chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Trapped bulls

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
7928 104 102
5 months ago
When everybody was 100% sure that we are going to the Moon with gold             and by the Brexit 1400$ will be gold's price today gold             printed a key reversal candlestick. We turned down exactly from the The decline was 35$.

If the fundamental traders would have been right that gold             is rising because of the Brexit why did we stop today? And we not just stopped but printed a strong reversal on heavy volume ...

Gold             was rising because of 2 reason:
1. There is a possibility that we printed an Intermediate cycle low on the 30th May. If that was the ICL I have to say it was a shallow "nothing" ICL. It's hard to imagine that gold             - the most tricky commodity - is finishing the initial phase of its bull market this simple way. But it's not impossible. We have to be ready for this scenario.
2. Gold             is not ready with the ICL and the banks have a decline plan for gold             . For a real tough decline they will need all the retail traders and other traders to stop out in the panic selling. It's better to build a bulltrap for an ultimate decline.
Let's se what we have:
- We have a bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart after this candle the candlestick pattern traders are short.
- The swing traders will be short as soon as price breaks yesterday's low. This mission could be easily completed.
- Sentiment traders: The short term sentiment is very bullish . They are in.
- Chart pattern traders: for this we need to print a head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. If we have a pop up to 1285 in the following 4-5 hours the H&S is ready.
- Indicator traders: RSi left overbought, SlowStoch crossed and heading down, MACD wants to crossover.
So everything is ready. And finally we need a bulltrap at the top. We don't just have a bulltrap we have a bulltrap in the bulltrap. That's the recipe of a steep decline.

So we are heading down at least till the brexit. In the meanwhile the gold             will be coupled with the dollar again.
Most of the traders will not understand what's happening. They will stay hoping in the bulltrap .

As I saw today's decline I'm quite sure that at least we will tag the red or the blue trendline around 1235-1240.
And there will come the question is the ICL in or not? Are we making a lower low with a panic selling or not?
Time will tell...
5 months ago
Comment: H&S forming
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Bulltrap in bulltrap
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: We might test back the purple trendline .
If someone would like to enter a short 1284-1290 is a good place.
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: 10 EMA couldn't catch the price.
It wants the 20 EMA or the trendline.
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: The more time we spend in the yellow area the bigger the chance that it's a flag which breaks down.
We might spend here the whole day after yesterday's monster move as a consolidation.
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Try to enter into the short position at the top of the flag when you are scared and not emotionally at the bottom of the flag (" it's breaking down i will left behind")...
5 months ago
Comment: If it's starting this is the time. We tagged the 10 EMA on the 4hrs chart and almost tested back the trendline.
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Trendline tested back.
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: Let's see if the trendine test back was enough for them or not.
5 months ago
Comment: Ok so who wants to sell now this is the time
5 months ago
Comment: Stop goes above this candle: 1296.5
5 months ago
Comment: We have no business above the trendline
toothless
5 months ago
Thank you very much!
Reply
zjcell
5 months ago
already in dust
Reply
bertcoin PRO
5 months ago
Yes - Thank you!
Reply
ice_holly01
5 months ago
Thank you for your hard work! I have been waiting for your post. :) I SL half DUST today.
Reply
Nightstar
5 months ago
I thought for sure Gold would keep pushing all the way up to the main event (Brexit) and then 'sell-off' big time, but with today 'slam dunk' reversal I couldn't have been more wrong, Haha! Let's see how far we retrace.. either way, there's gonna be an awesome buying opportunity waiting for us at the bottom of the rabbit hole :)
+2 Reply
Nightstar Nightstar
5 months ago
Ps: You should probably check with 'Bjorn The Magnificent' first though.. just in case you're wrong Arpi :)
+1 Reply
saif12 PRO Nightstar
5 months ago
ignore Bjorn, the best way to deal with him is ignorance, if I can block him, I would happily do :)
+2 Reply
isaac312 PRO Nightstar
5 months ago
hey nightstart
the reason it started sell of was death of British politician who endorse to stay by a citizen claimed to be leave side.
This brought expectation of pushing the vote further.

Nothing changed.
The Gold is not manipulated.
It was a market, which can be swing hard by banks.
Bank is also a part of the market, but it wasnt before the major major event.
Arpi is wrong for this time.
+1 Reply
isaac312 PRO isaac312
5 months ago
Check some news about it.

The fundamental could be slight different by one guy, (it could be scheme by Brixit opposer, who knows.) This is a such a major major event so
Reply
JigneshRathod
5 months ago
very good charts and comments....appreciate all your efforts. i feel near term sure its going to 1240 at least. but if it hits 1284, i m buyer of DUST
Reply
jinyuji210
5 months ago
wonderful words! appreciate it.
Reply
webmiztriz PRO
5 months ago
Your work is amazing. ...thank u so much
Reply
box-box-box PRO
5 months ago
Great analysis, thanks for sharing!
Reply
IgorK
5 months ago
brilliant! I stay in shorts from 1241
+1 Reply
Ronnee
5 months ago
Well thought out Arpi, as always,, will watch to sell @ your suggestion..cheers and thanks..Ron NZ
Reply
Great work Arpi! I very appreciate your work.
Reply
Would be funny to close June below $1199. How bearish is that would be on monthly chart. Engulfing on top of engulfing with new high which makes it monthly key reversal and enables double top with target below $1100.
Reply
bracken
5 months ago
Anybody could see the $1320(-ish) triple top way in advance. That doesn't make it "manipulated". Not more so than any other technical level of importance.
Reply
isaac312 PRO
5 months ago
the sudden sell off was by the news Cocks Death
nothing is going to change whole a lot. If so, she will be named in a history book.
Reply
Tampax
5 months ago
I would only enter short if holds lower than 78
+1 Reply
xiiimik
5 months ago
Please, post on DXY.
+1 Reply
xiiimik
5 months ago
On gold, massive buyers (long term) are around 1100-1200. What makes you think that gold will not fall below 1200?
Reply
isaac312 PRO xiiimik
5 months ago
Soros, Drankinmiller, Tepper, Bass, Ichan will buy all in the bottom ;)
Reply
flukve
5 months ago
Solid analysis. What does ICL stand for?
Reply
Mikemaycon PRO flukve
5 months ago
Intermediate cycle low :)
Reply
flukve Mikemaycon
5 months ago
Great thanks!
Reply
Singapore22
5 months ago
Thank you for all your efforts chartwatcher! I've been watching your posts closely!
Don't forget there is a Draghi speech today, we might just have that bounce to the trendline before the fall.
Reply
deepen
5 months ago
Solid analysis.
Reply
AL_G
5 months ago
what makes you think this isnt a BEAR trap
Reply
mabaert PRO
5 months ago
patiently waiting for 1288 :-). Almost got filled
Reply
AL_G mabaert
5 months ago
it did get filled now what, she wants higher, its like she has a mind of her own
+1 Reply
val_trader
5 months ago
Are we now at the top of the flag ?
Reply
investment6300
5 months ago
I find so interesting to see the GBPUSD run with the XAUGBP while the support levels seem much more inline on the week/3h/1h chart. would the patterns tell us the same story but a posseble better point of breakdown looking at the H&S
snapshot
Reply
investment6300
5 months ago
snapshot
Reply
alialani
5 months ago
dear
really thank you for every thing appreciated
Reply
During this Gold rise Silver and Yamana (AUY) were not as optimistic as Gold and GDX, giving a tip that this move up is not for real.
Reply
xiiimik
5 months ago
Advise to enter short now who is reading.
Reply
Ok so who wants to sell now this is the time
+2 Reply
saad2 chartwatchers
5 months ago
Why do you say now?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO saad2
5 months ago
The best would have been at 1295 but price dropped 5$ in 1 minute
+3 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
5 months ago
I set the 2 levels on the picture:
1 breakdown
2 trendline testback
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO saad2
5 months ago
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/KEGFJXvf-GOLD-Trapped-bulls/#tc381959
+1 Reply
Bpot555 chartwatchers
5 months ago
What at your thoughts on $DUST targets?
Reply
boozed22 PRO chartwatchers
5 months ago
If people SHORT gold, then prepare to lose your capital....
Reply
Mannnassser
5 months ago
I did
+1 Reply
RichardGogin Mannnassser
5 months ago
me too
+1 Reply
EricBuss RichardGogin
5 months ago
get a room, pls:)
Reply
AlphaDreams PRO
5 months ago
Awesome! $$
+1 Reply
Symen
5 months ago
It has begun. :)
Reply
AlecTajveuxdire
5 months ago
wonderful man! thanks
+2 Reply
kizly
5 months ago
Thks once again, earned nice % with DUST and JDST, now hedging and my be later another round
+2 Reply
OTC12
5 months ago
Do you think we can get as low as 1200?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO OTC12
5 months ago
I think that's too far.
First lets see what happens at 1278. If we break it down violently then maybe.
I tend to think that the maximum is 1240-50. ANd maybe only 1260-70 what we can get.
Reply
PF7 chartwatchers
5 months ago
Arpi
Do you think we will reach $1278 today or Monday?
Reply
nnavarrete PRO chartwatchers
5 months ago
Kindly, would you be able to comment on the latest COT released? - Do we still have hope.. holding JDST since 12.50 :/ - have a wonderful weekend!
Reply
didar.alam
5 months ago
Thank you..
Reply
watsonzou26
5 months ago
short sell at 1293.
Reply
PF7 watsonzou26
5 months ago
good call! thanks
+1 Reply
Maybe we will see same pattern.
snapshot
Reply
watsonzou26 mathias.alechandro
5 months ago
4 hours chart is forming bear flag, it takes time to see gold going down. But we still could be wrong here, let's wait.
Reply
isaac312 PRO
5 months ago
Arpi, I hope you could be the legendary trader, but you are too focus on technicals.... Think about fundamentals and news, medias, other central banks. How world is reacting. What does it mean... If breixt happen, chez other cou try want to fo out too. Without being macro economist, you will not be the legendary trader we all trading view hope for... Cheer up and acept and improve to be next level.... Too much technicals
+2 Reply
USSRandolph isaac312
5 months ago
I am surprised you would say such a thing! But then maybe you know more than you're letting on
+1 Reply
Annette isaac312
5 months ago
Post your chart idea for juin so we will see who has the better idea ;)
+1 Reply
snapshot

Eventually, this will work =)
+1 Reply
USSRandolph captain_smollett
5 months ago
Looks good to me
Reply
isaac312 PRO captain_smollett
5 months ago
Why?? Next week will be full of turmoir of uncertainty.
Reply
isaac312 PRO isaac312
5 months ago
Perhaps after the brexit poll without exit, so staying results come out
Reply
isaac312 PRO isaac312
5 months ago
Technic does not tell the future event.
+1 Reply
watsonzou26 isaac312
5 months ago
So please tell me what tells the future event? Hmm?
+1 Reply
captain_smollett PRO isaac312
5 months ago
Well, there are several factors. Gold is sustained by Brexit only. Any news in favour of staying at the EU will autimatically mean a drop in the quote and will make bulls start from scratch. As an investing metal, Gold´s current value is incredibly low. If you check another safe asset which is Japanese Yen, the quotes went low at the beginning of the week but then recovered. USDJPY has barely moved today.

Also, "risk-on" assets are not being crushed. SPX500 moved down but stays on a very comfortabl range for a quick rally, same is oil. Finally, GBP has been growing since yesterday. Looks like everything is on a position for a bull rally as Brexit chances diminish. Next week there should by shakes up and down but that will be purely speculative moves. There shouldn´t be any fundamental breakouts of breakdowns.

Techicals also favour a rally for "risk-on" assets and a serious correction for "risk-off"
Reply
isaac312 PRO captain_smollett
5 months ago
Haha yep, agree but no one knows about election poll yet. Do you know??
The killer was such a stupid guy, typical british man I know. Remind me a holligan. Hedging by corporations, hf, pension f, is occuring thats why it dricing up gold when risk on asset still not crushed
Reply
ja.piotr.bor
5 months ago
It was temporal event with this shooting, I said that. After brexit in next week we can know, what to do. I think I will open 2 position on 2 accounts, if one will be wiped the second should skyrocket :p.
Reply
DiaTronik PRO
5 months ago
i liked ur analysis , i stopped my long at 1240 and since i ve been shorting. it was a mistake . burned a gd amount of money. anyway no one forced me to follow ur signals. so good luck to u next time. but everything about Gold is bullish , even if its manipulated
+2 Reply
pbartashevich PRO DiaTronik
5 months ago
Be careful with long position though. Gold retraced today exactly 50% on increasing volume and dropped back on big volume. Then is climbed to $1300 on constantly reducing volume. On daily chart that retracement is shown on lighter volume. Silver just retraced 50% on lighter volume. Silver retraced exactly 50% on half of the volume. GDX retraced a third of yesterday's move on light volume and painted a shooting star last hour on big volume. on hourly GDX chart it looks like completed zig-zag correction. Bullish sentiment is greatly reduced.
+6 Reply
Nightstar
5 months ago
I know some of you are dying to make a buck on the short side but if the Dollar is rolling over then what's to stop Gold?? Gold/Miners could easily whipsaw or trade sideways for as long as it needs to in order to reset Sentiment and then.. onwards and upwards! Remember folks, no matter what.. This is a Bullish trend, meaning the 'surprises' are usually to the upside, not the other way around. Ps: I'm not trying to dampen the mood, just giving the Bears food for thought :)

snapshot
+2 Reply
forged Nightstar
5 months ago
Awesome post. Gold will go above 1315 launch pad (resistance will become support) next week when dollar fall.
Reply
traderzaius Nightstar
5 months ago
I don't see anything stopping gold in the intermediate term. It might be oversold now but the bull will correct any type of entry mistake.
Reply
forged
5 months ago
Never short gold during the time of uncertainty, I said many times, bullish momentum is still in gold & epic vertical rise (January style) is imminent. The correction that occur few days ago was just a temporary roadblock due to a murdered MP, not a fundamental switch. Watch when all net shorts become net long in coming rally people don't sell. DUST is the worst place to park lMO. Good luck.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO forged
5 months ago
I just want to see what will happen on Monday. For now we have:
a) yesterday we have broken trend line from June 03.
b) we retraced back to it but did not penetrated, which is normal.
c) Commercials in COT went further short from 3 to 1 to almost 4 to 1. Large speculators stopped reducing shorts and added some. I think yesterday's reversal candle will speed up this trend and maybe push speculators reduce their longs.

I can admit that yes we have made new high this week.
+3 Reply
Just food for thought. Yamana (AUY), I just love this stock, painted a second half of key reversal on MORE THAN A TRIPLE volume. 55mln shares vs 16mln average. -2.23%. I checked back and I think it is a record. We haven't posted such volume even during crisis 2008. That tells something. Usually this stock is front runner.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
5 months ago
Same with KGC (Kingross). Interesting, individual miners posted big volumes today doubling yesterday's but GDX posted half of yesterday's volume.
Reply
traderzaius
5 months ago
You can't short a bull like Gold. This thing gives no quarter.
+1 Reply
pbartashevich PRO traderzaius
5 months ago
I cannot see how it can go up from here in a near term. Something terrible has to happen to push Gold higher. Gold bulls are getting too confident and easy to trap. Let's see what will happen on Monday.

GOLD is going down next week
+1 Reply
forged pbartashevich
5 months ago
That weekly chart shows 3 white soldiers candlestick pattern. Super bullish, rarely fail & upside continuation next week closing. Ask the main chartist, he knows what I'm talking about.
+1 Reply
Alland296 forged
5 months ago
looks like a head and shoulders could be forming and give us sesnsible people an opportunity to get in, minus FEDS hype for more increases
Reply
Alland296 Alland296
5 months ago
head and shoulders on the weekly.
Reply
Alland296 Alland296
5 months ago
sorry, chart not relecting last weeks candle. 1309 must very close to 200sma
Reply
forged Alland296
5 months ago
To be considered a H&S formation, the right shoulder has to be lower than the head formed in April (@$1307), Friday weekly candle closing was 1301, so it is equivalent height, can't be considered a h&s weekly. Look again.
Reply
pbartashevich PRO forged
5 months ago
This line is not a soldier. Soldier is confident almost full body candle. Third one almost half. In addition on weekly RSI shows that we have broken RSI trend line and made third high on lower level.
It is expanding triangle. Can be continuation or reversal. I expect a move down from here to lower boundary.
Reply
traderzaius pbartashevich
5 months ago
You may be right but I won't be trading gold short term. A new intermediate cycle just started and I plan on holding until it tops. Its very difficult to trade gold VST-ST in a bull market.
Reply
traderzaius traderzaius
5 months ago
You have a higher chance of being wrong than right if all you look at are charts.
Reply
traderzaius traderzaius
5 months ago
If you don't trust in the bull then just stay out of the trade. Shorting it will destroy your account. Heed my words from someone that knows a thing or two about blown accounts ;)
Reply
forged
5 months ago
Daily bearish Thursday shooting star candlestick reversal has been replaced by bullish engulfing green candle in Friday. Now is super bullish continuation on the next trading day (Monday).
Reply
JesseL
5 months ago
Food for thought from Kimble Charting Solutions blog....

"So far this week, Gold is attempting to form a reversal pattern (bearish wick). This reversal pattern is taking place at the highs of 2015. If this pattern remains at the close tonight (6/17), it will be the largest reversal pattern since the highs in 2013 "
Reply
chartwatchers PRO JesseL
5 months ago
The reversal came on low volume. Monday will tell the story.
Reply
JesseL chartwatchers
5 months ago
Do you think Brexit vote will be postponed? If so,hat would be the impact on gold?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO JesseL
5 months ago
I dont think so. But all we've seen on Thursday what is the effect if UK stays in EU.
I can't imagine any sustained move with this commercial short position.
We are above 400.000 and the blees at 0...
Reply
vin001 PRO
5 months ago
By keeping the safehaven nature og GOLD in mind, there is still room for GOLD to go up, I am planning for re-entry at 1246 zone. A test of 1310-1320 is for sure. When there is no growth in any economies and no US interest rate hike; GOLD has to push higher. Buyers are waiting for a better price. Some serious stops have been taken out

Brexit is just another cause for fear. Gold will be a "parking zone" for big investors for the time being .Only threat to long position is appreciation of USD as a safehaven currency; since other safe haven pairs are directly affected ( EUR,GBP and JPY). Fear of JPY intervention is the only resistance for JPY buyers.

Hope the Brexit vote will clear a lot of dust including US rate hike

Thanks
+1 Reply
Some other things to watch:
- DAX posted bullish hammer on weekly chart bouncing from 200 WMA. on daily chart looks reversing.
- NIKKEI reached lower horizontal line, a boundary of descending triangle and 200 WMA. On daily chart posted inside bar. Breaking up will turn the USDJPY up. Breaking down will devastate this pair and NIKKEI.

I am optimistic and think both stock markets will reverse from here producing positive news which may cause gold to slide and US stocks to rise above their current resistance.
Reply
PooyaSalehipour
5 months ago
this is the first time that i comment for your analysis. very clear, very amazing and complete analysis. i didn't see any long for gold. its turn to correction but always heart deep the people who have short for gold. exactly when people are crazy and ask them selves what is the next target for gold.. the market is noisy and i think the brexit couldn't change the gold price identity. it doesn't mean we have not the noisy market. the market is look like a ball when touch the earth. but last week we touch the roof. it doesn't matter if your analysis became field.. good luck everyone and who have short for gold.....
Reply
xmrtl PooyaSalehipour
5 months ago
for what it`s worth..
Commercial Short Positions In Gold & Silver Markets Near All-Time Record
http://kingworldnews.com/caution-commercial-short-positions-in-gold-silver-markets-near-all-time-record/
+1 Reply
harilaos
5 months ago
excellent analysis, thank you
Reply
NaughtyPines
5 months ago
I think it would ordinarily be a good short setup with decent risk reward from 1300-ish or the 200 MA. But with a 14-Day ATR of 18 and the possibility that it may chop around in here leading right up to Brexit, any tight-stopped short may get easily stopped out in the whipsaw ... .
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out