GOLD - Why is this the bottom?

1. Timing.
If this is the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle then we are on day
54. If we are still in the first it's day 71... The cycle will not let the price to drop too much from here maximum 1-2 day.

2. Bollinger bands.
Price dropped so much that it closed out of the Bollinger bands:

We can't stay out of the BB... So price will need to bounce and get back between the bands.

3. Moving averages.
In this idea I highlighted that at some point one of the moving averages will stop the falling:

I also noted the drop will stop between the 200 and the 100 SMA (1840-1800$) it stopped at 1802 and almost tagged the 100 SMA.

4. Fibonacci:
Today we almost tagged the 50% retracement at 1800$.

38,2% and 50% is a common retracement at the DCL...

5. Indicators:
RSI5 tagged the oversold level and bouncing, Slow Stochastic also oversold.

At this part of the intermediate cycle it's too early to have an oversold zigzag. From the oversold territory price bounces hard when the DCL printed.

I see a possibility that tomorrow we backtest or marginally break 1802 and tag 1800$. Any breakdown of 1802 will create a bear trap . If that happens use the opportunity to open a long position.

Posted 06.16.2021. 19:00 (EST)

Comment:

A lower low to 1800 would be great.

Comment:

Gold just broke above the 100 MA .
Swing will come by the close:

Comment:

Swing above 1797$

Comment:

Yesterday we tested and today price broke through the 200SMA.

Comment:

The intermediate trend is getting old , so I’m closing this trade after today’s reversal candle:

Trade closed manually

Comment:

Comment:

We spent one and a half year in a triangle consolidation.