FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
3717 33 61
It's important to check what happened at the previous FED minutes. More often than not these days were kind of reversal days. So get ready we might get our gold             bottom today. I highlighte by blue boxes where we had reversal in the past at FED minutes.
At these FED minutes reversals price many times tested back the lows that occured a few days before.
So just prepare for a test of 1240 or maybe a test of the 240 SMA at 1230 $.
As we are late in the daily cycle there will be no follow through after a spike down. I will be adding at the lower low level if there will be any.

As I'M watching the dollar the minutes release might be bearish for the dollar. We are just 3 weeks before elections. The strong dollar as bad as for today's power as the falling dollar or the falling SM.
The FED needs to take care of the balance so don't get surprised if it's obvious from the minutes release that no rate hike till December and gold             just rockets higher without any spike down.
Comment: It seems it's going to be a reversal again after FED minutes.
We just tested back the 20 & 50 EMA + the flag's trendline on the hourly after breaking out of the flag earlier in the night.
Comment: Now we need to print the daily swing. That will pull in the big players.
Swing level is at 1265.21$.
Comment: Daily RSI is leaving oversold.
Daily swing confirmed if we break above the Friday's high.
1230 seems like it
Thanks bud,,,, I will be watching. I have a 5% position in gold and looking to add tomorrow before US if it looks like we have some grounding.
We can even test the level of 1202, but we'll see
nice... ;)
what is the dcl ?
dcl = Daily cycle low

Gold - A potential bearish scenario

"Bottoms in the investment world don´t end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." - Jim Rogers

"The one who wants to protect his fortune doesn´t believe in anything but plans for everything." - Amschel Mayer Rothschild

Although its way too early for confirmation I thought it´s time to lay out a theoretical bearish scenario to make sure we are prepared for everything. In this case gold would move back towards $1,025 and make new lows..!!! But let me explain:
The 330$ rally since December 2015 has seen an important high at $1,262, an important low at $1,200 and another important high at $1,375. The weakness in gold since last week´s sell off is obvious. Should gold continue to slide lower it will very likely find a bottom somewhere around $1,210 - $1,220 followed by a sharp recovery towards $1,295 - $1,300. In that case we would have most of the ingredients for a bearish head and shoulder pattern if gold fails at the strong resistance around $1,300. If gold then comes all the way back down to the $1,200 neckline the pattern will get more and more obvious. A break through $1,200 finally will confirm the pattern and activate a price target at $1,025 based on the pattern height of $175.
What would increase the odds for this theoretical bearish scenario?
- Gold below $1,220 would shift the bigger picture (see Midas Touch Model)
- Gold continues the current sell off down to the neckline around $1,200
- Gold does not move back above $1,300 within the next 1-3 months
- Gold is breaking through the neckline at $1,200 (pattern confirmation)
- Gold is moving below $1,170 (= retracement larger than 61.8% of $330)
How can we make money in this scenario?
1. Buy gold around $1,200 - $1,220 and sell into the recovery around $1,295
2. Sell gold short around $1,295 with a stopp above $1,325 and hold this short-position until $1,025...
As already stated this is a theoretical scenario and should be understood as a backup plan.
+3 Reply
AriefBudisatria MidasTouchConsulting
midas smart view
+1 Reply
Nightstar AriefBudisatria
Smart, but very unlikely. This is a Bull Market.. People always lose sight of the big picture when the Market corrects and scares the heck out of everyone! It's always the same story.
+1 Reply
Agreed Nightstar. It's 0% chance that we go below 1045.
+2 Reply
well Arpi, we both said it´s extremely unlikely that we go below $1,300 again....and booooom here we are..
In retrospective my best results times in the markets came always when I planned in all directions... and that´s the idea behind this chart... it´s a backup plan in case gold does not move quickly back above $1,300...
What about your CoT-Charts, haven´t seen them in a while. I guess Friday´s numbers will be very interesting for an update..
MidasTouchConsulting MidasTouchConsulting
Short-term stochastic is bearish embedded and I guess the professionals will sell every rally toward $1,265.. we will get a bounce because gold is oversold on the daily and the weekly but I am not sure it will come immediately and I am not sure that it will take us back above $1,300. Actually the really important number is $1,325
MidasTouchConsulting MidasTouchConsulting
Just to clarify. I am a goldbug too but I am not willing to risk my hard earned capital blindly.
Gold is still down nearly $700 from its all time highs. A price above $1,920 will be the only confirmation that the bull indeed is back.
Yes, it has been rising in all other currencies and yes financial system is not sustainable and yes politicians and central bankers are extremely irresponsible. But nobody knows the future and this charts clarifies that gold needs to move back above $1,300 to keep the bullish hopes alive... so far the bounce from $1,240 has been shallow and weak..

Nightstar MidasTouchConsulting
Midas.. COT numbers are often a misleading indicator when a Bear turns into a Bull. And as per your comment on price needing to be above $1920 to confirm the Bull?? That sounds a bit outlandish :/

The Bull has already been confirmed time and time again.. In fact, the entire Commodity complex started a brand new Bull Market this year! Yes, there will be corrections along the way in order to reset sentiment. An ICL is suppose to scare the crap out of everyone; this is what we're seeing right now.

Ps: We saw the same thing with Crude btw.
Nightstar Nightstar
One last thing.. If you're gonna be writing a Newsletter then you need to add Cycle Analysis and Sentiment to your repertoire, or else you run the risk of misleading your readership.
here is my gold model.. it features sentiment, CoT and everything else..

The CoT gave the best buy signal in last December/January !!

All I am saying is that I am not sure yet about new bull market.. I wish and will be happy if it is indeed one but I personally think it is still too early.. the commodity sector has been so depressed that a snapback rally had to happen.. my thesis has always been in the last 9 months that gold needs to close above $1,530 to confirm a new bull.. everything else can still just be a bear market rally.

Next couple of weeks/months will be critical... a new and young bull should push prices higher soon again. if it fails at $1,300 or doesn't even make it to this number we know that something is wrong...

If you read my newsletter you will see that I told my reader to buy into $1,262.. again I have a holistic approach and not a narrow-minded approach
m4riovolp3 PRO MidasTouchConsulting
Gold will move back above $1,300 within the next 1-3 months. Reasons? Enough. EU Banks & fraud derivatives. In additional, if FED will rise the interests, what will happen with stock markets? :D lool :D And where will flee all the big players? Think about that :)
+2 Reply
m4riovolp3 PRO m4riovolp3
its time for a fall
DXY Dollar Index Long to 97,60 Area: with option to 99,xx
+2 Reply
m4riovolp3 PRO m4riovolp3
SHORT for DXY - possible up to 90.xx - but then...
+2 Reply
Nightstar m4riovolp3
That and also because the US has been printing Trillions of Dollars in paper currency which will eventually wreak havoc on the US Dollar..!
+1 Reply
albertwt MidasTouchConsulting
I think it iwll be down again just like last year pattern: FOMC Minutes Reveal a Much More Divided Fed
Price has held after the fed minutes above 1250 and did not retest the lows of the week. Since then every dip has been met with a bounce. Maybe the Chinese really have returned. Can a rally be next? The lack of a drop is a good sign.
Especially when dollar is bouncing so hard. This shows gold strength
+1 Reply
yes this is true.. the dollar strength in the last coupe of days did nothing to gold.. but gold is already on its knees.. and will not break the 200MA within 6 trading days.. so i would not overestimate but neither ignore this little divergence..
+1 Reply
you think it will come down a bit more from here?

Maybe at yellen's speech tomorrow. But I still think she will heavily try to push the dollar down. They need the export lobby before the elections.
You saw the minutes yesterday. The last FED meeting was hawkish...
+1 Reply
Yellin will be blowin smoke on Friday and blowing somebody on Saturday. That's my prediction. Ha
USSRandolph kidbroge
That was helpful
still ..hahahaha
I am out at break even. While gold, USD both show strength, the strength of USD appears to be greater than that of gold, now and in the future. That will likely weaken gold ultimately, it appears to me.
Damn this makes me skeptical of my gold long lol.
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