XAUUSD: Selling Pressure Remains Unsettled

On the H4 timeframe, XAUUSD continues to show a clear picture: sellers haven't left the market. The price continues to move within a descending channel, with upward rallies lacking significant breakouts and quickly being halted at the upper resistance zone.

Notably, the 4,500-4,520 range is still acting as a short-term "price ceiling." Each time gold approaches this area, selling pressure reappears, indicating that buying pressure isn't strong enough to reverse the trend. The fact that the price remains below the Ichimoku cloud further reinforces the view that the current rallies are primarily technical, not yet a confirmed bullish signal.

Regarding the market context, the focus remains on US labor data. If the NFP data isn't too weak, the USD and bond yields could continue to be supported. This is a negative factor for gold, as XAUUSD typically struggles to maintain a sustainable upward trend in a high-interest rate environment.

Currently, the 4,420 – 4,400 range is the nearest support level to watch. If the price breaks below this area with a clear H4 candle, selling pressure could extend to 4,360. Conversely, if gold holds the support and bounces back, the 4,500 – 4,520 range will remain the test of the true strength of the buyers.

Trading Strategy Suggestion
Preferred Scenario: Wait for the price to retrace to the 4,480 – 4,500 range. If a rejection candle appears, with a long upper wick or a weakening pattern, consider selling in line with the trend.
Stop Loss: Above 4,520.
Take Profit: Near target 4,400, far target 4,360.

If the H4 candle closes clearly above 4,520, do not continue to hold a very bearish view, as the structure may then shift to a deeper recovery phase.