Resharing this as my last idea wasn't very useful in micro terms. Knowing all to well that the macro picture is what matters most, I still had 0 intents of sharing a decade's long trade idea. Hopefully it ages well though :)
Focusing this time on the more near time, anticipated price action, we can see that Gold is near very strong support levels. In Elliott Wave speak, I believe us to be ending (c) Wave of an all-time Wave 4 correction. With (b) Wave of Wave 4 only reaching 100% of (a), it is my belief that (c) wave will reach 100% of (a's) bottom - near 1682, or down to 105% below (a)'s bottom - near 1662.
Gold's new all-time high will sit between $2200 and $2415 and should be seen within the next 18-24 months. I've missed the top of the last big sell entry but won't find myself on the sidelines for this one. You shouldn't either. Grab your surfboard and ride the wave with us.
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We seem to currently be in Wave 5, sub-wave 4 within (c) wave. We should find support between $1662 and $1682.
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A very fluid scenario. Wave 4 seemingly just underway as of today. More heartbreak to come for bulls and bears alike.
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Elliott Wave states that, in a regular flat correction, wave B terminates near the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A.
This is the larger basis for my reasoning that Gold has not bottomed out yet. Add in the fact that we don't have 2 corrections made on the route down from 2K, the 5 wave move is very unlikely completed.
With wave A's start at 1676, we should drop below this level in the current c wave, before Gold makes strides for a timely new all time high.
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lets see if fib circles and the pitchfork tool help to pinpoint a date for gold's reversal. I've never attempted this mix of tools but they are at my disposal so here we go :)
Has Gold already time out? If not, what mid August date could its bottom be discovered?
if Wave 5 has started from 1680, we must prepare for the recent end of sub-wave 1 and 2. Or we will miss sub-wave 3. a lot profit.
DigitalSurfTrading
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@yuqiexing, possible but Elliott says that C wave should go slightly past A wave’s end in a Regular Flat correction.
Finenance
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We have options and futures closing next week followed by FOMC so they will very likely raise price through Friday and maybe Monday, then from Monday evening it will start to slip and slide to your ~1670 level . In ew terms your wave 4 up to end of the week then wave 5 final capitulation through next week. Nice projections!
DigitalSurfTrading
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@Finenance, thanks for adding some fundamental ideas to supplement the idea. I appreciate the input. Will be interesting to see how this works out with news and all. Surf carefully good sir.