We Got the Roll-Over for the 1500s. Now What?
Today is the unfortunate circumstance that can result from geopolitical and political news that I always tout is so crucial when trying to time peaks and valley's in the market. Unfortunately for those who are long, today was the day of the roll-over.
As I always say though, no bull market comes without corrections and nothing is linear.
Not to be discouraged though, because typically every 100.00 Gold sells-off. We saw one to 1402 from the mid 1450s; we now saw another one to 1506 today from the mid 1550s. I am expecting one more near-term correction from 1660-1680 down to 1615-1620 when we make it up there, before the corrections become slightly more muted in the 1700-1900 range.
I am expecting a rebound tomorrow off of additional key USA data: it is unlikely we will fall below 1506. I view the general market (Dow, SP, Nas) capable of short squeezing to ATHs or new records, however the chance of this lasting longer than a week or two is low. Gold and Silver may be under pressure and make minimal moves for the next 2-4 trading sessions, but I am expecting data tomorrow (Friday) and ECB meetings next week to act as a catalyst to drive Gold higher by the end of next week.
My October 1 target remains as 1600+
My December 31st target remains as 1900+
Over the next 7-8 days I am expecting some type of negative news from someone/somewhere to drive this market (Dow, SP, Nas) down, otherwise Trump can kiss his rate cut for September and perhaps the rest of the year goodbye. The market has accounted for 75bps of cuts before 2020 and at this rate it may not even get any. As long as Powell remains dovish on rate cuts (which he will), this should have little overall impact on Gold longer than a 24 hour sentiment.
- zSplit
As I always say though, no bull market comes without corrections and nothing is linear.
Not to be discouraged though, because typically every 100.00 Gold sells-off. We saw one to 1402 from the mid 1450s; we now saw another one to 1506 today from the mid 1550s. I am expecting one more near-term correction from 1660-1680 down to 1615-1620 when we make it up there, before the corrections become slightly more muted in the 1700-1900 range.
I am expecting a rebound tomorrow off of additional key USA data: it is unlikely we will fall below 1506. I view the general market (Dow, SP, Nas) capable of short squeezing to ATHs or new records, however the chance of this lasting longer than a week or two is low. Gold and Silver may be under pressure and make minimal moves for the next 2-4 trading sessions, but I am expecting data tomorrow (Friday) and ECB meetings next week to act as a catalyst to drive Gold higher by the end of next week.
My October 1 target remains as 1600+
My December 31st target remains as 1900+
Over the next 7-8 days I am expecting some type of negative news from someone/somewhere to drive this market (Dow, SP, Nas) down, otherwise Trump can kiss his rate cut for September and perhaps the rest of the year goodbye. The market has accounted for 75bps of cuts before 2020 and at this rate it may not even get any. As long as Powell remains dovish on rate cuts (which he will), this should have little overall impact on Gold longer than a 24 hour sentiment.
- zSplit