Taking a look at the weekly chart, I am looking at the where stochastics cross over followed by the chart crossing the 15MA line. Naturally, there is always a lag between the 2 events... and the larger the MA period, the larger the lag (but the more accurate sense whether you're in a bull or bear trend).
At the start of 2017 stochastics crossed, then the chart crossed to confirm the bull trend. At the start of 2018, stochastics crossed, then the chart crossed the MA15 downwards for the bear trend that has just ended.
So the question is, now that stochastics have crossed, are we in a temporary correction or is there a further bear trend in the offing?
This weeks' bar is a higher high and higher low. The stochastics haven't crossed yet for an upward trend, but it is important to note its oversold.
If you look at late 2016 early 2017, a very similar pattern happened. There was a big gap between 15MA line and the chart. The chart bounced up after stochastics crossed for a steep climb back up.
The weak stochastic crossover suggests that we will be going sideways for another week, but the overall pattern resembles a 2016 like recovery back upwards. I expect the chart to cross back over the MA15 line somewhere around end of wave 1 up or wave 2 down in the next 5 wave up trend. Timeframe: 2-3 weeks
Trade closed manually
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Closed at breakeven. Literally made AUD$0.30 on it. Decided to close out as the chart is still way below the moving average. It's not even moving closer indicating we are still in a bearish trend.
1/8 is one of my key time fibonacci dates and the price target for this date has been missed. Additionally, the price has been sideways for a prolonged period.
I still believe a bull is coming, but the immediate reading is that the risks are to the downside.
If the 1209 floor is breached, I'm going short.
Tomorrow's calendar will provide more direction and I'll relook at all my ideas in light of that.
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