chartwatchers

GOLD - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT (31TH MAY)

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
2871 44 71
The Commitment of Traders report ( COT ) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data.
The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report.
We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .


The last Blees rating numbers (28) are showing that commercials were still heavily short in gold             this week Tuesday.
Though commercial short position has been decreased again: it is 23.756 less than last Tuesday.
The Blees were 28 Tuesday , it has been turning up but not big change.
(I noticed when the blees is turning down from 100 or turning up from zero the real decline/ rally is getting started. )

The blees rating at 28 is still showing to the lower prices.
(When blees will be between 50-70 that will show that longer term direction change is coming.)

I The problem that we don't know the COT/blees number after yesterday's big pop. The next number will come out next Friday showing 07.06. data. So the COT will not be in our help in next week's decisions.

Gold_COT reports source: http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1464982299.php
Comment: Formula for counting the blees number:
Commercial shorts-commercial longs= X
X-last 2 years minimum X number=Y
Last 2 years maximum X- Last 2 years minimum X =Z
Blees= Y/Z*100
Thanks for posting!
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Thanks for your hard work!
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you post great stuff. I expect Yellen to be hawkish Monday creating a corrective action in gold. it will be some kind of retrace after last Fridays Bullish action. ( it is her last public speech before rate hike decision on June 15. After Monday, federal law prohibits her from speaking publicly about interest rate until decision date june 15 - known as "quiet period"). after corrective action Monday, June 6, we will again have consolidation period until interest rate decision june 15. June 15/16 will see volatility based on interest decision. After june 15/16 we will again have consolidation (action will be driven by brexit polls) until a couple of days before Brexit vote June 23. volatility should pick up june 22-24. hope this helps, and thanks for everything you share!
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I wish the Federal Law prohibits Yellen from saying anything at all until the point after the rate changes being decided officially. Its unnecessary to manipulate the market with speculative comments that an interest hike is likely. Let the market figure things out from the data and reports available rather than opinions of the Feds. If Feds don't know for sure whether they will increase/decrease/leave the rate unchanged, they should just shut up and focus on gathering the data and analyze them carefully than wasting time with stupid public speeches.
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Thanks Arpi, the blees report can be valuable information in future trading and I appreciate you teaching and sharing this information. I agree that on Monday we should see a slow down in upward momentum after such a big move, some profit taking and retracement on the cards, might be worth a 'long' if we dip to mid 1220's, its a wait and see at the moment because another big green candle on Monday might be enough to tip us into the 1270's + which invalidates the ABC move (i think, may be I'm wrong on this), Yellen will say its only one months data and there was a big strike on so this should cool things down hopefully and we can short midweek 1250's/1260....anyway sorry for the waffling...best to you.
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Thanks Arpi ... all new stuff for me but really need to learn, really appreciate your work and sharing.
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hello chartwatchers it's very important to follow you. thanks for your analyses you are a pro.
i have a question can we open a buy position with TP: 1253? for short term?

thanks in advance
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chartwatchers PRO hadi.mestour
I suggest not to enter now. If we have a 10$ decline down to 1234$ we will be still in profit because we enter early.
You will not be happy if you suffer a 10$ drawdown.
The next opportunity will comw most probably at Friday.

If you can't wait and want to risk then enter tomorrow (Sunday) at the open 22:00 GMT and wait for a 5-8$ bounce and sell. If price starts to fall 1-2 $ after the open then sell , don't risk it might fall. I will be trading at the open. I will post if I sell.
But you cannot go to sleep - you have to be at the computer till you don't close.
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nnavarrete chartwatchers
Looking forward for your input tomorrow night to be ready for US market open $JNUG $JDST. Have a wonderful weekend!
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hadi.mestour chartwatchers
Thanks for your response with respect.
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what is commertial selling?? and Blees rating?? can anyone help me??
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Commercials are always short. They are hedging the production to control the price.
When price is running away their short position is running above 350-400.000 so
we can know that price will have a correction.
The problem - as with all other datas - we got this 3 days later.
Of course there are people who has it every Tuesday....
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isaac312 PRO chartwatchers
Running away means down? And who would has the data?? Soros?? Or Fed only??
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Running away means if it goes up too much
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isaac312 PRO chartwatchers
Last question! Hedging production is which mean?? Thank you Arpi
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chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
The big guys. Goldman. The FED doesn't care gold price too much...
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isaac312 PRO chartwatchers
Arpi! Thank you. Last thought
Banks do what ?? I hv no idea. Is it all hedge funds?? No prop trading in Bulge braket banks ?! Also FED must suppress the gold and preserve the usd value ( supply demand of dollar, thats why fed finish qe 2013 and right after jp, eu qe more than us to preserve usd value and supress all commodity and inflations to make fabricate strong usd. (US planed) Fed must look careful not only dxy but gold. Relation btw credit currency and physical money
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Us hold power due to USD that make us to do only import, no need to export. Usd created a wealth which was exist by paging with crude oil. Petro dollar in 1974. Since then, global had economic boom. But the demand side had weaken, oversupply of usd, less purchasing power, due to less deamd and oversupply since 2000s. 2008 is also not consequence of the fundamentals. Fed or us or major. Fed make revenue by qe, us keep power, major make money in paper companies. This era is about to end. Saudi is aparting from us now. There is a reason for everthing happen in macro economics.

Jp is end dead, why abenomics has been implementd? EU draghi? All in planed same baot, which they planed.

Anyway, FEDs exit stratedgy is not reduce boom but keeping value of usd (inflation). The true power of us. Yuan cant create value. Now demand side, global is shrinking, less pie. Which means, gold or physical will be bullish once, fed had to do helicopter money or cut rate i. 2017.

JPs econ is fuked up, EU, CH gloiously all debt debt debt issues. Very frigile.
This time is going to be 3x than 2008 and there is no way to bust up by vegi central bank autorities, whom lost all bullets.
Since 2010, macro econ did not growth, but power of money to sick into market s.p, nikkei, futse.
Look at now. No power to bust market.. Need a correction.
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Do you mean we are going into a recession? And stock markets will collapse?
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isaac312 PRO chartwatchers
Inevitably yes in macro fundamental. With my short vision, I am expecting more like 08look, sudden collapse.
Trigger wont be from us but default in jp, CH s banks, eu, or somewhere else in emergings. The market is on the bubble of course. Who knows. I am preparing for put huge in a day and all central banks will do qes or whatever takes then gold bullish .
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Haha why Fed is hegitating to hike rate?! Why EU is suffering?? Why JP Abenomic has been doing? All are failed to bring demand and make economic boom to make inflation. Oversupply CH too much NPL debt in corporations are risky thats why soros friends drankenmiller, legendary hfs betting against yuan. Legendary hf managers are shorting 130% net exposure. There is a reason for it to do that :). Deflation crisis then hellicopter money then hipher inflation when usd balue is collpse, meaning , market andppl questioning about currency
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Expecting 2017 2q, 3q
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Your call on gold spike is right! From January, and break the chart.
Soros friends are going to buy too.

Question is they are buying the real gold??
Many hf expecting usd collpase dxy to 65. I hv research that ;) then gold price at now will be never seen before;)
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I am giving too many great information for free ;) cz you thebest !!! Thanks Arpi
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I don't think we are in a recession. They've stopped the falling oil prices. The commodity decline was a big danger for the whole world. Now oil , NatGas, metal prices are stabilized and everybody is printing money we don't have to be worried about recession in 3-4 years. What you are visioning is a horrible inflation and collapse of the currencies. That should come only in 202x. That's not our problem. All of us will make terrible money in gold , stocks, and oil by that time.
Just be sure to invest this money into lands or into your private company : a successfull biotech company, or agricultural staff, or mineral water company.
In 2020-30 life extension and food will be the real value.
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isaac312 PRO chartwatchers
Haha Thanks Arpi, but you should check the debt ratio of JP, EU, CH else where asap.
Learn more about JP, and fundamental of FX.
This is what happen from 09crisis. I am not saying we are in resession.
We will pretty soon. Look at CH gdp growth. The real one os 3.4%. Commodity price up and up due to qes of jp, eu, us. Pri ting more and more. We faced deflation, money velocity is decreasing.
Talk to real estate asset managers, what would they say now lol
Why major real estate guys are dumping now to cash? Waiting for crisis and buy at the low like 08.10.

Lets look at DEutsche bank, it has tons of bad debts also out of its book from italy, greece, spain etc to do more business and has many cds each others like liman brothers crisis 08. China is buying gold secretly a ton, there is a reason for it. Looking at chinas corporate debt is too high 286% to gdp. Also many carry trade from us and jp in globally. Hike interest killing all emergings,

Now malaysia, Singapore, HK, anywhere are doing bad and we will see worse and worse because of lack of demand power driving economic boom. Barclays degrade us gdp growth from2.7 to 2.2 few days ago. Even us has tons of debt. This debt has been never deleveraged as we know.

Its not about price of commodity. By devaluation currency by central banks, all comodity will incrase. Also El nino last year and this winter El nina is coming cold as fuk then all commodity will spike and sugar soybean already spike, natural gas too.

3-4is too naive to be belive. Hike price in commodity looks good surface, but bring high inflation to many countries and hike i tere rate push default in hugest debt now in the hisotry... Peace. So I believe in gold
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One more lol currency devaluation. I been research this and hisotirclally proven, when ppl lose trust and faith in government and banks, collpse happen fast. Germany, zimbabewae, Roman empire. :) there is reason why central bank are doing this things and everything is planed favor of major, us. So I also believe little about conpiracy. Why eu jp do qe right after us finish? Why belgium bought tons of us bond to hold demand for usd when russia is selling off lol why now us is interventing countries to stop currency war? Lol everthing has a story. Conncting all dots
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Then we agree regarding gold. It's in a bull market for years.
But don't want me to bet on the end of world: I want the banks to pay me out in 2020...
:)
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eskgroup chartwatchers
LOL!
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saint_athur chartwatchers
Arpi, care to clarify about above statement? Bad NFP data will not trigger to bullish trend as per what retailers predict that we're heading to 1335? Maybe Im worry to much since i still hold 3/4 of 1304 short positition.
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isaac312 PRO saint_athur
:) why didnt you closed before and now?
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saint_athur isaac312
My first target 1150 :) based on my technical analysis. To hold the position I must follow what smart money think.
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isaac312 PRO saint_athur
Follow, Arpi :)
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Short again? It will become short aggressive ??
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Indicator?
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thank you very much
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HI Arpi, I looked at your link above godless.com (COT repot)......I can't find the Blees numbers? Please could you help...thanks again
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Givingthelowdown Givingthelowdown
i mean goldseek
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Staxs Givingthelowdown
Check the COT chart published from last week, Blees explained there.
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I have, no mention of Blees, click on link, it will give you all the traders figures, shorts, longs etc...but you won't find Blees numbers....I searched Blees on website nothing comes up, i googled 'Blees numbers' and that only takes you to this website...confused
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chartwatchers PRO Givingthelowdown
I updated , but don't waste time on counting.
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Givingthelowdown chartwatchers
I see now....thank you...this is priceless!
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Thank you Arpi
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thank you for information
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