As we couldn't take out the 2015 December low during last year we can assume it's very possible the bear market has ended in 2015 and we are not going to see sub 1045 prices for a while...
If the bear has ended in 2015, the 2016 low at 1123 is also a long term low which should not be taken out.
During the bear market we had bear market rallies after the yearly lows. The yearly lows were printed for weeks as a rounded bottoms with many back tests and whipsaws. (10-31 candles)
These bear market rallies always ended with V-shaped tops. Traders became bullish in a very short time during these rallies it peaked in a parabolic way and when goldbugs bought the last breakout price turned immediately down and started to go down into the yearly low.
What I see in 2015 and 2016 is exactly the opposite.
If we assume we are in a bull market we have bull market declines instead of bear market rallies.
These declines are bottoming the same way as bull market rallies topped: with V-shaped bottoms(4-5 candles).
And the top of the intermediate cycles are rounded tops just like the rounded bottoms were at the bear market's yearly lows...
If we break 1375 during the next 2 daily cycles we can make the call we are in a new bull market
I set this idea as a long trade but one should enter into a long trade on smaller time frame at a pullback
If the bear has ended in 2015, the 2016 low at 1123 is also a long term low which should not be taken out.
During the bear market we had bear market rallies after the yearly lows. The yearly lows were printed for weeks as a rounded bottoms with many back tests and whipsaws. (10-31 candles)
These bear market rallies always ended with V-shaped tops. Traders became bullish in a very short time during these rallies it peaked in a parabolic way and when goldbugs bought the last breakout price turned immediately down and started to go down into the yearly low.
What I see in 2015 and 2016 is exactly the opposite.
If we assume we are in a bull market we have bull market declines instead of bear market rallies.
These declines are bottoming the same way as bull market rallies topped: with V-shaped bottoms(4-5 candles).
And the top of the intermediate cycles are rounded tops just like the rounded bottoms were at the bear market's yearly lows...
If we break 1375 during the next 2 daily cycles we can make the call we are in a new bull market
I set this idea as a long trade but one should enter into a long trade on smaller time frame at a pullback
Comment:
Swing at the open...
Comment:
... and China's gold market is closed .
They like to smash gold when China is closed.
If we rally this week China will continue buying gold next week...
They like to smash gold when China is closed.
If we rally this week China will continue buying gold next week...
Comment:
We had the swing yesterday and today the follow through.
I make the call the DCL was done on day 29 (last Friday)
So we are on day 2 of the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle.
This is usually the most powerful daily cycle. I would really like to warn the shorts that it's extremely dangerous to short here.
140-180$ pop in 2-3 weeks is not impossible.
I make the call the DCL was done on day 29 (last Friday)
So we are on day 2 of the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle.
This is usually the most powerful daily cycle. I would really like to warn the shorts that it's extremely dangerous to short here.
140-180$ pop in 2-3 weeks is not impossible.
Comment:
Thor's hammer started to work.
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Silver broke to new highs. It's leading ahead of gold.
Did Yellen and Trump agreed on no rate hike tomorrow and a dovish tone?
;)
Did Yellen and Trump agreed on no rate hike tomorrow and a dovish tone?
;)
Comment:
The Trump administration just fired the first shot in the US-European currency, and thus trade, wars when Trump's top trade advisor Peter Navarro accused Germany of using a “grossly undervalued” euro to "exploit the US and its EU partners", the FT reported noting the comments are "likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy." News of the statement sent the EURUSD surging and the dollar tumbling to fresh 2 month lows.
Trump has finished the right shoulder of DXY...
Trump has finished the right shoulder of DXY...
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What a day!
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We are in a flag again. Right now at the top of the flag.
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There was a nice shakeout at the bottom of the flag...
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If we break up Im adding to the position.
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No breakout yet. We have to wait a significant close above the flag.
Only when an hourly candle is closing above the trendline.
Only when an hourly candle is closing above the trendline.
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