Our take on our favorite yellow metal...

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Weekly Timeframe: Recent developments on the weekly timeframe show that price is heading back down towards the weekly swap level seen at 1251.5 following a clear break above weekly supply at 1296.3-1269.3.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the buyers and sellers are currently pulling for position in between a daily decision-point supply area seen at 1297.4-1284.3 and the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1251.5.

4hr Timeframe: Very little activity has been seen since we last analyzed our favorite metal. Price is currently seen bouncing between 4hr support at 1256.7, and a 4hr swap level at 1271.9. Trading in between this band is viable in our opinion (buys seen at 1257.4, sells at 1271.4) but would require confirmation on the lower timeframes (for us) since consolation seems to attract fakeouts by nature!

We know form the higher timeframe picture that price is presently trading above a weekly swap level (1251.5) at the moment, which in itself is a nice indication that we may eventually see higher prices. Where does this leave us on the 4hr timeframe then? Well, apart from buying and selling within the current ranging band, one would need to wait for price to breakout. A break above the 4hr swap level at 1271.9 would open the doors for further upside towards 4hr supply coming in at 1284.9-1278.1. Attempting to buy on the break, or retest for that matter would potentially cause unnecessary stress with the aforementioned 4hr supply looming just above, as such this is something we have no interest in taking part in. On the flip side, if price breaks below the 4hr support level at 1256.7, further downside will likely be seen towards the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1251.5. Now, we’re sure you’ll agree with us when we say that selling here is not really the most effective way to trade, especially into a weekly swap level! Buying on the other hand once price hits the 1252.1 mark (just above the weekly swap level at 1251.5) would (with lower-timeframe confirmation) be a low-risk high probability trade.

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: 1257.4 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1255.0) 1252.1 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

• Sell orders: 1271.4 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1274.5).

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