"If price consistently sit on $1,238, then price tend to test $1,305/10 (at least to test the 2nd or 1st handle), to determine whether to continue or again"
The technical reasons underlying of my view are as follows :
1. In a bear market, the oldest at least needs 1 year to seek the next lower, after the $1,180 June 2013 low, with the average level of downside is around $1,335/30 and ideally ends in June 2014. Therefor I classify the decrease of the price from $1,345 on July 10, 2014 to $1,229 on September 12, 2014 is the end of bear market to find the next lower.
2. In a bull market, the oldest at least needs 2 years to seek the next lower, after the $1,180 June 2013 low, with the average level of downside is around $1,305/10.
The relationship between the youngest and the oldest are as follows :
If the youngest found after down trend of the oldest and the youngest posture is shorter or smaller, then it tend to interpret an indication that in the near future there will be a change in trend may be imminent. These indications can be identified from the average level of downside of the youngest to reach it target under $1,180. The average level of downside are at $1,228 or above $1,215 (under $1,215 will trigger bear again) and if the youngest actually comes with a shorter or smaller posture, may temporarily it will change my view that gold prices might not be too far to fall in to $ 1,000.
Therefore, if the currently price movement is looking for the next lower for the oldest in a bull market, then the oldest have 10 months ahead of time from now with at least the first, price should give the confirmation signal at $1,305/10 as it average level of downside.
By looking at their characteristics and Weekly Closing Price around $1,229, then in my view $1,228 or above $1,215 is a point that has the possibility to going long with the first obstacle point at $1,240/48.
From The Desk Of A Newbie