FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
5791 66 99
Nine days.
That's what we needed in gold             during the first part of the year to print 3 powerful rallies. (Green rectangles)
I think the same thing is happening right now.
Oil             has entered into a steep decline. We might heading down into the DCL. The elections are coming in 8 days and one of the nominees is might getting accused by the FBI.
If that happens that will not be positive for the stocks exchange and the dollar... I cannot imagine a better scenario for gold             than pre-election chaos with falling stocks plus falling oil             with the weakening dollar... Until the US election gold             might print this year's most powerful rally in 9 days.

Last Friday
We need to talk a few words about last Friday. ( Pls             see the 15 min chart below)
We had a really good US GDP data. ( Maybe too good... :Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2016 ) What else can we wait at the end of Obama's presidency than a very good GDP data? But the dollar couldn't rally more on the fantastic near 3% GDP number. In the next 10 minutes after the news it bounced and continued its decline. The same happened to gold             : a breakdown and a buyback after the first 10 minutes . The unlimited seller was back again and he made a mistake: he was trying to suppress gold             against the weakening dollar. He left his fingerprint on the chart. This was the sign that he was working hard... But when the FBI news came out it stopped the selling immediately. From that point this unlimited player was out of the game. On Friday and today gold             and dollar was traded inversely I haven't seen any sign of price control. This makes our predictions easier...

Indicators
We are above the 10 EMA and the 200 EMA . Also last week Friday we regained the 200 SMA and today we are not just closing above the 200 SMA but closing at a higher daily high.

I think in the next few days gold             will be driven by the weakening dollar and falling stocks . As money flowing out of SM , oil             and dollar it will find its way into precious metals.

It's time for our 50-100$ pop.
Comment: We've just broke the "FBI high" ...
Comment:
snapshot
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: I was referring to Friday's hourly chart but it was not posted somehow.
I posted it again:
Comment: Above
Comment: So just as I said a week ago no lower low will be in gold.
I think I posted the maximum number of posts at the bottom.
At least the haters cannot post that I abandoned my gold posts.
snapshot
Comment: Day 5. Printed a 40$ rally till today.
Comment: Day 6 was on Friday. 3 more days till the top. So we are going to peek on Wednesday : it's the day after the elections.
Let's do this thing.
+1 Reply
Sir .. assuming uncertainity upon election is reasonable, however it is only a prediction.
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The Unlimited Seller is probably the same guy ramping up the SPX lately. I'd dress up like him for halloween...except nobody would get it LOL Go team Gold!
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Unlimited Seller = US
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
;)
+1 Reply
cjprange chartwatchers
Absolutely, you can see how fake the markets have been lately. Passing the problems on to the next president. Can you imagine the top secret 'ramping department'? Bunker under a mountain, room full of shadowy bankers and traders LOL
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suli chartwatchers
Arpi - are you still in GDX or GDJ ?
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selfhigh05 PRO chartwatchers
I think he is back, look at the price action it started about 30 minutes ago.
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I dont think he can break momentum now. He gave up after FBI
+1 Reply
I'm not a big fan of Trump but would like to see him elected just to upset the US political system, which in my opinion continues to rot from the inside out :/
+7 Reply
USSRandolph Nightstar
I would not like to see Trump elected. I agree that he would upset the political system but not likely in a positive way. Yes, Ms Clinton has a lot of controversy surrounding her, but what she has going for her is that she is familiar with government and would know how to make things work and get things done. There are many concerns I have about Trump that I won't reiterate here, but I agree that he would be good for gold. That's all re politics since this isn't a political forum. Happy trading!
+2 Reply
investment6300 USSRandolph
I am sorry ! Clinton has f..cked every project she has been on (people that left in top positions have confirmed that while she does not know a C on a email as confidential) , she has no clue security not even mentioning emails but publicly says mentions US president response time on national TV, which is top secret. She just does the bid for the highest player the Clintons has many funds never audited funded from world criminals to terrorists. She has been protected. She has not proven as one of the most corrupt. Haiti funds they set up of millions they did not even pass 2% on, (how scrupulous can you be) Go search all investigations on her while Bill was president. She is out to make was has no value for lif where she was involved and the find how many people are dying. Go take an objective look at all the smoke signals of that family, illegal firearm trade to drugs..google!
+2 Reply
My man, you are just a tad early again. I love your work, your ideas actually make me a much better trader but i would advise on paying a little more attention to macros then your work would be flawless. 1) GDP data was actually not as good as it seemed thats why Dollar did not rally. Believe it or not the actual GDP was at 1.9%. 1% of the data came from a massive export of "SOY BEANS" to south America. Yes, Soy Beans. You can actually look at the data on Bloomberg terminal. 2) Gold and Silver will make one final dip before the CPI data which is released mid Nov. then it will advance until next year. The Gold and Silver run would be massive like 1970 style. This is the commodity cycle, Dollar is on its last legs. Appreciate your work. BTW "THERE WILL BE NO HIKE IN DECEMBER"
+4 Reply
MMadryga shawn.ctech
Another .6% was inventory so terrible GDP data.
+1 Reply
USSRandolph shawn.ctech
Well, GDP wasn't as it seemed. Thanks for the insightful info. Makes me wish I knew more and motivates me to learn. Where exactly on Bloomberg? Thanks again.
+1 Reply
Bloomberg terminal. You wil not find it. Shawn works for a bank or broker most probably.
+2 Reply
shawn.ctech chartwatchers
Sorry guys i know people dont have access to Bloomber Terminal. You can also see an article about it on Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/4016801-saved-soybeans?app=1&uprof=44&isDirectRoadblock=false
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Tend to agree: middle of November could be the first DCL in gold.
But most probably we will not see 12650-70 again.
+1 Reply
shawn.ctech chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, here we are. We are almost there, thats why i was saying you are just a tad early, thats all :)
+1 Reply
shinsky shawn.ctech
My man, you're a tad late :)
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Im assuming you are referring to my comment. Looks like an impatient trader... Im not late i have already opened a long position. Im not disagreeing with Apri's work. Im just saying if you are looking for the last turn this is not it.
+1 Reply
@shinsky, You are not making fun of me anymore? :)
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Thanks for this analysis. What do you think will be the consequences for miners? Seems to me like weakening stocks will limit the upside compared to gold
+1 Reply
Arpi, the time has come. Looking for a savage rally. LOL
+1 Reply
... interesting... tx arpi. :-)
+1 Reply
Was there anything interesting from the COT report?
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the question is since we are now at 1285$ how it is possible miners are even lower than their level when we were holding 1270$ barely? any explanation please (:
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Miners lag sometimes by 3-5 days behind prices. They are equity baskets so could correlate with general equity markets. Dont expect a 100% correlation.
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jolu shawn.ctech
thank you very much!
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Lord_Snow PRO shawn.ctech
still think we will see a turn around before more upside?? I thought so.. and maybe the 1285 dip was it.. but the dollar is losing ground and gold shows no sign of slowing down through election... Common sense tells me that it needs another pullback first.. and miners appear to be losing steam, however still no side of the the downside correction I am expecting with them
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shawn.ctech Lord_Snow
Yes, im very confident, because im not reading it based on gold itself. Most investors dont follow the bond market because its borring, not enough action... But there are many clues that roll from the treasuries. As i expressed before the relationship goes from yields to dollar to precious metals to miners. Yields increase one more time until CPI data, that's a big indicator for the Fed for the Dec NO hike since inflation will be lower than 2%. Then the market will get the message that probability of Dec hike goes down, yields drop, dollar follows, gold suges. That will continue until Dec. FOMC meeting then the actual announcement will take gold higher to 2017.
+1 Reply
@shawn.ctech, thank you for the explanation. It sounds like a complicated correlation but as I don't like to follow trade calls blindly it's worth studying it :-) By the way, where would be the best place to find information on the treasury yields.???
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shawn.ctech catrionaforex
@catrionaforex, Bond market is closed today but this is the best place to track all short and long term bonds, just remember Gold has a very close relationship to the 3 year treasuries. Longer term bonds could react differently. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us
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@shawn.ctech, much appreciated, thank you!
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thanks... I really lke your point of view...thanks
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Economic cloak and dagger stuff! Love it!
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Arpi, with a rally in gold, would you tag the Oct 7 low as an ICL, or are you expecting a lower low after this rally? I think we're due after this cycle high, or we just had an early ICL. I understand politics and policy causing some volatility in the recent cycles, but I'm trying to reconcile a few good teachers and economists.
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Nightstar bertcoin
Our friend from Gold Predict is/was calling for one more low, but it's looking less and less likely in my opinion.
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bertcoin PRO Nightstar
And he's hedging on that call too, pending the FED minutes tomorrow.... I don't think a 9 day rally will break the down trend of lower highs since July, so a lower low may still be in order afterwards.... I guess that depends on who's elected too.... Either way, next year's going to be a nice ride in gold!
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We have had a nice run since last Friday. What is the next major level of resistance for gold? Is now a good time to take profits and wait for a pull-back down to 1265-1250? Thanks!
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Don't forget the NFP which will bring gold down tomorrow Wednesday , seeking for the support , so your number depends on the elections , if Hillary wins , you will not see your 1360. If Trump wins , you will see 1360 and above.
+1 Reply
saint_athur BjornPfaff
Hsbc said either trump or hillary win, keep buying gold cause their manifesto bring gold more shine. I already close all my long position just leave 1242 and 1250 position. Now im waiting to re entry at 1270-1273
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why you use RSI 6?
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Yes, but should we not check with Bjorn "The magnificent" first Arpi?
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instigator
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Nightstar webmiztriz
Shit! You saw that? Damn it. I was hoping I'd get away with it :')
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;o) mmmmhmmmmm .....
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Thank you!
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I can only say you are the best and who ever say the contrary is just jealous.. You have a huge rate of success in your analysis such as this one oil and gas etc . predicating at the exact moment the fall just when all seems great !
I had love to learn from you !!
Where do did you learn all this way of calculating cycles etc.. i do not find proffesional data on the web . Could you send your sources and origines so i coul take time and study it..please
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You're amazing Arpad, thanks for sharing your great ideas with us. Keep shining like gold man...
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Yes, from almost USD 100 loss 40% rally it's good, but it's still less then a half of it. Arpi,in September, before a big drop, you showed a chart with your recommendations for Gold longs. You said that almost all recomendations with the profit. Nowadays most part of them with loss. When I and other who follow you close positions with the profit you really can say that all who follow for your with enough patience will have a profit. Hope Gold up spike do it on the next week.

I am don't have new Gold position, but if you are sure that this rally will be continue for near USD 50 more I will buy it. Is it good moment for this with current price near 1300 or have a sence wait when it's come to the down line of current bull flag near 1280 ?

I am closely look to all your posts and most part of it give a profit. May be I am unlucky, but when I follow you I have a loss (it's about current Gold position and about call of first short for NATGAS, when I and you close it with the loss). After that I unfortunately miss your second Natgas short call which currently have a great profit and your posts about Gold long from levels near USD 1250.
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I'm not sure what you are trying to say or ask but one thing that becomes clearly obvious from your post that you blindly follow someone's buy/sell signals. Though applying this strategy you might close some positions with profit, you are very likely to still lose at the end. And if I interpret your post correctly, that's exactly what's happening.

The purpose of Arpi sharing his ideas here is not to trade for you or anyone else. He provides a high quality analysis and extremely valuable insights into the general action and direction based on the best information available to him at the time of posting. Yes, he does gets occasionally excited about certain things but I rather attribute it to him being an optimistic individual than anything else.

However, unless you learn how to trade on your own and have your own trading plan, you'll remain destined to lose money. In this case, Arpi's posts will do more harm than good to you as you'll continue taking and closing your positions in complete darkness.
+1 Reply
VirtualFax VirtualFax
I realize my post is not filed with much of empathy but I really don't know what else to say. Same as no one in their right state of mind would put a three year old behind the wheel on a highway regardless of how passionate the kid could be about cars, people shouldn't be trading blindly without bothering to formally train themselves to do so. Even the most successful traders lose and lose big. However, not also they have patience but also the knowledge to recover and get ahead. Hence, the knowledge is key in trading.
+1 Reply
You have to decide by yourself who you want to follow. If you check all of my calls from the beginning you will see that I'm in profit. Great profits. Not only me but all those ppl who are following me after my March oil and gold calls.
Did I have bad calls? Yes . One of them the Jesse Livermore short but at the end I closed that near to zero before Brexit.
The other one was this gold call in September. Gold was capped in that triangle and banks had broken it down at night. I didn't know they are going to do that... And the short players who made money on that trade - it was only a 3 day drop- explaining how good they were technically predicting that move are still short. And when I will be making money even with my 1337 $ longs they will drop back twice as much money what they've gained on their shorts.
Gold shouldn't have broken down but it did in September.
If you follow me and work with 20-30% margin impact on your account you will be in big profit at the end of the year. Not 800-1000% ( I know people here who are 4-500% plus this year trading with me) but 50-100% for sure. The biggest problem that most people here not using money management. Going all in on one call. Even if you go 100% margin impact in 5-6 vehicles : like gold, NatGAs, Oil, Stocks, Miners at the end of the day the result will be a blown out account. If you go all in gold even at the beginning of an intermediate cycle your account will go to zero. This is a psychological game and every trader have to fight basic instincts like fear, greed etc. If you listen to them banks will turn them against you and you will lose. I'M trying to give to my followers beside the technicals and cycles some kind of psychological knowledge what I was studying in the university and could use it very well during the last 16 years of trading.
So I cant guarantee you that gold will spike up next week. If I could guarantee we wouldn't be chating here I would be sitting in the FED or at Goldman.

Gold is the toughest vehicle. A few banks are controlling the price. If you want to recover your account I suggest not gold but NatGas or Stocks after the elections. It's much easier.
Or oil which is a huge market and one nation like the USA cannot push up or down the price at wish.

Market is a battlefield. Every country trying to weaken their currency for strengtheing their export. The banks are fleecing the retail traders and hedge funds by stop runs and midnight attacks. The brokers are living from you. The algos are searching for your weak points to stop you out, and we are programmed to lose psychologically. If it was easy to make money here every trader would be making millions in Forex.
+16 Reply
leonarddavidson60 chartwatchers
THANKS,Arpi for your insight..very true..trading gold is battlefield..and major players (5 bullion banks,one being a known proxy for the Fed together with their partners at BIS) are conducting an open warfare on small to medium size investors and traders..it is getting harder and harrder to trade against their HFT algorythmic platforms executing thousands of trades in milliseconds in open sessions...that is why you need constantly upgrade/improve your strategy studying their trading patterns which are constantly changing especially in wee hours before the markets open..Thanks again for your insights ..much appreciated..
Long GDXJ and JNUG!!!
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toothless chartwatchers
Wait, wait, wait....I thought Robin Hood was not for sale? hah!

If you get that joke, it means you've been following chartwatchers for quite some time. I'm up near 50% in my account (and climbing as I recover my gold longs), my friend's nickname is HOOYD 100, and we both started off brand new 8 months ago knowing absolutely nothing, but have since been learning as we go with chartwatchers. If you're in the red with him, you are definitely doing something wrong with your own strategy and money management. I mean SERIOUSLY something wrong, since I didn't know SH*T before and made some big mistakes along the way to my 50%.
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Prof7 toothless
I am very appreciate to your Arpi and others who commented my post!

I would like to say that I am not new in trading. One year before this August I worked only with depersonalized metal account in a bank without credit shoulder with year profit near 15%. And I worked many years like a trader in a bank and investment company.

From August I put some amount of capital to Forex and working on them all day. Currently I am working with 24 instruments (metals, oil and gas, major forex pairs, indexes and 1-2 shares). As far as I try to build my own trade strategy I trying different ways - intraday trading, short time investments and long time portfolio strategy (not very good due swap payments).

Like a part of this I decided to use, like VirtualFax rightly said, blind method and choose Arpi for this (he have holistic view for the things on market and best way to understand how it's works follow him with a real market position). Currently I use for this not more then 10% of margin, but for today it's not work well. Nevertheless other my operations give me a profit and my total 2 month profit (without current Gold minus) near 40% of my margin account.

I think it's good advise from Arpi follow him with 20-30% of margin with all his deals. If adding 20% of margin will give 50-100% profit it will be enough to compensate Gold minus which currently minus near 15% of margin.

So I will do it and let's see what will happen.

Thanks Arpi personally and all other who helping me!!!
+3 Reply
Now you speak like a man! : )
+1 Reply
Prof7 chartwatchers
Please, see my comment below in the current topic "Gold-nine days".
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kidbroge chartwatchers
Thanks Arpi. Have been trading for years and still can't make it happen. I can analyze a market nine ways to Sunday but it's always been one step forward two steps back. What you mentioned about stop hunting is so real. I don't know how many times I had it right only to get stopped out and see the market turn. You and others in the community have been helpful but it's tough real tough. The toughest thing I ever attempted but will keep on keep in on. For the new people remember when you make a trade the decision and responsibility is yours. Blame no one but yourself if you got hit between the eyes. That's how it goes. If you can't take the heat get out of the kitchen.
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shawn.ctech chartwatchers
The only reason you missed the Gold call in Sep. was due to the Money Market reform. That increased demand in the Dollar, there was a deadline that had to be met, a lot of investors missed it. No one was really sure how that event effects the overall market. We are actually lucky we didnt get a massive sell off in the equity markets since LIBOR was rising to elevated levels due to short term rates falling.
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Then why the commercial shorts increased their volume since last week ? Long 115.000 Short 354.000 seems shorts are getting into the game now
+3 Reply
shinsky BjornPfaff
Because they love you Bjorn. Just like how you love yourself so much!
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff shinsky
Lmao , if you know what a COT report is , then you would not have such a tone my best friend.

Keep believing in what you belief.


Peace !
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COT report has never been design to give any clue to retail investors..it has another purpose ..however,some people who follow it from the beginning ,are able to pick up a "familiar" pattern signature of bullion banks intentions in medium ,but rarely in short term timeframes..but recent spike in short time interest ..should be viewed as a positive signal..bullion banks are getting ready for next week gold price spike..
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This chart is telling us Trump will win the election :P
+1 Reply
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