justatrader

Gold - At a critical juncture?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
488 4 7
Gold             rallied and then stalled right near a long term trend line (shows one of the beautiful aspects of technical analysis ). Price is currently retracing, which brings to question if the rally was just a correction or start of a bull run.

On the chart, we see that price broke through the 150MA, also the 20EMA crossed over (although it doesn't infer anything). What should be noted is the next price target. I suspect, price will touch down to the up sloping trend line (it also come in close with the moving averages too) before bouncing. This would be indicative of a Gold             rally.

The same up sloping trend line is also plotted on Stochs. I've pointed a support/resistance level there. So stochs should give the first indication of price moves.

MACD can be used for entry (0-line cross over). Take both stochs and MACDH into account in relation to the 150MA and you'll get a fair idea of the bias.

Note that the previous high of 1362.11 was not taken out. So there is a hint of bearishness to Gold             at the moment.
First I bet for pullback to 1280-1300, then later it will likely trade higher to the 1360-1400 levels. Now it is better to take some profit on longs. However instead of thinking of shorts, I would rather wait fir the pullback, then look for buy signals in line with the major trend. I don't say someone can not make on a short term bearish bet from here, but that is not a really good risk reward trade. If you are looking for some possible trend breaks in commodity space, watch the WTI.
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JesusDiaz Kumowizard
I can see a pull back to prepare for a move higher also.
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At 1280 area you have nice support as well to take long position with low risk
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Yes, assuming price continues to move lower, the MA should likely adjust accordingly. The best scenario would be MA and up sloping TL confluence with confirmation from Stochs + MACDH. (Wishful thinking)
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