FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
5825 66 100
Nine days.
That's what we needed in gold             during the first part of the year to print 3 powerful rallies. (Green rectangles)
I think the same thing is happening right now.
Oil             has entered into a steep decline. We might heading down into the DCL. The elections are coming in 8 days and one of the nominees is might getting accused by the FBI.
If that happens that will not be positive for the stocks exchange and the dollar... I cannot imagine a better scenario for gold             than pre-election chaos with falling stocks plus falling oil             with the weakening dollar... Until the US election gold             might print this year's most powerful rally in 9 days.

Last Friday
We need to talk a few words about last Friday. ( Pls             see the 15 min chart below)
We had a really good US GDP data. ( Maybe too good... :Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2016 ) What else can we wait at the end of Obama's presidency than a very good GDP data? But the dollar couldn't rally more on the fantastic near 3% GDP number. In the next 10 minutes after the news it bounced and continued its decline. The same happened to gold             : a breakdown and a buyback after the first 10 minutes . The unlimited seller was back again and he made a mistake: he was trying to suppress gold             against the weakening dollar. He left his fingerprint on the chart. This was the sign that he was working hard... But when the FBI news came out it stopped the selling immediately. From that point this unlimited player was out of the game. On Friday and today gold             and dollar was traded inversely I haven't seen any sign of price control. This makes our predictions easier...

Indicators
We are above the 10 EMA and the 200 EMA . Also last week Friday we regained the 200 SMA and today we are not just closing above the 200 SMA but closing at a higher daily high.

I think in the next few days gold             will be driven by the weakening dollar and falling stocks. As money flowing out of SM , oil             and dollar it will find its way into precious metals.

It's time for our 50-100$ pop.
Comment: We've just broke the "FBI high" ...
Comment:
snapshot
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: I was referring to Friday's hourly chart but it was not posted somehow.
I posted it again:
Comment: Above
Comment: So just as I said a week ago no lower low will be in gold.
I think I posted the maximum number of posts at the bottom.
At least the haters cannot post that I abandoned my gold posts.
snapshot
Comment: Day 5. Printed a 40$ rally till today.
Comment: Day 6 was on Friday. 3 more days till the top. So we are going to peek on Wednesday : it's the day after the elections.
This chart is telling us Trump will win the election :P
+1 Reply
Then why the commercial shorts increased their volume since last week ? Long 115.000 Short 354.000 seems shorts are getting into the game now
+3 Reply
shinsky BjornPfaff
Because they love you Bjorn. Just like how you love yourself so much!
+1 Reply
BjornPfaff shinsky
Lmao , if you know what a COT report is , then you would not have such a tone my best friend.

Keep believing in what you belief.


Peace !
Reply
COT report has never been design to give any clue to retail investors..it has another purpose ..however,some people who follow it from the beginning ,are able to pick up a "familiar" pattern signature of bullion banks intentions in medium ,but rarely in short term timeframes..but recent spike in short time interest ..should be viewed as a positive signal..bullion banks are getting ready for next week gold price spike..
Reply
Yes, from almost USD 100 loss 40% rally it's good, but it's still less then a half of it. Arpi,in September, before a big drop, you showed a chart with your recommendations for Gold longs. You said that almost all recomendations with the profit. Nowadays most part of them with loss. When I and other who follow you close positions with the profit you really can say that all who follow for your with enough patience will have a profit. Hope Gold up spike do it on the next week.

I am don't have new Gold position, but if you are sure that this rally will be continue for near USD 50 more I will buy it. Is it good moment for this with current price near 1300 or have a sence wait when it's come to the down line of current bull flag near 1280 ?

I am closely look to all your posts and most part of it give a profit. May be I am unlucky, but when I follow you I have a loss (it's about current Gold position and about call of first short for NATGAS, when I and you close it with the loss). After that I unfortunately miss your second Natgas short call which currently have a great profit and your posts about Gold long from levels near USD 1250.
Reply
I'm not sure what you are trying to say or ask but one thing that becomes clearly obvious from your post that you blindly follow someone's buy/sell signals. Though applying this strategy you might close some positions with profit, you are very likely to still lose at the end. And if I interpret your post correctly, that's exactly what's happening.

The purpose of Arpi sharing his ideas here is not to trade for you or anyone else. He provides a high quality analysis and extremely valuable insights into the general action and direction based on the best information available to him at the time of posting. Yes, he does gets occasionally excited about certain things but I rather attribute it to him being an optimistic individual than anything else.

However, unless you learn how to trade on your own and have your own trading plan, you'll remain destined to lose money. In this case, Arpi's posts will do more harm than good to you as you'll continue taking and closing your positions in complete darkness.
+1 Reply
VirtualFax VirtualFax
I realize my post is not filed with much of empathy but I really don't know what else to say. Same as no one in their right state of mind would put a three year old behind the wheel on a highway regardless of how passionate the kid could be about cars, people shouldn't be trading blindly without bothering to formally train themselves to do so. Even the most successful traders lose and lose big. However, not also they have patience but also the knowledge to recover and get ahead. Hence, the knowledge is key in trading.
+1 Reply
You have to decide by yourself who you want to follow. If you check all of my calls from the beginning you will see that I'm in profit. Great profits. Not only me but all those ppl who are following me after my March oil and gold calls.
Did I have bad calls? Yes . One of them the Jesse Livermore short but at the end I closed that near to zero before Brexit.
The other one was this gold call in September. Gold was capped in that triangle and banks had broken it down at night. I didn't know they are going to do that... And the short players who made money on that trade - it was only a 3 day drop- explaining how good they were technically predicting that move are still short. And when I will be making money even with my 1337 $ longs they will drop back twice as much money what they've gained on their shorts.
Gold shouldn't have broken down but it did in September.
If you follow me and work with 20-30% margin impact on your account you will be in big profit at the end of the year. Not 800-1000% ( I know people here who are 4-500% plus this year trading with me) but 50-100% for sure. The biggest problem that most people here not using money management. Going all in on one call. Even if you go 100% margin impact in 5-6 vehicles : like gold, NatGAs, Oil, Stocks, Miners at the end of the day the result will be a blown out account. If you go all in gold even at the beginning of an intermediate cycle your account will go to zero. This is a psychological game and every trader have to fight basic instincts like fear, greed etc. If you listen to them banks will turn them against you and you will lose. I'M trying to give to my followers beside the technicals and cycles some kind of psychological knowledge what I was studying in the university and could use it very well during the last 16 years of trading.
So I cant guarantee you that gold will spike up next week. If I could guarantee we wouldn't be chating here I would be sitting in the FED or at Goldman.

Gold is the toughest vehicle. A few banks are controlling the price. If you want to recover your account I suggest not gold but NatGas or Stocks after the elections. It's much easier.
Or oil which is a huge market and one nation like the USA cannot push up or down the price at wish.

Market is a battlefield. Every country trying to weaken their currency for strengtheing their export. The banks are fleecing the retail traders and hedge funds by stop runs and midnight attacks. The brokers are living from you. The algos are searching for your weak points to stop you out, and we are programmed to lose psychologically. If it was easy to make money here every trader would be making millions in Forex.
+16 Reply
leonarddavidson60 chartwatchers
THANKS,Arpi for your insight..very true..trading gold is battlefield..and major players (5 bullion banks,one being a known proxy for the Fed together with their partners at BIS) are conducting an open warfare on small to medium size investors and traders..it is getting harder and harrder to trade against their HFT algorythmic platforms executing thousands of trades in milliseconds in open sessions...that is why you need constantly upgrade/improve your strategy studying their trading patterns which are constantly changing especially in wee hours before the markets open..Thanks again for your insights ..much appreciated..
Long GDXJ and JNUG!!!
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