Gold Rejects Key Moving Averages: Is a Deeper Correction?

Aug 11

Gold(XAUUSD) has successfully broken below the Support Lines and recently tested the 100_SMA(Daily) and 21_SMA(Weekly).

However, the price failed to break above these key moving averages and started to decline with strong bearish momentum.

Can gold reclaim $4,400, or is a deeper corrective move already underway?

Technical Analysis

From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed its Primary Wave 5, suggesting that a broader corrective phase to the downside may now be beginning.

The rejection from the 100_SMA(Daily) and 21_SMA(Weekly), combined with the breakdown of the Support Lines, further strengthens the bearish scenario.

💡 Educational Note: After the completion of a Five-Wave Impulsive Structure, Elliott Wave theory typically expects a corrective phase, often developing in an A-B-C structure.

I expect gold to decline at least toward $4,341. If bearish momentum increases, the correction could extend toward $4,315.

Trade Setup

First Take Profit(TP): $4,341

Second Take Profit(TP): $4,320

Third Take Profit(TP): $4,299

Stop Loss(SL): $4,410(Worst)

Key Trading Level: $4,342

Which level do you think gold will reach first?

🔴 $4,299

🟢 $4,410

📌 Gold Analysis(XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame

🛑 Always use proper risk management and set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position.

🚀 If this analysis helps your trading plan, a BOOST would help more traders discover it.

Aug 12

Trade active

Aug 12

Note

Based on the recent weakness in US labor-market data, especially NFP at -23K and Average Hourly Earnings at 0.1%, the market had room to expect a softer CPI report that could further weaken the US Dollar.

However, today’s CPI data came exactly in line with expectations:

Core CPI m/m: 0.2% vs 0.2% expected

Core CPI y/y: 2.5% vs 2.5% expected

CPI m/m: 0.1% vs 0.1% expected

CPI y/y: 3.4% vs 3.4% expected

This means the market did not receive a fresh dovish surprise, so the probability of another immediate upside move in Gold, Bitcoin, and US stock indices has decreased. In the short term, this increases the risk of a corrective pullback or profit-taking, especially after the recent rallies.

At the same time, inflation is still gradually cooling on a yearly basis, so this is not necessarily a strong bearish signal—more a loss of bullish momentum than a major trend reversal.

Aug 12

Note

🔴Short position was activated.

🔵Entry Point: 4427.000 USD  (Limit Order)

💸Take Profit: 4383.000 USD➡️Risk-To-Reward: 2.32

⛔️Stop Loss: 4446.000 USD

Aug 12

Note

You can hold the take-profit level at $4,351.00, resulting in a risk-to-reward ratio of 4.00 for the position.

Aug 12

Note

You can transfer your Stop Loss (SL) to Entry Point (EP) for risk-free trading

Aug 13

Trade closed manually

The Gold position has now been moved to risk-free (breakeven).

If you’re one of the followers who saw the signal a little later, you may have already taken some profit, or you may still be holding for the full target with a Risk-to-Reward Ratio of 4.00.

For the public setup, I’m officially marking this position as risk-free. Personally, I managed the trade using a trailing stop and have already locked in profit from the position.

As always, respect proper risk management and be prepared for every possible market scenario. Trade safe.