chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - COT (2016.11.06)

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   GOLD / US DOLLAR
7388 104 63
3 months ago
I have to post the COT again because I see a few beginner traders are starting to misunderstand these numbers again. The COT is not bearish at all yet.
The Commitment of Traders report (COT) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data. The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report. We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .
Source : http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1478287895.php

The large speculators long contracts are increasing for the 3rd week : 274k->285k->288k (sum:+14k)
The large speculators short contracts are decreasing for the 3rd week : 95k->88k->73k (sum:-22k )
So the large speculator net short position decreased by : 36k.

The commercial net short position increased by (203k->217k->239k) 36k during the last 3 weeks.
So actually nothing happened. A few large speculators gave 36k contracts to the commercials.
It seems to me commercials are not in a big hurry to open shorts before the elections.

The commercial net short position needs to be above 300k and I even think closer to 400k before a decline can start... Also the blees should be between 10 and 0 when we start to fall. With blees 30 we can rally even 100$...

I think we are going to test at least 1343-1350 next week.

..and Trump is gaining momentum , the U.S. presidential race continues to tighten. By Tuesday it will be 50-50%.
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/new-poll-clinton-lead-shrinks-as-trump-gains-momentum/FFA5555A-F9FF-4024-A820-2FFD42ABB09E.html


3 months ago
Comment: 99% of the cases gold is filling the gaps.
3 months ago
Comment: In the next hours...
3 months ago
Comment: Watch the EurUsd : it has already closed its gap. It's leading DXY now - so DXY will continue its fall soon.
snapshot
3 months ago
Comment: Bjorn, let me guess : You are long now from 1279 just forgot to share with us.
LOL
3 months ago
Comment: Now it's obvious that this election going to be very tight. So get ready that gold will bounce off its HCL finally.
3 months ago
Comment: BOOM
3 months ago
Comment: BOOM - This is for you bjorn.
3 months ago
Comment: Told you this is going to be a 2nd Brexit event.
BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Gold will open up with a gap down ..
+4 Reply
hleivacr BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Genius!!! open around 1292
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shawn.ctech BjornPfaff
3 months ago
I like his work, but i hate to say i told you so to the readers here. dont get me wrong im bullish on Gold longterm, but you can read from my previous posts that we have one more leg down until the CPI data which will be lower than expected then Gold takes off for good.
+1 Reply
faronf shawn.ctech
3 months ago
what was you timeline for this last leg down again Shawn...are we looking a week or two?
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shawn.ctech faronf
3 months ago
Possibly, Nov 14-15th. Markets wont wait for the actual CPI data. Again, people dont pay too much attention to the bond market since they are borring. But, you can get your clue from the 3 year treasury yield, as soon as you see the yields turning which they do ahead of the Dollar and Gold, thats a safe spot to open your position. Im not sure if we see a lower low, its possible.
+2 Reply
AhmedKhattab
3 months ago
what is the reason of this gap?
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val_trader
3 months ago
"FBI director: new Hillary Clinton emails show no criminal wrongdoing"

... and the gold goes down ...
+2 Reply
TPparadigma
3 months ago
dafuq bro is that text in update section? :D
+1 Reply
QuasiDodo TPparadigma
3 months ago
weird.! this is what he said:
Comment 1: 99% of the cases gold is filling the gaps.
Comment 2: In the next hours...
Comment 3: Watch the EurUsd : it has already closed its gap. It's leading DXY now - so DXY will continue its fall soon.
+2 Reply
TPparadigma QuasiDodo
3 months ago
I know, I can read it, but why it is vertical.. I have no Idea..
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staurum PRO TPparadigma
3 months ago
@TPparadigma , i think Arpi meant to say: "Please read *the price and its message* vertically, not horizontally". It's like we always read the sentence from its start, never from its end. lol.... so Arpi, please correct me if i'm wrong, according to the author gold will be attracted like a magnet to 130x.
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AhmedKhattab TPparadigma
3 months ago
to be famillier with filling the gap
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BjornPfaff
3 months ago
I don't know where you see that the Eur closed its gap man :-)))
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BjornPfaff
3 months ago
So Maëstro , was it a surprise ? ;) looks like we are heading down to 1280 enjoyyy
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Notyour BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Can we have a more constructive discussion? We are here to make money, not to make a comparison of our penXs ..
+8 Reply
webmiztriz PRO Notyour
3 months ago
LOL
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vikingaskepp Notyour
3 months ago
not all of us....
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shawn.ctech Notyour
3 months ago
You are absolutely correct Notyour. Read my comment above.
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff BjornPfaff
3 months ago
And my target hit 1280 ! ;) this is how we trade arpi . Not with your "BOOM" visions :))
+2 Reply
Teflonjohn907 BjornPfaff
3 months ago
dude iv been trying to stomach your comments for months, you have got to be the cheesiest small dicked dude iv ever seen. iv even been on the same trade as you on some occasions, but there is such thing as shitty winner. have a little class when you make a good trade. id call you a cunt, but you lack the depth and the warmth.
+8 Reply
Nightstar Teflonjohn907
3 months ago
I said something along those lines a couple of months ago and my comment got 'deleted' by some Tradingview Moderator who can't tell the difference between his A** and his elbow, Lol! Let's see if this one sticks.
+3 Reply
BjornPfaff Nightstar
3 months ago
let me guess, you are in a big loss :))))
+1 Reply
Teflonjohn907 BjornPfaff
3 months ago
im not because I know how to hedge my positions...its just beyond annoying (win or lose) to see someone like you so condescending and cheap with your replies...like my kids when one has a piece of candy waving it in the others face....youre just cheesy man...just makes you look like a full blown clown is all. not to take anything away from your trades, I root for all people to make money, but win or lose, I know how to do so with class, to which, you know nothing of- clown school
+4 Reply
chartwatchers PRO BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Just as I told you before we are trading for 100s of dollars . Not 1-2 dollars.
Go back to your sandbox. We just printed a 50$ rally in 2 hrs.
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vikingaskepp
3 months ago
Thank you for the update. Much appreciated.
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BjornPfaff
3 months ago
There was no way back huh arpi :) let's see if it will hit my target of 1280 ;)
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NihalCassim BjornPfaff
3 months ago
so is it a buy here at 1280?
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chartwatchers PRO NihalCassim
3 months ago
When we will be above 1300 he will be long from 1280.
LOL
+8 Reply
RAZRus BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Bjorn stop hating, public your own ideas and charts on your page
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BjornPfaff RAZRus
3 months ago
Man im not hating , i just warn you all , i saw the gap coming in gold , i knew it would not go higher like Arpi say , sorry im realistic , many here are dreaming
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Nightstar BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Bjorn.. How many times do I have to tell you? You're a dick. Stop being a dick and all will be good in the world :) It's that simple.
+4 Reply
BjornPfaff Nightstar
3 months ago
Stuck with your long ? HAHA , control your emotions man , don't need to use those bad words HAHA , enjoy the ride !
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Nightstar BjornPfaff
3 months ago
You still don't get it. Sad.
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff Nightstar
3 months ago
Sad ? Olalla, why its sad , i know one thing that's sad, and that is that people like you are letting you misguide by others ;-) Im feeling happy to see what is going on here really i am :-)
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Teflonjohn907 Nightstar
3 months ago
he cant muster enough synapses for that. personally I think the guys full of sht. hes not making trades, haven't seen one single chart posted, no threads of his own, just comments AFTER the trade....hmmmm? I remember Arpi calling him out on that very thing a couple of months ago. ignoring this chucklehead from here on out...stinking up this thread
+2 Reply
Calamity BjornPfaff
3 months ago
the gap could be filled , but the trick is the time needed is normally 2-3 days, which covers the election.
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chartwatchers PRO BjornPfaff
3 months ago
You posted the gap story 10 minutes later when Comey released the news. Even a 1 year old baby knew a gap was coming.
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Mitasse BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Could you please provide us with the link so we can see your post about your target of gold at $1280? Or maybe you are just using Projack last short gold idea and making look like you can actually chart something? Get a life man.
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BjornPfaff Mitasse
3 months ago
search my comments look for my name , i predicted the cap down , and my short position instead of all you peoples longs here. I should get a life ? haha man ... i have one , better then yours , i wouldn't hessitate about that :)
+1 Reply
-Andrew- PRO BjornPfaff
3 months ago
hmmmm - Don't see any charts that you've published mate...lol
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shinsky BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Are you waiting for the "CAP" down to 1250?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO shinsky
3 months ago
I think he has to wait at the 1270$ station even for decades.
We might never see 1250$ again in our life.
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Bearbud BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Bjorn,

I went to your page and you have no published ideas. If you are so smart why don't you share your ideas with the rest of us?

At least Arpi shares his ideas, and no one is correct 100% of the time. Sounds like you are bitter about a bad trade, let it go it will set you free!!!
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff Bearbud
3 months ago
About a bad trade ? Man Arpi has given a bad trade before ... look to my post everyone was long when i said and warned that it would fall. It will go higher now , so now im long, and just look what gold will do. it will fill the gap starting when the President has been chosen. So before having a comment on what i said before.. try to follow me and you'll see the difference with Arpi.
Reply
usef
3 months ago
hey arpi,
until now gold is having a target 1270 coz it breaks the hidden support 1286 with long red candle that means technically that this long red candle have to be all covered to start to reach this numbers
lets think together step by step to gain money all of us:
and i need your comment about this
if breaks 1289 he will have a target 1305 - 1307
if it breaks 1307 he will reach 1323 the trend line from last triangle
if it breaks 1324 he will fly
and in my opinion it will reach again 1250

thank you,
Reply
usef usef
3 months ago
this red candle i meant the gap
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usef usef
3 months ago
and 1286 the support for the double top that we were speaking about last post
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Comment removed
Singapore22 BjornPfaff
3 months ago
This is a pre-election trap in my opinion. Worst case scenario will have something similar to 2004 elections. Although I think tomorrow this move down will be erased. I will put my money on this bet anyway.
+1 Reply
Singapore22 Singapore22
3 months ago
That's not a reply to this self-loving idiot. My mistake, it was meant for everyone.
+1 Reply
saint_athur
3 months ago
Arpi, previous comment few weeks ago im waiting at 1257. Its seems real.
Reply
toothless
3 months ago
Unnerving drop, but looks like we just tagged the 200 MA and bouncing up off of it. Carry on.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO toothless
3 months ago
Exactly. Professional thoughts.
And we did it on low volume.
+5 Reply
AhmedKhattab chartwatchers
3 months ago
Does gold will drop down if Clinton wins ?
Reply
BjornPfaff AhmedKhattab
3 months ago
Yes it will be viotile keep in mind that 1250 1260 is on the map !
Reply
vikingaskepp BjornPfaff
3 months ago
How so? Why do you think it's going down to 1250? Is that a tip you get from somewhere? Your own analysis? Would you please elaborate on that? I'm thinking is this an excellent buying opportunity coming up?/kh
Reply
BjornPfaff vikingaskepp
3 months ago
with all do respect , you all think im here to put you on a different path but thats not true Im here to save all your asses. As i lost long time ago 15k because of Arpi his analyses but learned my lessons meanwile . Do what you all want to do but dont put longs in your heads ! yes a Tip.
+1 Reply
vikingaskepp BjornPfaff
3 months ago
OK. Well personally I'm beyond saving, because I made a huge mistake already years ago, before following. I'm here to learn, and hopefully repair that mistake. I don't expect to do that in a couple of weeks, but maybe in a couple of years. So far this has been a great place to learn the thinking, and I love the way people are discussing different theories, pointing out different things in their charts. And if I never have any successes in trading/investing or what you will, at least I have had a bit of fun and had a few insights in thinking different from mine. Hm, I had a feeling maybe it was a tip. Let's see then....tonight and beyond will be exciting whichever. / Karin
+1 Reply
BabasNumbaOne
3 months ago
[XAUUSD][GOLD] Retracement started! time to make money there
Reply
USSRandolph
3 months ago
People, calm down. Arpi included. The price of gold near term depends on the outcome of US elections... Most agree on that. However most of you also are betting on gold surging in price. Very unlikely. FBI essentially cleared Clinton of any wrongdoing Sunday afternoon. You saw what that did to gold and US stocks... Stocks were through the roof! Gold was opposite. You are all fighting reality. Trump, thankfully, has little chance of being elected. He is behind now, 46 percent to 42 percent. He has never been ahead in his campaign, Clinton has never been behind, even in her darkest days. The FBI hurt her badly last week during their announcement to reopen the investigation re her email problems. Still, never behind. Sunday, FBI cleared her of any wrongdoing after examining 650,000 more emails. She began pulling further ahead again. Today, the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation Project stated she, Clinton, has about a 90 percent... Yes, about 90 percent... Chance of winning the election. Trump, obviously has about a 10 percent chance of winning. He has a very narrow path, A very slight chance of winning. But it can be done. You must remember, in the US, Presidential elections are not won or lost by popular vote but by electoral votes. I won't go into how that works here, but Clinton already has nearly all of the electoral votes needed to win the election. She has a much wider and easier path to getting all the electoral votes she needs to win. I am writing this because it seems like many, if not all of you are chasing this thing blindly and are convinced of winning, a "can't lose" mentality, which is a sure way to lose. Arpi included. Arpi, you are even quoting another goldbug website which says how much of a sure thing it is to win big with gold. I ask you all to calm down, quit fighting amongst yourselves and br logical and invest rationally. I am including the link to the Reuters/Ipsos article for you to read for yourselves. And remember, a Clinton win is good for stocks and the dollar. A Trump win is good for gold and bad for stocks and the dollar. Personalities aside, I would much rather have a strong stock market and dollar than a high price in gold. Here is the Reuters/ Ipsos link:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKBN1322J1
+3 Reply
Notyour USSRandolph
3 months ago
"Given the alternatives, I would vote for Mr. Trump because he may only destroy the U.S. economy, but Hillary Clinton will destroy the whole world." Marc Faber
+3 Reply
USSRandolph Notyour
3 months ago
This was not meant to be a political commentary but an encouragement to think logically and wisely about how and where to invest your money, to not do so blindly with the hope of huge profits based on political bias. Rather, it was an example of current probabilities based on scientific data sampling.
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Notyour USSRandolph
3 months ago
Sure. Appreciated
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Staxs USSRandolph
3 months ago
I think the big issue when all votes are added up is how big is the President's mandate?

If Hilary gets in, she needs a large one (no not a cigar/aka not a B(ill)C Wienner)) , (majority) to convince the public, USA, International press/ "Spin Doctor's" that she is the "Daddy",,, but don't see this happening. She will prob get elected but be very weak in the Senate.

Trump get's in, well happy days I think, Gold keeps running, Oil falls but not too far, we are on a correction anyway. SPX, DXY, maybe global markets get dumped and abused for a bit, then morality kicks in and things settle for Xmas.....
+1 Reply
-Andrew- PRO USSRandolph
3 months ago
Thanks for sharing USSRandolph - I share the same view
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USSRandolph -Andrew-
3 months ago
Welcome.
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ricardo.lavadinho
3 months ago
Another gap also opened up in gold, which is sure to get closed soon. From a short term bearish situation to a potentially very bullish scenario, in just days, keeps the traders on their toes
Reply
val_trader
3 months ago
Please Arpi write in horzontal way !
+3 Reply
chartwatchers PRO val_trader
3 months ago
I cant update normally this post...
I don't know why
Reply
bhowe
3 months ago
Arpi what are your thoughts on GOLD pulling back here? $1275 barely holding
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webmiztriz PRO bhowe
3 months ago
#HB
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saint_athur
3 months ago
im waiting for 1245. protect my 1250
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff saint_athur
3 months ago
1245 will not come before the cap has been filled
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Nightstar BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Try auto-correct. It works wonders :)
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Nightstar
3 months ago
Night, I wrote you a msg. Did you get it?
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Nightstar chartwatchers
3 months ago
Yes I did a couple of hours ago. thank you very much :) I didn't want to clog up your inbox. We're all sitting on the edge of our seat on this one, Lol
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webmiztriz PRO Nightstar
3 months ago
U guys & ur secret bromance......hahahah.
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Nightstar webmiztriz
3 months ago
We were 'secretly' talkin about ya haha
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webmiztriz PRO Nightstar
3 months ago
Mmhmmm.........
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chartwatchers PRO BjornPfaff
3 months ago
Wrong. We filled the gap.
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bertcoin PRO
3 months ago
GOLD MAY BE CALLING FOR TRUMP!
+1 Reply
shinsky
3 months ago
HEY BJORN... HOW'S 1250 COMING ALONG? LOLOL

HOPE YOU GET SQUEEZED OUT
+3 Reply
babak_eng shinsky
3 months ago
hahahahahaha I Love this
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BjornPfaff shinsky
3 months ago
look to my comments before im long my friend :-)))) some of you got Stopped out im sure HAHAHA
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-Andrew- PRO
3 months ago
Boom!!! Long Gold now in Green!!!
+2 Reply
kidbroge
3 months ago
The early returns are for Trump but I still think the fix is in and the bitch will win. Waiting this one out. I trust nothing. Be careful. Stay nimble.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO kidbroge
3 months ago
Americans said : enough is enough.
The puppet show is over.
+3 Reply
JohnKitcher chartwatchers
3 months ago
Hoped this would happen. Trump win is great for gold for a few days but mid- to long term a Trump win is more negative (less chance of war; reducing taxes). So when do we exit our position? Thanks Arpi
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ironmask JohnKitcher
3 months ago
i made mistake of selling gold today but i do have inverse S&P so i should make really great profit tomorrow...
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kidbroge chartwatchers
3 months ago
@chartwatchers, really glad I was wrong. Have been reading to many consipiracy theories.
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Tj PRO
3 months ago
Arpi, first of all thanks for your work and sharing it.

Something is wronmg with this idea - your updates text are vertical. Maybe it needs to be reported to tradingview to get fixed. Thank you.
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chartwatchers PRO Tj
3 months ago
Yea I will try it. I dont know what happened...
+1 Reply
nikkki chartwatchers
3 months ago
where should we put the 1st TP for gold
Reply
mabaert PRO nikkki
3 months ago
Sharing this question; Awesome longposition here. in case a trump win, it would seem logic to keep it open for european markets reaction to this right?
Reply
Nightstar
3 months ago
Where's Bjorn?? I wanna hold his hand.
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babak_eng Nightstar
3 months ago
hahahahaha Bjorn is the next big trader hahahahahaha I Love this guy what a clown
Reply
bracken babak_eng
3 months ago
Björn is a common name in the Scandinavian contries and it means bear. I guess our dutch bear Bjorn has got in hibernation, winter and all comming (To be in a dormant or torpid state during a cold period, especially during the winter)
Reply
BjornPfaff babak_eng
3 months ago
Youve got to love me , as i predicted golds move , instead of Arpi who was long from 1300 :-))) you all are so Hila
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BjornPfaff Nightstar
3 months ago
Hold my hand ? Why ? i was long from 1269.93 my friend ! On the bottom ! look to my previous posts , no one does fool me my friend , no one ;-)
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2use BjornPfaff
3 months ago
@BjornPfaff, I could not find any chart on your profile? Was about to follow - did you post anywhere else?
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kidbroge BjornPfaff
3 months ago
@BjornPfaff, your snark is awesome, it's turning into a comedy routine. Very entertaining.
Reply
BjornPfaff kidbroge
3 months ago
@kidbroge, As long as you guys believe Arpi, it will be very entertaining for me to see people like you get burned :))) But hey, what do you expect ;-)
Reply
kidbroge BjornPfaff
3 months ago
@BjornPfaff, I was actually paying you a compliment. Your writing style, it has an edge. I like it. I don't follow blindly. I have my system. My daily signal just turned up at 1307, sl 1245. Not in though, waiting for the dust to settle. When you post a prediction, if you were to include price at that moment it's proof and you could refer back to it. Just a tip. Adios.
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bertcoin PRO
3 months ago
It's over. The markets and gold have called it. I told my children, it's either a Trump landslide, or it's Clinton, (as a close vote would have been stolen by Clinton). The markets have spoken. US Futures DOWN 4 to 5%. Just like Brexit. Be prepared to BUY US Markets (or go bullish on options). The sun will still come up Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, you'll be glad you bought Wednesday!

Next up - French and German elections with side shows in Italy and other EU exits.
Reply
Lord_Snow PRO
2 months ago
@gandonian11 was almost there for this was
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