Introduction - After failing to follow through with the same setup in DRAFT 3 for last Thursday's PPI release, the GOLD gods surprised with a last second completion of DRAFT 2's move to 2220. This means 2300 is the target for next Tuesday, 3/26. However, 2345 is going to have to wait a bit longer.
Details - See previous drafts for background and recent notes in DRAFT 2 for where we are now. Will add more as we go.
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03/20, 11:30 PM ET, NOTES: 1) again on my view of 2345 ceiling:
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2) in chart at top, we are going to challenge that box at 2305-2345 3 TIMES 3) BEFORE APRIL 2ND 4) price will get rejected all three times 5) and on the third time REJECTED W/ 100 PT RETRACE AHEAD OF 04/05's March NFP release
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6) which will send price to 2340s again for a fourth rejection 7) this is the overwhelming favorite right now 8) while that 100 pt retrace may only be 80 9) 4 REJECTIONS completed by mid-April is what all extrapolations say 10) in theory, after 5-6 rejections, we will be due for 150 pt correction 11) all the way back down to where we are now 2200 12 the faster we get through all that, quicker we can aim for what looks like 2600+ now 13) as the ceiling after 2345 14) while it's true that odds now favor 2345 to hold to mid-June 15) that is not totally "set in stone" there 16) we will cross that bridge if and when
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17) but think about it this way... 18) if you have 4 rejections by 4/12, and you need 6 rejections... 19) next FOMC is 05/01 20) this is implying that 05/01 FOMC, 6 weeks from now 21) is not far out enough for 6 rejections, move to 2200, and back up to break 2345 22) that seems like too much price action for that window 23) so it makes more sense that at the break of 2345 ceiling 24) woulld come after 6/12 FOMC
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3/21, 12:20 AM ET.. it's looking like 2360.. why? 1) weird 2) I thought I measured that thing 10 times already
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3) that means this chart at top expires Sunday 3/31 4) we may have to get to 2360 before the 100 pt check down
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5) yeah, 2360 ahead of Wednesday 04/03 ADP release 6) so chart at top will hold through 04/01
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6:20 AM ET, 2011.xx, looks like it's skipping the check down a) there's still the matter of 8:30 AM ET event time b) in which case the check from here looks like 2203-ish
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c) and the day ceiling looks like 2255-2265
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d) no, the day ceiling at 1 PM ET is 2274 e) let's see if it gets hit
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6:49 AM ET, 2207.XX and refusing to check down and here's what that means:
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a) in chart above, the light hi-light is a super-refined version of chart at top b) it was completed in the last few hours c) price is saying that it wants the darker blue for today and tomorrow d) meaning there should be 2 SPIKES TODAY e) one into 2238-ish, the second in the afternoon into 2270+ f) why?, bc it's setting up for it, obviously won't start until 8:30 AM ET event time g) If the floor holds at 2202+ before NY OPENs, it's moving for 2270 today h) and what that means is, it makes the overnight check down floor equal to .. I) LAST NIGHT'S HIGH at 2222
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j) this will leave this rally incomplete, and in order to fill out... k) price has to move to 2315 and 2360 by those dates above l) ahead of NFP's check down to 2250
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7:29 AM THIS NEEDS TO MOVE SOON. 1. Or it will lose the setup
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2: be careful
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8:56 AM, 2207.XX, this thing doesn't want to move fast enough to hold the setup a) which means it's running out of time to fit the move b) or it will do something else c) I am not updating anymore today
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11:12 AM ET obvious total fake out means 2135 at least. A) that's total wrap for this series B) that was a short comeback C) have a good one
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1:49 PM ET, 2180.XX, It's a double fake out. a) so here:
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b) and zoom in:
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c) so we have enough time now, to know the blue wave is going to turn d) and so we will be on time for chart at top 2300-2350 area
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e) this is not like the DECEMBER top at 2145 f) 3 months, they don't know what they talking about g) but that's still a wrap for me
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3:53 PM ET, No I can't prove it. a) so we are going to 2350 b) but how we do that is the issue c) it's not obvious yet, let me show why:
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d) in chart above, these two situations are not true fractals but that's why I chose them e) so based on strength of all trends combined, it's safe to say that 2150 is going to hold f) bc vs weaker situation in chart at right, it made a lower low, but not much lower g) in our case we don't even have to dip further than 2169 again h) but we CAN'T PROVE IT
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i) here is vs a situation where we WERE theoretically stronger
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j) so in chart above, I was ready for a move to 2189, and I stick save at 2179 k) but under that is a problem l) bc it bent the gray wave too far down m) but the longer trends are not going to back down n) so? o) so we up, but with A LOT of zig zag
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p) the interpretation is that: 1) medium term and long term traders are completely bullish 2) short term traders do not believe the price can keep going with out further correction 3) ultimately the longer term traders will win 4) but it's going to involve huge degree of short-term swing 5) like giant and sharp staircases
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6) mapping that is annoying AF so I will be back at 2200 after 2350 7) meaning after we get to 2350 and fail several times... 8) this pattern undoubtedly moves back to 2195-2222 area between the two recent highs 9) I will be back at that time 10) have a good weekend
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11) FWIW 04/05 NFP looks like big top/sell off
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THIS POST HAS ENDED: HERE IS 80-DAY DRAFT 6 TO HOLD YOU OVER: