goldenBear88

Buying strongly limited / #1,727.80 is next

Short
FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold's general commentary: After careful observation of market closing and early E.U. session and Fundamentals beating their forecasts, Price-action kept rising on U.S. session opening Bell, almost activating my #1,727.80 deep Selling order. This Technical setup most likely gives me a hint that Gold is on the verge of new Bearish cycle as my fair estimations are pointing that it will be worse than every Long-term decline in the past #100 Years. Gold , with all Bearish signs should be gradually losing with every Daily candle. #2021.is projected to be Bull Year for Bond Yields, and DX should reverse and engage a Buy-off - all those events will add Selling pressure on Gold . DX for now lost correlation with Gold on all levels as I expect July to be again Month of traditional Gold - DX correlation. #1,766.80 is crucial Support Hourly 4 basis as chances are really slim for Resistance of #1,800.80 to be tested again (only #12.78%). The Price will most likely re-enter the High Volatility belt (#22 March - #11 April and #19 - #27 June). On the Short-term, I may have correction of current losses towards #1,779.80 (already happening) on a first Hourly 4 Bullish candle this week, I haven’t got a reason to revise my mid-term overview. Gold shows no apparent signs (besides all Bearish pointers) of stopping its Bearish direction. If you have followed my signals and read it with understanding you can see that I am heavily on the Selling side (which should be by all Technical indicators), and my view has not changed since the last few sessions.


Fundamental analysis: Gold will continue to fall with every Weekly candle. Weekly chart is on a strong Support levels and if those got invalidated, I will be looking to complete and follow full oscillation towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier. It should be no surprise that Gold is Trading around its #1,750’s pivot ahead of the upcoming Fundamental events. Gold is still priced just above the Daily chart Support zone and the upside potential seems strongly limited and less possible. In next few sessions I expect Full Bearish domination. Regarding today’s session, I cannot rule out #8 Hour correction towards #1,780's Resistance zone , as Yields are near Higher Low configuration, but all in all, Buying is strongly limited both on Short and Long-term. Today’s market sentiment offers me no patterns to Trade by.


Technical analysis: As I announced possible Buying correction on Gold , Price-action has recovered half of the opening losses on the U.S. session opening as Yields are taking big Daily candle hit. However the rise is not proportional as global Stock markets and futures are still on High levels. This leads me to believe that on the Short-term, there is a stronger connection of Gold to Bond Yields, rather than DX , so I will keep an eye for pressure zones on Bond Yields. Technically the Daily chart is still a Channel Down on it’s Lower Low, but the Support has to break as last time it provided rejection twice. I am expecting strong move to take place throughout Friday’s session or late U.S. session today (ahead of NFP). Despite the Bullish Fundamental outcome on announcements last week, Gold continues to Trade near the #3-Month Low’s. This indicates that last week's aggressive Buy-off on Bond Yields was largely a pre-pricing of those disastrous NFP numbers. What's obvious, as the current week comes to a close, is that the consolidation since yesterday's session is just above the Daily Support Zone (#1,751.80) which lifts the probabilities for an aggressive Selling sequence ahead, especially as Weekly remains marginally Bearish . Interestingly, the Weekly candle is flat almost on zero percent. I remain fully Bearish on the Short and Long-term, my Technical background shows some Bullish signs (Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern) but those will be invalidated once the Support configuration is broken and Selling bias formed on Hourly 4 chart. Price-action also manages to keep the High levels despite the rise on DX and very sharp uptrend on Usd-Jpy . Especially the fact that Usd-Jpy broke it’s Daily chart Resistance, makes Gold very Bearish on the Short-term, with it's own Daily chart having regained complete Bullish status on the Long-term for the first time since February #28. On the Short-term though, the Price-action is testing the inner Resistance zone and may require to have small pullback in order to accumulate more Selling pressure to convincingly break #1,751.80 this time. As soon as the new market dynamics, post Fed, find their prior balance, fair Technical Price of Gold would be near #1,727.80 Targets remain #1,751.89 and #1,727.80 in continuation, if #1,766.80 is broken.


Since I had many inquiries regarding Basel #3 outcome, my estimation is that the outcome will have less or no impact on current configuration on Gold , and is weak pointer of Gold's direction, best to be ignored.


My position: Since I am on #14 Profits run and #2 Stop-loss hits regarding May - June fractal , I won't rush onto new opportunity which can endanger my capital. Since Buying is surely out of question, I will wait for decent opportunity to Sell Gold . That opportunity awaits / exists near #1,766.80 - #1,759.80 belt, of course with Bond Yields confirmation (which should be above Lower High, for me to take action). I suggest Traders with small margins to keep away from the markets for #2 sessions.
My Telegram channel: https://t.me/goldenBear88

Professional market analyst and Financial consultant with over #8 Years experience. I specialize Gold market using specific proven mathematical models. I provide market insights and Professional guidance.

Comments

Great analysis once again. I am still holding my sell at 1782 from 28.06. For me short/med term is bearish, just a lil worried about today and tomorrow NFP and what impact this might have. Took some partials on my sell, still have 50% open and moved stop to BE. Not sure whether I should hold or close before jobs data released?
+3 Reply
goldenBear88 decentGuest86341
@decentGuest86341, Thank you for kind words! Even though that it is not my usual practice to advise without purchasing my services firstly (besides my free Daily commentary here): I’d move my Stop-loss on BE, in case that NFP surprises. If debacle happens again (which was the case last time), it is much easier to engage Selling order and ride the Selling sequence with fresh position, than to risk with current position if Price-action goes upwards, and invalidates your order.
+4 Reply
decentGuest86341 goldenBear88
@goldenBear88, Thanks bear! I have moved stop to BE yesterday already, just gonna ride it out. I appreciate the reply massively, knowing you don't usually do it. Massive respect man.
+1 Reply
goldenBear88 decentGuest86341
@decentGuest86341, You follow my content, always on my comment section with gratitude and words of praise / that’s the reason I replied. I highly appreciate Traders who find quality in my commentary. Wish you luck with your position!
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lukulus decentGuest86341
@decentGuest86341, And you are stopped:) in details all this golden tactics are the same as usual... 50/50 bets, stoplosses, sometimes win:) and 90% of you loose money:)
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@lukulus, I closed after 73 wasnt broken despite good fundamentals(jobless claims)
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yaoyutong2020 goldenBear88
@goldenBear88, Sorry to ask, what is BE? Where do I need to understand the meaning and usage of this abbreviation?
+1 Reply
TUCM yaoyutong2020
@yaoyutong2020, break even
+1 Reply
LbKr decentGuest86341
@decentGuest86341 pls don’t let your greediness make you loose a good trade. You SOLD @ 82 & it got to 52, that’s 30points profit ...I’d advise you do the needful before it’s too late. As for me , I don’t like BE, I’d rather close my trade in some profits away 😆... BUT if your lot on the trade is very small, you can ride it to even 1200 😂 if you want to 👋
+1 Reply
@LbKr, I closed 50% at 54. I was expecting 48 and had that as my tp2. Still have 6lots on my sell at 82,so I am willing to ride it out with no additional risk to my capital.Some might see it as greed, but I believe in my strategy and am sticking to it.
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