ICmarkets

XAUUSD 8th Jult Multi TF Analysis

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
228 0 3
Daily TF.

A reminder of what the daily timeframe looks like shows how ugly the daily supply area at 1318.12-1331.08 is! How anyone could possibly trade this mess as it is now, let’s see what new developments are on the 4hr timeframe.

4hr TF.

The market opened at 1320             .53, sellers took control right away pushing price ever so closer to the weak-looking 4hr demand area at 1304.77-1308.55.

Technically, price has not changed much so the last analysis still remains strong:

Price spiking above daily supply (levels above) nearly hit a great-looking 4hr supply area at 1342.30-1335.74. Now, if this is indeed a fakeout above daily supply (levels above), price may yet rally prices further into the aforementioned 4hr supply area to consume all the sellers’ stops lurking above daily supply (levels above).

If price positively closes below 4hr demand at 1304.77-1308.55 we can be quite confident it was indeed a fakeout without the need for price to rally higher in the 4hr supply area (levels above). If, however price consumes the 4hr supply area above (1342.30-1335.74), we can be pretty sure it is a continuation move. Only time will tell, but we definitely favor a fakeout

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71. We have set a P.A confirmation buy order here simply because we could not find a logical area for the stop-loss order, so to avoid any deep spikes; we have decided to wait for confirmation.P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1304.77-1308.55) at 1309.75. We did not think a pending buy order was wise here due to the amount of spikes/tails seen already to this area, hence the need to wait for confirmation.Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (1342.30-1335.74) at 1334.17. A pending sell order is set here because this is the likely area pro money will push prices to if indeed a fakeout of daily supply (1318.12-1331.08) is happening, thus a pending sell order is valid.No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

The daily timeframe shows price is still trading around daily supply at 1318.12-1331.08. It is very difficult to see if the wick/spike above the aforementioned daily supply area was a genuine continuation move or a fakeout. The 4hr timeframe shows price is currently trading in between 4hr demand at 1304.77-1308.55 and 4hr supply at 1342.30-1335.74 with a break yet to be seen either side, however do watch these areas just mentioned as a break of either could very well answer our questions as to whether a fakeout of daily supply (1318.12-1331) is occurring.

Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: There are currently no pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1285.71 (SL: (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 1309.75 (SL likely to be set at 1303.11 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1334.17 SL: 1343             .78 TP: Dependent on approaching price action) P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.
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