I am strapped for time, but will try my best to show how organic price/volume waves fits best with Elliot Waves for forecasting.
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EXAMPLE, GLD MARCH/APRIL 2020:
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So in March of 2020, we have a double top. The waves are color coded: BLACK < BLUE < RED < DARK GREY < PURPLE < ORANGE, BLACK is shorterst time frame and ORANGE IS LONGEST. For this setting, each wave is 1/3 the wave bigger than it, and 3X the wave smaller than it. SO: BLUE*3=RED, RED*3=DARK GREY.
Look at price above from January to March, DARK GREY wave leads PURPLE wave (so prices are rallying).
BUT BELOW IN VOLUME DARK GREY IS BEHIND!! After the first top in February, DARK GREY volume is declining but still positive. HOWEVER, RED IS IN DEEP NEGATIVE TERRITORY WHILE PRICE MAKES THE SECOND TOP.
This is what I mean by exhaustion as it relates to each wave.
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ANALYSIS:
Look at chart at top. Notice that red is not in negative territory. BUT IT IS MUCH MORE BEARISH HERE!! BUT WHY??
BECAUSE THE VOLUME WAVES ARE IN REVERSED ORDER!!
Meaning the momentum is STRONGLY BEARISH. Compared vs RED 2 short term top on January 29th, PURPLE VOLUME IS NOW UNDER ORANGE VOLUME! Plus, the space between BLACK AND PURPLE VOLUME IS TOO WIDE FOR RED WAVE TO REVERSE IT.
NEXT VOLATILITY CYCLE FOR RED WAVE DOWN: price will be ANNIHILATED.
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WED FEB 24 11:33 AM ET.
ENTRY SHORT 1798.16. STOP LOSS 1822. TARGET 1680.
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MON MARCH 8 10:45 AM ET. TARGET REACHED. TRADE CLOSED.
I just got this new one for fun, but has a potential. What if we are into a 3?
fra978
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I told you ;) hi bro!
Binary_Forecasting_Service
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@fra978, I learn from the best. ;-) Hope you killed it today my man.
fra978
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@MQP, Today bro? i'm in swing from months :)
salvanost
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agree with u
Binary_Forecasting_Service
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@salvanost, Agree. Let's see what happen in March. am ambivalent about a retrace under 1625. This is because it forces gold into the same trend situation in March only it's 3X as long (in terms of time) and it requires a violent retrace and even MORE violent bounce in order to maintain a bull thesis. Under 1625 for 3-5 weeks and it implies bull is dead (based on historical trend in many different asset types). A great example is S&P 500 in 2007/2008 situation.