XAUUSD | Bearish trend to continue...Maybe or maybe not...

Aug 2

Market Outlook | 02 August 7 pm AEST

Good evening all.

Something a little different tonight, the Monthly chart. 🤪

I know, I know, I always say we don't need to know where the price will be next week, day or even next session to make money and I honestly don't think I've ever shared a Monthly chart before because I rarely look past the Daily for my intraday framework but with a new month starting it is worth zooming out and acknowledging what the bigger picture is showing.

Since March Goldie has printed 4 consecutive bearish monthly candles with one bullish candle last month. MACD on the Monthly is rolling over from extreme highs. That alone doesn't mean much in isolation but combined with the liquidity pool sitting below, I think it is worth having that on your radar.

Not predicting a drop to $3400. Simply mapping out what the chart is showing as a possible outcome if the current bearish structure continues. As always, we'll let price action tell us the story and react accordingly rather than trying to predict the future.

If enough interest is shown on this post idea I'll post Daily session outlook as the month progress in the notes below.

For now I'll drop you some key levels to watch for those brave enough to swing trade XAUUSD

For Long:
Watch Zone $3490 - $3400

For Short:
Daily Watch Zone: $4900 - $5000

I am not predicting a drop to $3400 or a jump to $5000 tomorrow. Simply mapping out what the chart is showing as a possible outcome if the current bearish structure continues or if the price heads back up.

Plan. Watch. React.

God bless.

Aug 4

Note

Market Outlook | 05 August 8 am AEST

Good morning!

I see that New York had a change of heart after the pre-open (9:30 PM AEST) short we caught in the minds section and pushed up to sweep Asia's high from July 31st and closed strong.

As always, marking the levels and letting price tell us what it wants to do next.

Levels I'll be watching today:

Lower Liquidity for either targets or entries:
H4 + H1 Imbalance: $4040 area
Support: $4021

Higher Liquidity for either targets or entries:
Strong High: $4120
Resistance: $4116

Two paths from here, either the price continues seeking the ERL (External Range Liquidity) above $4120 for the sweep of that Strong High.

Or it retraces first into the IRL (Internal Range Liquidity) around $4040 before the next leg up an d perhaps further down to the $4020 support.

This month I will be focusing on one entry model only, beginner friendly, mechanical, repeatable. If you don't have a clear strategy yet now is a great time to wake up and follow along.

Plan. Watch. React.
God bless!!

Aug 6

Note

Here's a look at the bigger picture on the H1 chart and the key levels I'll be paying attention to over the coming sessions.

I'd like to reiterate something that's very important:

I'm not a signal provider. My goal is to share my thought process and how I analyse the market so you can learn to do the same by yourself. With psychology guidance and the mistakes to avoid to reach consistency on your own.

The levels I share are high-probability areas of interest, nothing more. They are not predictions, and they are certainly not certainties.

Price may react exactly as anticipated... It may slice straight through... Or it may never reach these levels at all.

That's why I don't place trades simply because price touches a level. I wait for confirmation, follow my checklist according to my framework, and let the market reveal its intentions before committing any capital.

Remember, successful trading isn't about predicting where price will go. It's about consistently executing your edge when the probabilities are in your favour.

Plan. Watch. React.

God bless!

Aug 11

Trade active

Market Outlook | 11 August – 2:00 PM AEST

Post-Asia - Heading into Europe

For all the Elliott Wave fans...

Here's one possible wave count I'm watching.

If this count is correct, we may have completed Wave III and could now be developing a Wave IV correction into a higher-timeframe demand/imbalance zone before attempting a Wave V continuation higher.

Notice how the projected Wave IV also lines up with areas I'd already marked as key levels of interest. That's where I become interested, not because of Elliott Wave alone, but because of the confluence.

As always, this is one possible scenario, not a prediction.

Elliott Wave is a framework for understanding market structure and crowd psychology, but multiple valid wave counts can exist at the same time. That's why I never trade a wave count by itself, I wait for price to confirm the idea with my normal entry model.

If the market invalidates this count, no problem. We simply relabel, adapt, and move on.

The goal isn't to predict the market, it's to build a framework that helps us react with discipline when the probabilities line up.

Let's see what Europe has in store. 👊