This is an update on the daily time frame for gold. Things have changed.
I see some sort of continuation pattern developing creating probability for the upside. Note carefully my disclaimer below.
For every probability estimate in one direction there is always a residual probability for the opposite direction (- this is why we have stop-losses which must always be affordable).
For the record - and just in case - I never predicted that Gold was gonna crash. This doesn't mean it can't crash. What I said on a previous occasion was that 'Gold could be in trouble' and yes it could still be in trouble even if it punches north.
Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, or miss opportunity, kindly sue yourself.
Great vid Capt. Given the beautiful bowl formation over the past 10 years, would you agree Gold has measured move to 2750/oz? Law of large numbers 3k?
Captain_Walker
⋅
@Charles.riley, I don't subscribe to a 'law of large numbers' - if others do that's fine.
I suspect that the 'bowl formation' you refer to is my parabolic projection shown on another related video. I've seen too many parabolic formations (for upside) collapse suddenly and violently. Those who got out in time would have punched the air. Those who didn't - take Bitcoin - went off sobbing. Some say Gold is different. Yes Gold is very different but we're talking about technical analysis. So I don't if 'some people' are gonna tell me that technical analysis treats Gold differently to Bitcoin (I hope not).
I don't know that 'Gold has measured to move to 2750/oz'. Gold has no will of its own. The market comprised of people, is what has the will. I have no access to what is in their minds.
What I said is that there is probably more upside but I cannot say how far up (and I cautioned about residual probabilities in the opposite direction, something that many traders seen to ignore).
The issue in the apparent bullish formation on the daily that I pointed to, is as simple as this: 'Can you take the risk?' The risk is always represented in your stop-loss (not you personally). A stop-loss means money you're willing to throw away. A lot of traders still don't get that.
So if a trader can take the risk and the volatility (the loss) in aiming for some particular perceived target or projection, then go for it. I don't do targets because my main strategy (trend following) can have no targets.
Each trader ought to consider FOMO in relation to their FOL (fear of loss). Basically if FOMO>FOL people jump in i.e. greed and hope exceed worries about loss (which I think is rather dim). If FOL>FOMO then people tend to stay out. No sensible trader should be persuaded (not that you suggested) to enter a trade in any direction by any analysis or expectation of a group of people.