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@freddie1996 nice! thanks for sending this through, I can see the logic behind structure. Nice alignment with the Fresh demand zone which takes into account the higher timeframe zone into account.
freddie1996
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@LupaCapital, I do however have a case to suggest that Gold will not reach this demand zone. I will share a screenshot below of VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF and my analysis here suggests that it has bottomed.
Essentially the best way to think of VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF is to see it as a Gold price tracker but more volatile. So the correlation hardly ever breaks, so it is safe to assume if Gold goes up, VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF will also go up, but just by a larger degree, the cases of divergence are very rare.
The reasoning behind seeing this ETF as having bottomed already is because it has tapped into a fresh demand zone while also completing a pattern.
I'd be interested to see what you think about this?
LupaCapital
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@freddie1996 solid analysis and I can see the clear demand formation and subsequent higher low formed in line with structure. weekly also forms a solid basis. I did mention it has to breakthrough the weekly PCP zone first which will align with your Fresh pivot demand. overall solid takes, now we wait confirms
freddie1996
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@LupaCapital, I don't use some of the terminology you mentioned there. e.g. PCP zone and Fresh 'pivot' demand. Could you explain what you mean?
LupaCapital
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@freddie1996 so a PCP is a potential continuation zone based on the zone breaking and a pivot demand refers to a Pivot point in the structure, assuming an arrival point for a demand formation.
freddie1996
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@LupaCapital, thanks, I'm also curious why you are anticipating that small move up first to where you marked 1971.23 with the orange ray? I've been short since 1943 because I was and I still am anticipating a potential false breakout of your downwards purple trendline, do you still see that move up happening first before the larger drop or have you abandoned that idea?
I'm curious why you believed it would happen in the first place as well, you mention it being a fresh supply level but why besides that is there reason for price to even reach there before the move lower down to FL Demand WK (net imbalance monthly nest)? Also from observing the market fresh supply/demand levels don't have to be reached at all, imbalances can be left behind indefinitely.
LupaCapital
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@freddie1996 ofcourse it can, all comes down to confirmations right, if this current zone breaks - happily add to the shorts, however the market has an opportunity to test the supply again before heading back down. Again all comes with time - in my experience I sit and let my levels trade and trade as when required. These levels may never tap into the supply, however what I have seen within the structure looking left, it has a probability
Here is my analysis.