Scenario after the speech of the FED chairman on December 2

5 days ago

1️⃣ Trendline
Ascending trendline (lower black line)

This is the main dynamic support of the current trend.

Price is retesting the trendline after a strong bounce → holding above it keeps the bullish structure intact.

Descending trendline (upper black line)

A strong dynamic resistance from the higher timeframe, aligning with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.

Price reacted and weakened when touching it → indicating selling pressure emerging.

2️⃣ Key Support & Resistance Zones
Resistance

4,300 – 4,315: Confluence of
✔ 3.618 Fibonacci extension
✔ Descending trendline
✔ Previous supply zone
→ This is the strongest reversal area.

Upside target if broken:
→ 4,375 – 4,380 (Fibo 4.236 + higher-timeframe supply zone).

Support

4,192 – 4,200:
✔ Demand zone
✔ Confluence with EMA + retest of ascending trendline
→ This is the short-term support.

4,125 – 4,130:
✔ Confluence with major ascending trendline
✔ 1.618 Fibonacci extension
→ This is the strong support – target if breakdown occurs.

3️⃣ Fibonacci Structure

The previous bullish wave completed a classic Fib extension pattern:
✔ 1.618 → 4,127
✔ 2.618 → 4,219
✔ 3.618 → 4,310
→ This reflects a fully extended wave, increasing the probability of a correction.

4️⃣ Price Scenarios
Scenario 1 (primary – correction expected)

Price rejects strongly at 4,300 →
🔻 Drops to 4,192 → if broken → moves toward 4,125 (major bounce zone).

Scenario 2 (bullish breakout)

If an H4 candle closes above 4,310, the move may extend toward 4,375 – 4,380.

Trade Ideas
BUY GOLD : 4193 – 4191

Stoploss: 4183
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips

SELL GOLD : 4300 – 4303

Stoploss: 4313
Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips

5 days ago

Note

Despite a slight correction in gold prices, the downside was limited as the precious metal remained broadly supported by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming monetary policy meeting next week.

With no major US economic data due for release on Tuesday, gold prices are likely to remain at intraday lows, leaving the precious metal largely at the mercy of a stronger US dollar and a change in the overall risk environment.