Bavo_De_Bondt

Bottom formations of gold and Bitcoin 14-15: similarities

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Hello all,

I'm trying to analyse several bottom formations of different asset classes in order to find key take-aways that could be useful for the BTCUSD bottom formation.
On my profile page you can find the BTCUSD analysis based on the same principles.


Gold had an upward 200 MA since 2009.
- Top 200 MA: 1 700USD
- Bottom 200MA: 1 127USD
- Draw a fibonacci retracement from top to bottom:

Conclusions:
- First 85% retrace served as a solid support
- Once broken it became the resistance
- Afterwards price was mostly trading in the 85 - 100 - 115 retrace channel from the 200MA top

Link BTC 2014 Crash:
- Multiple parabolic sell-offs
- 200MA was broken near the top followed by heavy parabolic sell-offs
- Price was mostly trading in the 85 - 100 - 115 retrace channel from the 200MA top

- 200MA currently changed trend
- 200MA Can touch 100% retrace again and price level 115% retrace in order to confirm the bottom
- 200MA touched 100% retrace twice in order to confirm the bottom ( BTC 2014 -2015 bear market)

shortcommings:
- Prediction of 200MA trendline
- Empirical analysis

I'm looking forward to your feedback.
Best,
Bavo
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