chartwatchers
Short

GOLD - Falling stars

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
... and here is our bounce on the daily chart .
The dip buyers have arrived and they are buying. I highlighted 5 falling stars on the daily chart at daily cycle tops where we got the next day/days a convincing bounce but on the second or third day the drop always arrived...

Sometimes the drop arrives on the same day, sometimes only the next day.
But it's coming.

I checked the COT yesterday. The blees rating dropped just a bit from 68 to 54.
It's not a big change but if you check carefully you will see that large speculators increased longs by 40 .000 and commercials increased shorts by nearly 40 .000. Commercials got out by last Tuesday and hedge funds were preparing for the breakout. But on Friday someone got out of this market on high volume . I guess it was the large specs team...
So retail is left alone on the top.
Comment: Plays out as expected.
Falling star day - Pop day - drop day
Comment: One more falling star..
This time on the hourly chart.
Comment: I see a decent chance for a night attack in gold today. Around 2-3 am.

Comments

Arpi,
Retail actually decreased their long exposure by 1,700 contracts. Technical analysis while normally good in the short term is being run over by conditions geo-political. Especially the crypto currencies.
I hold Bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin and Monero. Today Monero up $27.00 to $81.00 plus,... 51% on big volume. Bitcoin cash thru the roof. We are not in normal times. A year ago if anyone would have told you Bitcoin
would be over $4,000.00 you would have taken that bet 1,000 to one. Option writers (if there was a class, like S&P) would have been wiped out.
All this said. You can't short gold or Silver here.
Fear is three times stronger than greed.
Yes the Central banks will print and try to sell GLD down. Put every time they do it's meant with massive buy order. China seeking to have Hong Kong settle gold in Yuan. Their reserves way more than anyone imagines.
Gold will test 1,300 again this week. if we close above 1,300 on friday, Next Monday is going to be wild.
Call open interest is at 10,394 on the 1,310 strike. this is the magnet. i see the close next monday right at this strike.
+4 Reply
chartwatchers RobertZafaras
@RobertZafaras, I see crypto differently than gold.
Crypto is in a bubble. When the bubble pops that will be gold's great time.
+1 Reply
eagleeyes94 chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, why do you see Crypto as a bubble?
+1 Reply
Very nice!
I've got 2 questions, where did you set your SL?
And how do you know the positions of the large speculators and commercials and retailers?

Cheers!
+2 Reply
@ultra76, I never post stops on the free web.
If it goes above 1300 - and stays there - that is a concern though.
+1 Reply
ultra76 chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, Thank you for the link
Hmm I see...
Reply
1276 still the big, big test if gold can bounce off it strongly. But time is running out. Jackson Hole coming up. Would be very nice to see 1267.
+1 Reply
lord_kinbote SandiAlexiz
@SandiAlexiz, Agree. Are you looking for a DCL by Jackson Hole? 1267 would be awesome to see.
+1 Reply
lord_kinbote lord_kinbote
@lord_kinbote, then load the boat.
+1 Reply
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