Gold Recovery or Bull Trap? XAUUSD 10/07

Jul 10

Gold is attempting to recover after finding short-term support around the 4,070 Fair Value Gap (FVG). While buyers have managed to slow the recent decline, the broader H1 structure remains bearish as price continues trading beneath the descending trendline and overhead supply.

The current rebound has yet to reclaim any major resistance or invalidate the existing bearish market structure. Unless buyers can break above the key reaction zone around 4,120–4,140, this move may simply represent a corrective retracement within the prevailing downtrend.

For now, sellers continue to hold the structural advantage.

📍 Currently

• Price is recovering from the 4,070 H1 FVG

• Buyers are attempting a short-term retracement

• Market remains below the descending trendline

• H1 bearish structure remains intact

• Internal liquidity rests around 4,130–4,140

• Major support remains at 4,030–4,040 Bullish OB + Liquidity

📈 Trading Plan

Bias: Bearish Continuation After Retracement

Main Zone

• 4,120–4,140 → H1 Supply + Descending Trendline Confluence

Execution Idea

If price continues retracing into the 4,120–4,140 resistance zone and shows signs of rejection, sellers may attempt to regain control and continue the broader bearish trend.

Failure to reclaim this confluence area would reinforce the view that the current recovery is corrective rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. On the downside, the 4,070 FVG and 4,030–4,040 demand remain the next key reaction zones.

🎯 Targets

→ TP1: 4,100 → Minor Support

→ TP2: 4,070 → H1 Fair Value Gap

→ TP3: 4,040 → Bullish OB + Liquidity

→ TP4: 4,030 → H1 Demand Zone

❌ Invalidation

A confirmed H1 candle close above 4,140 and a break of the descending trendline would weaken the bearish outlook and suggest buyers are regaining short-term control.

💡 Key Insight

A recovery into resistance is not the same as a trend reversal. Until Gold reclaims the descending trendline and key supply, rallies may continue to be viewed as corrective moves within the broader bearish structure.

❓ Key Question

Is Gold building enough momentum to break above resistance, or is this simply another retracement before sellers return?

Jul 10

Trade active

📍 XAUUSD H1 | Market Update

Gold is currently reacting around the Internal Dealing Range (IDM), where both buyers and sellers continue to compete for short-term control. Recent price action suggests that neither side has established a decisive advantage, resulting in a period of consolidation around this key area.

From my perspective, the broader H1 structure still favors the downside. As long as price remains below the descending trendline and fails to reclaim nearby resistance, the current reaction may simply represent temporary order flow before the next directional move.

My bias remains that Gold could extend lower into the 4,070 Fair Value Gap (FVG), where a stronger reaction may develop. This area is likely to provide a more meaningful indication of whether buyers can initiate a larger recovery or if the bearish trend will continue.

My bias: Bearish while price remains below resistance. The 4,070 FVG remains the key area I'm watching before any potential shift in market structure.