will be reached ?
chartwatchers
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@GrowInvest, If it's the DCL we will rally for 3-4 weeks from now.
Target can be anything between 1250 and 1400$.
GrowInvest
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@chartwatchers,thank you for the answer. I think the price should first break 1220 for going long (weekly chart). 1200-1220 is now a resistance area. Good luck.
usef
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we will start a new bull wave we need to break 1191 and we are going to 1218
It's the same kind of analysis i like to do(both technical & fundamental) to identify trends, but i just don't have the time to do all the research.