News background and trading ideas for 16/10/2018
Monday, in general, passed in line with our forecasts and expectations: the pound grew, gold either. The dollar declined, in particular, under the pressure of rather weak statistics on retail sales in the US (+ 0.1% m / m, with the forecast of + 0.6% m / m).
Meanwhile, the world is exceptionally turbulent. As a result, China's stock market fell to its lowest level since 2014. The main focus of tension: the situation with Saudi Arabia and the United States, the US sanctions against Iran, and of course Brexit. It is worth noting that the panic pressure subsided somewhat although the VIX Index (also known as the Fear Index decreased by almost 1.5%).
Nevertheless, we are keeping to recommend purchases of assets-haven. On the commodity market - this is gold, on a Forex market - Japanese yen.
The latter part of the week will be entirely dictated by news from Brussels on the results of negotiations between the EU and the UK. The parties continue to escalate, but as we have noted more than once, this is part of the game. They will wait till the last, so we remind of our basic trading idea, which we have been voicing for more than a month, - the talks will be successfully concluded, and therefore the British pound must be bought. Today will be important for the pound and a portion of the macroeconomic statistics on the UK labor market. But we note that these data can only lead to a short-term volatility surge and the maximum that is suitable - to choose the best point to enter long positions.
Further our strategic idea - the sale of oil has recently been under pressure due to sharp increase tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia. It had got to the point naked threats from both sides, so a rise in oil prices in the short term is entirely possible. But globally, oil is still worth selling. Of the latest news in favor of this, it is worth noting a sharp increase in US oil reserves, active drilling rigs and a new record in US oil production - 11.2 million barrels per day. Besides, world oil production exceeded 100 million barrels per day - this is nothing less than a new absolute record of supply in the market. So, albeit concerning the development of the situation around Saudi Arabia, but we are looking for points for sales of oil.
Do not forget selling the Russian ruble either.
Meanwhile, the world is exceptionally turbulent. As a result, China's stock market fell to its lowest level since 2014. The main focus of tension: the situation with Saudi Arabia and the United States, the US sanctions against Iran, and of course Brexit. It is worth noting that the panic pressure subsided somewhat although the VIX Index (also known as the Fear Index decreased by almost 1.5%).
Nevertheless, we are keeping to recommend purchases of assets-haven. On the commodity market - this is gold, on a Forex market - Japanese yen.
The latter part of the week will be entirely dictated by news from Brussels on the results of negotiations between the EU and the UK. The parties continue to escalate, but as we have noted more than once, this is part of the game. They will wait till the last, so we remind of our basic trading idea, which we have been voicing for more than a month, - the talks will be successfully concluded, and therefore the British pound must be bought. Today will be important for the pound and a portion of the macroeconomic statistics on the UK labor market. But we note that these data can only lead to a short-term volatility surge and the maximum that is suitable - to choose the best point to enter long positions.
Further our strategic idea - the sale of oil has recently been under pressure due to sharp increase tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia. It had got to the point naked threats from both sides, so a rise in oil prices in the short term is entirely possible. But globally, oil is still worth selling. Of the latest news in favor of this, it is worth noting a sharp increase in US oil reserves, active drilling rigs and a new record in US oil production - 11.2 million barrels per day. Besides, world oil production exceeded 100 million barrels per day - this is nothing less than a new absolute record of supply in the market. So, albeit concerning the development of the situation around Saudi Arabia, but we are looking for points for sales of oil.
Do not forget selling the Russian ruble either.
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Больше информации на нашем ютьюб-канале
www.youtube.com/channel/UCYEOurJfasXWyYnrriGwsqQ
