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IvanLabrie
Jul 2, 2015 2:51 PM

Gold: Interesting Gaussian distribution 

Gold/U.S. DollarFXCM

Description

The chart describes an interesting setup.
I'll go short now with a small risk of 0.50%, aiming for the targets below.
Time at mode signals these areas as potential targets and reversal zones, and there's interesting fibonacci confluence there as well.
The fundamental background also suggests it's possible to see this setup pan out.
Whatever the outcome of the greek referendum, I'll monitor these levels and look to cover the short in profit and go long to retest the monthly mode asap.
Good luck,
Ivan.
Comments
AndyM
There is indeed some downside to 1230-1240 from EW perspective, and then we may see a very good movement up..
FDNYret
Congratulations, you called perfectly so far. Gold is at a critical level here, make or break. I'm long and expect $1130 to hold. We'll know in time. Great trade and analysis on your part. Good Luck.
IvanLabrie
Ok, watching eagerly to buy.
We might see a bottom form around here.
IvanLabrie
Entered a spread trade today, shorted gold and went long silver with no stops. Risk is 1%.
IvanLabrie
Risk off rally, small one.
No serious move until London/NY for sure.
I'll watch it closely, I want to go long, but doesn't look like the right time for it.
YuzukiChan
Random walk and the Gaussian are closely related so the distribution of course might have some use in trading. Hope this one works!
IvanLabrie
It's rotating around the fair value area, which is the monthly mode.
There's pending downside to balance the distribution (comparing the distance from the recent highs to the mode).
Once it's balanced, I'll go long to revert to the mean.
If it crosses up, it will most likely retest the highs.
IvanLabrie
In EW terms, it's probably forming a contracting triangle, and this would be a C leg of a WXY/ZZ thing.
IvanLabrie
And very close to hitting the first target.
Watching, I want to go long once it's ripe.
bilk29
thank you
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