chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Trapped bulls

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
7942 104 102
When everybody was 100% sure that we are going to the Moon with gold             and by the Brexit 1400$ will be gold's price today gold             printed a key reversal candlestick . We turned down exactly from the The decline was 35$.

If the fundamental traders would have been right that gold             is rising because of the Brexit why did we stop today? And we not just stopped but printed a strong reversal on heavy volume ...

Gold             was rising because of 2 reason:
1. There is a possibility that we printed an Intermediate cycle low on the 30th May. If that was the ICL I have to say it was a shallow "nothing" ICL. It's hard to imagine that gold             - the most tricky commodity - is finishing the initial phase of its bull market this simple way. But it's not impossible. We have to be ready for this scenario.
2. Gold             is not ready with the ICL and the banks have a decline plan for gold             . For a real tough decline they will need all the retail traders and other traders to stop out in the panic selling. It's better to build a bulltrap for an ultimate decline.
Let's se what we have:
- We have a bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart after this candle the candlestick pattern traders are short.
- The swing traders will be short as soon as price breaks yesterday's low. This mission could be easily completed.
- Sentiment traders: The short term sentiment is very bullish . They are in.
- Chart pattern traders: for this we need to print a head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. If we have a pop up to 1285 in the following 4-5 hours the H&S is ready.
- Indicator traders: RSi left overbought, SlowStoch crossed and heading down, MACD wants to crossover.
So everything is ready. And finally we need a bulltrap at the top. We don't just have a bulltrap we have a bulltrap in the bulltrap. That's the recipe of a steep decline.

So we are heading down at least till the brexit. In the meanwhile the gold             will be coupled with the dollar again.
Most of the traders will not understand what's happening. They will stay hoping in the bulltrap .

As I saw today's decline I'm quite sure that at least we will tag the red or the blue trendline around 1235-1240.
And there will come the question is the ICL in or not? Are we making a lower low with a panic selling or not?
Time will tell...
Comment: H&S forming
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Comment: Bulltrap in bulltrap
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Comment: We might test back the purple trendline .
If someone would like to enter a short 1284-1290 is a good place.
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Comment: 10 EMA couldn't catch the price.
It wants the 20 EMA or the trendline.
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Comment: The more time we spend in the yellow area the bigger the chance that it's a flag which breaks down.
We might spend here the whole day after yesterday's monster move as a consolidation.
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Comment: Try to enter into the short position at the top of the flag when you are scared and not emotionally at the bottom of the flag (" it's breaking down i will left behind")...
Comment: If it's starting this is the time. We tagged the 10 EMA on the 4hrs chart and almost tested back the trendline.
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Comment: Trendline tested back.
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Comment: Let's see if the trendine test back was enough for them or not.
Comment: Ok so who wants to sell now this is the time
Comment: Stop goes above this candle: 1296.5
Comment: We have no business above the trendline
Thank you very much!
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already in dust
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Yes - Thank you!
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Thank you for your hard work! I have been waiting for your post. :) I SL half DUST today.
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I thought for sure Gold would keep pushing all the way up to the main event (Brexit) and then 'sell-off' big time, but with today 'slam dunk' reversal I couldn't have been more wrong, Haha! Let's see how far we retrace.. either way, there's gonna be an awesome buying opportunity waiting for us at the bottom of the rabbit hole :)
+2 Reply
Nightstar Nightstar
Ps: You should probably check with 'Bjorn The Magnificent' first though.. just in case you're wrong Arpi :)
+1 Reply
saif12 PRO Nightstar
ignore Bjorn, the best way to deal with him is ignorance, if I can block him, I would happily do :)
+2 Reply
isaac312 PRO Nightstar
hey nightstart
the reason it started sell of was death of British politician who endorse to stay by a citizen claimed to be leave side.
This brought expectation of pushing the vote further.

Nothing changed.
The Gold is not manipulated.
It was a market, which can be swing hard by banks.
Bank is also a part of the market, but it wasnt before the major major event.
Arpi is wrong for this time.
+1 Reply
Check some news about it.

The fundamental could be slight different by one guy, (it could be scheme by Brixit opposer, who knows.) This is a such a major major event so
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very good charts and comments....appreciate all your efforts. i feel near term sure its going to 1240 at least. but if it hits 1284, i m buyer of DUST
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wonderful words! appreciate it.
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Your work is amazing. ...thank u so much
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Great analysis, thanks for sharing!
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brilliant! I stay in shorts from 1241
+1 Reply
Well thought out Arpi, as always,, will watch to sell @ your suggestion..cheers and thanks..Ron NZ
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Great work Arpi! I very appreciate your work.
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Would be funny to close June below $1199. How bearish is that would be on monthly chart. Engulfing on top of engulfing with new high which makes it monthly key reversal and enables double top with target below $1100.
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Anybody could see the $1320(-ish) triple top way in advance. That doesn't make it "manipulated". Not more so than any other technical level of importance.
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the sudden sell off was by the news Cocks Death
nothing is going to change whole a lot. If so, she will be named in a history book.
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I would only enter short if holds lower than 78
+1 Reply
Please, post on DXY.
+1 Reply
On gold, massive buyers (long term) are around 1100-1200. What makes you think that gold will not fall below 1200?
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Soros, Drankinmiller, Tepper, Bass, Ichan will buy all in the bottom ;)
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Solid analysis. What does ICL stand for?
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Intermediate cycle low :)
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flukve Mikemaycon
Great thanks!
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Thank you for all your efforts chartwatcher! I've been watching your posts closely!
Don't forget there is a Draghi speech today, we might just have that bounce to the trendline before the fall.
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Solid analysis.
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what makes you think this isnt a BEAR trap
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patiently waiting for 1288 :-). Almost got filled
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AL_G mabaert
it did get filled now what, she wants higher, its like she has a mind of her own
+1 Reply
Are we now at the top of the flag ?
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I find so interesting to see the GBPUSD run with the XAUGBP while the support levels seem much more inline on the week/3h/1h chart. would the patterns tell us the same story but a posseble better point of breakdown looking at the H&S
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dear
really thank you for every thing appreciated
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During this Gold rise Silver and Yamana (AUY) were not as optimistic as Gold and GDX, giving a tip that this move up is not for real.
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Advise to enter short now who is reading.
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Ok so who wants to sell now this is the time
+2 Reply
saad2 chartwatchers
Why do you say now?
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The best would have been at 1295 but price dropped 5$ in 1 minute
+3 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
I set the 2 levels on the picture:
1 breakdown
2 trendline testback
+1 Reply
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/KEGFJXvf-GOLD-Trapped-bulls/#tc381959
+1 Reply
Bpot555 chartwatchers
What at your thoughts on $DUST targets?
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boozed22 PRO chartwatchers
If people SHORT gold, then prepare to lose your capital....
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I did
+1 Reply
RichardGogin Mannnassser
me too
+1 Reply
EricBuss RichardGogin
get a room, pls:)
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Awesome! $$
+1 Reply
It has begun. :)
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wonderful man! thanks
+2 Reply
Thks once again, earned nice % with DUST and JDST, now hedging and my be later another round
+2 Reply
Do you think we can get as low as 1200?
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I think that's too far.
First lets see what happens at 1278. If we break it down violently then maybe.
I tend to think that the maximum is 1240-50. ANd maybe only 1260-70 what we can get.
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PF7 chartwatchers
Arpi
Do you think we will reach $1278 today or Monday?
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nnavarrete chartwatchers
Kindly, would you be able to comment on the latest COT released? - Do we still have hope.. holding JDST since 12.50 :/ - have a wonderful weekend!
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Thank you..
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short sell at 1293.
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PF7 watsonzou26
good call! thanks
+1 Reply
Maybe we will see same pattern.
snapshot
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watsonzou26 mathias.alechandro
4 hours chart is forming bear flag, it takes time to see gold going down. But we still could be wrong here, let's wait.
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Arpi, I hope you could be the legendary trader, but you are too focus on technicals.... Think about fundamentals and news, medias, other central banks. How world is reacting. What does it mean... If breixt happen, chez other cou try want to fo out too. Without being macro economist, you will not be the legendary trader we all trading view hope for... Cheer up and acept and improve to be next level.... Too much technicals
+2 Reply
USSRandolph isaac312
I am surprised you would say such a thing! But then maybe you know more than you're letting on
+1 Reply
Annette isaac312
Post your chart idea for juin so we will see who has the better idea ;)
+1 Reply
snapshot

Eventually, this will work =)
+1 Reply
USSRandolph captain_smollett
Looks good to me
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isaac312 PRO captain_smollett
Why?? Next week will be full of turmoir of uncertainty.
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Perhaps after the brexit poll without exit, so staying results come out
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Technic does not tell the future event.
+1 Reply
watsonzou26 isaac312
So please tell me what tells the future event? Hmm?
+1 Reply
Well, there are several factors. Gold is sustained by Brexit only. Any news in favour of staying at the EU will autimatically mean a drop in the quote and will make bulls start from scratch. As an investing metal, Gold´s current value is incredibly low. If you check another safe asset which is Japanese Yen, the quotes went low at the beginning of the week but then recovered. USDJPY has barely moved today.

Also, "risk-on" assets are not being crushed. SPX500 moved down but stays on a very comfortabl range for a quick rally, same is oil. Finally, GBP has been growing since yesterday. Looks like everything is on a position for a bull rally as Brexit chances diminish. Next week there should by shakes up and down but that will be purely speculative moves. There shouldn´t be any fundamental breakouts of breakdowns.

Techicals also favour a rally for "risk-on" assets and a serious correction for "risk-off"
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isaac312 PRO captain_smollett
Haha yep, agree but no one knows about election poll yet. Do you know??
The killer was such a stupid guy, typical british man I know. Remind me a holligan. Hedging by corporations, hf, pension f, is occuring thats why it dricing up gold when risk on asset still not crushed
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It was temporal event with this shooting, I said that. After brexit in next week we can know, what to do. I think I will open 2 position on 2 accounts, if one will be wiped the second should skyrocket :p.
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i liked ur analysis , i stopped my long at 1240 and since i ve been shorting. it was a mistake . burned a gd amount of money. anyway no one forced me to follow ur signals. so good luck to u next time. but everything about Gold is bullish , even if its manipulated
+2 Reply
Be careful with long position though. Gold retraced today exactly 50% on increasing volume and dropped back on big volume. Then is climbed to $1300 on constantly reducing volume. On daily chart that retracement is shown on lighter volume. Silver just retraced 50% on lighter volume. Silver retraced exactly 50% on half of the volume. GDX retraced a third of yesterday's move on light volume and painted a shooting star last hour on big volume. on hourly GDX chart it looks like completed zig-zag correction. Bullish sentiment is greatly reduced.
+6 Reply
I know some of you are dying to make a buck on the short side but if the Dollar is rolling over then what's to stop Gold?? Gold/Miners could easily whipsaw or trade sideways for as long as it needs to in order to reset Sentiment and then.. onwards and upwards! Remember folks, no matter what.. This is a Bullish trend, meaning the 'surprises' are usually to the upside, not the other way around. Ps: I'm not trying to dampen the mood, just giving the Bears food for thought :)

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+2 Reply
forged Nightstar
Awesome post. Gold will go above 1315 launch pad (resistance will become support) next week when dollar fall.
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traderzaius Nightstar
I don't see anything stopping gold in the intermediate term. It might be oversold now but the bull will correct any type of entry mistake.
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Never short gold during the time of uncertainty, I said many times, bullish momentum is still in gold & epic vertical rise (January style) is imminent. The correction that occur few days ago was just a temporary roadblock due to a murdered MP, not a fundamental switch. Watch when all net shorts become net long in coming rally people don't sell. DUST is the worst place to park lMO. Good luck.
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I just want to see what will happen on Monday. For now we have:
a) yesterday we have broken trend line from June 03.
b) we retraced back to it but did not penetrated, which is normal.
c) Commercials in COT went further short from 3 to 1 to almost 4 to 1. Large speculators stopped reducing shorts and added some. I think yesterday's reversal candle will speed up this trend and maybe push speculators reduce their longs.

I can admit that yes we have made new high this week.
+3 Reply
Just food for thought. Yamana (AUY), I just love this stock, painted a second half of key reversal on MORE THAN A TRIPLE volume. 55mln shares vs 16mln average. -2.23%. I checked back and I think it is a record. We haven't posted such volume even during crisis 2008. That tells something. Usually this stock is front runner.
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pbartashevich PRO pbartashevich
Same with KGC (Kingross). Interesting, individual miners posted big volumes today doubling yesterday's but GDX posted half of yesterday's volume.
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You can't short a bull like Gold. This thing gives no quarter.
+1 Reply
I cannot see how it can go up from here in a near term. Something terrible has to happen to push Gold higher. Gold bulls are getting too confident and easy to trap. Let's see what will happen on Monday.

 
+1 Reply
forged pbartashevich
That weekly chart shows 3 white soldiers candlestick pattern. Super bullish, rarely fail & upside continuation next week closing. Ask the main chartist, he knows what I'm talking about.
+1 Reply
looks like a head and shoulders could be forming and give us sesnsible people an opportunity to get in, minus FEDS hype for more increases
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Alland296 Alland296
head and shoulders on the weekly.
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Alland296 Alland296
sorry, chart not relecting last weeks candle. 1309 must very close to 200sma
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forged Alland296
To be considered a H&S formation, the right shoulder has to be lower than the head formed in April (@$1307), Friday weekly candle closing was 1301, so it is equivalent height, can't be considered a h&s weekly. Look again.
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This line is not a soldier. Soldier is confident almost full body candle. Third one almost half. In addition on weekly RSI shows that we have broken RSI trend line and made third high on lower level.
It is expanding triangle. Can be continuation or reversal. I expect a move down from here to lower boundary.
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traderzaius pbartashevich
You may be right but I won't be trading gold short term. A new intermediate cycle just started and I plan on holding until it tops. Its very difficult to trade gold VST-ST in a bull market.
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traderzaius traderzaius
You have a higher chance of being wrong than right if all you look at are charts.
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traderzaius traderzaius
If you don't trust in the bull then just stay out of the trade. Shorting it will destroy your account. Heed my words from someone that knows a thing or two about blown accounts ;)
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Daily bearish Thursday shooting star candlestick reversal has been replaced by bullish engulfing green candle in Friday. Now is super bullish continuation on the next trading day (Monday).
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Food for thought from Kimble Charting Solutions blog....

"So far this week, Gold is attempting to form a reversal pattern (bearish wick). This reversal pattern is taking place at the highs of 2015. If this pattern remains at the close tonight (6/17), it will be the largest reversal pattern since the highs in 2013 "
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The reversal came on low volume. Monday will tell the story.
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JesseL chartwatchers
Do you think Brexit vote will be postponed? If so,hat would be the impact on gold?
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I dont think so. But all we've seen on Thursday what is the effect if UK stays in EU.
I can't imagine any sustained move with this commercial short position.
We are above 400.000 and the blees at 0...
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By keeping the safehaven nature og GOLD in mind, there is still room for GOLD to go up, I am planning for re-entry at 1246 zone. A test of 1310-1320 is for sure. When there is no growth in any economies and no US interest rate hike; GOLD has to push higher. Buyers are waiting for a better price. Some serious stops have been taken out

Brexit is just another cause for fear. Gold will be a "parking zone" for big investors for the time being .Only threat to long position is appreciation of USD as a safehaven currency; since other safe haven pairs are directly affected ( EUR,GBP and JPY). Fear of JPY intervention is the only resistance for JPY buyers.

Hope the Brexit vote will clear a lot of dust including US rate hike

Thanks
+1 Reply
Some other things to watch:
- DAX posted bullish hammer on weekly chart bouncing from 200 WMA. on daily chart looks reversing.
- NIKKEI reached lower horizontal line, a boundary of descending triangle and 200 WMA. On daily chart posted inside bar. Breaking up will turn the USDJPY up. Breaking down will devastate this pair and NIKKEI.

I am optimistic and think both stock markets will reverse from here producing positive news which may cause gold to slide and US stocks to rise above their current resistance.
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this is the first time that i comment for your analysis. very clear, very amazing and complete analysis. i didn't see any long for gold. its turn to correction but always heart deep the people who have short for gold. exactly when people are crazy and ask them selves what is the next target for gold.. the market is noisy and i think the brexit couldn't change the gold price identity. it doesn't mean we have not the noisy market. the market is look like a ball when touch the earth. but last week we touch the roof. it doesn't matter if your analysis became field.. good luck everyone and who have short for gold.....
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xmrtl PooyaSalehipour
for what it`s worth..
Commercial Short Positions In Gold & Silver Markets Near All-Time Record
http://kingworldnews.com/caution-commercial-short-positions-in-gold-silver-markets-near-all-time-record/
+1 Reply
excellent analysis, thank you
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I think it would ordinarily be a good short setup with decent risk reward from 1300-ish or the 200 MA. But with a 14-Day ATR of 18 and the possibility that it may chop around in here leading right up to Brexit, any tight-stopped short may get easily stopped out in the whipsaw ... .
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