ICmarkets

What we're looking at on Gold right now...

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
470 10 6
Weekly view: Although Gold             still remains below the swap resistance barrier at 1157.4, the rebound from this area has, at least for us, been relatively disappointing so far. This market lost around 700 pips last week at the close 1138.3, which, in the overall scheme of things means very little to us considering the size of the buying tail that printed from the low 1104.4.

Should 1157.4 give way this week, it’s likely this market will head in the direction of supply taken from 1205.6-1181.2. This area, in our book, is a perfect zone to look for shorts. It not only converges with a bearish Harmonic AB=CD pattern (1199.4), but also with the underside of a long-term trendline extended from the high 1488.0.

Weekly levels to watch this week fall in at: 1157.4/1205.6-1181.2.

Daily view: From the pits of the daily timeframe , it’s clear to see, at least technically, why Gold             printed the weekly pin tail last week. This market had been in a decline all week, it was only once price connected with demand at 1098.6-1108.6, no doubt during the NFP release, did we see price aggressively rally on Friday, closing the week out at Quasimodo resistance drawn from 1138.3. This level, coupled with the stacked supply seen above (1156.6-1145.5/ 1169.8-1154.7), will likely make it hard for Gold             to appreciate this week, no matter what we’re currently seeing on the weekly scale. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe has to offer…

Daily levels to watch this week fall in at: 1098.6-1108.6/1138.3/1156.6-1145.5/ 1169.8-1154.7.

4hr view: At this viewpoint, we can see that Gold             rapidly gained altitude shortly after NFP’s disappointing release, which saw little sign of slowing down until connecting with a small swap resistance area given at 1140.6-1141.9. The reason for initially marking this area on Friday simply came down to it converging with a daily Quasimodo resistance level drawn from 1138.3.

Going forward, it was a soft start this morning for the yellow metal as prices opened at Friday’s close, 1138.3. Due to price now effectively trading mid-range between the aforementioned swap resistance area , and a slightly obscure ignored Quasimodo level at 1134.1, where do we see this market heading? Well, for today, we have our eye on the two above said levels for confirmed trades. In addition to this, we also like the fresh supply area just above it at 1148.5-1145.5 since it ties in nicely with the 78.6% Fib resistance and also sits just within daily supply at 1156.6-1145.5. As for the week ahead, we do not see this market appreciating much, if at all as explained in the higher timeframe sections above.

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: 1134.1 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).
• Sells: 1140.6-1141.9 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area) 1148.5-1145.5 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
poka.star91
a year ago
Hi , your long term trendline ... I can't seem to duplicate it . I have it much lower near current levels .
So now I am confused . I don't which one is right . I use Metatrader for charting .
Reply
poka.star91
a year ago
Well since you are not responding , I am totally discounting your trendline . I just don't see how you arrived at that .
Reply
ICmarkets PRO poka.star91
a year ago
Hi,

your post was a day ago, please be a little patient. We'll reply in a few hours. However, feel free to discount the trendline.
Reply
poka.star91 ICmarkets
a year ago
OK , I await your reply then before making judgement . Thank you .
Reply
poka.star91 ICmarkets
a year ago
Never mind , my mistake . I see your line now . I was looking at an even longer term line . It is right here around 1155 - 1165 .
But I am not familiar with Swap resistance . How strong resistance should that be ?
Reply
poka.star91 ICmarkets
a year ago
P.S. I am looking for an excuse to go short here but I am puzzled by the long blue candlestick after the NFP .
Kind of looks like it might break higher yet .
Reply
ICmarkets PRO poka.star91
a year ago
Ok, good that you can see the trendline markings. Sometime it takes us a little time to respond and considering it is a weekly level in discussion there was not really any rush:) Right now, we believe Gold can go either way, in an hour or two we'll post up a chart.

IC markets
Reply
poka.star91 ICmarkets
a year ago
Yes , but my weekly trendline is right here and breakout might happen any moment
and I don't know if I should buy the breakout or what because Gold has been making false breakouts lately .
Looking for any clues I can get .
Reply
ICmarkets PRO poka.star91
a year ago
You will have to post what you're looking at.

Unfortunately we're not breakout traders.
Reply
poka.star91 ICmarkets
a year ago
I don't know yet how to attach a chart but the line connect the tops of the
following weeks :
2012 09 30
2015 01 18
2015 05 17

The maximum upside I have based on this line is 1160 .
Reply
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