Viking83
Long

Gold: Long term outlook

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
2483 views
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Gold is bottoming and is making ready for interesting movements in the coming time Ahead. Good Luck.
Comment: How would an ideal bottom look like? Just an idea how it might play out. The longer it takes, the more sustainable :)

Comment: Please note: It is safer to wait until after July 4th to take positions. I will enter my main positions then.
Comment: We see now all those euphoric ppl start to show up (take a look in Goldroom chat and u will know what I talk about). Bears still live in denial, but eventually they turn in bulls too, then the first reaction occurs bringing them back to start and the mood will alter again and they will lose hope and give into fear, then the runup is ready not looking much back until all are bulls again. Rinse and repeat.
Comment: The public loves speculative objects, and few things are more speculative than price of gold. Maybe except Bitcoin. But all those coinholders that are now facing depressing prices will soon turn their heads to the old shining star.
Comment: Used this Nice dip to take some more positions :) We are approaching July 4 in only two days.
Comment: Both 1264 and 1292 are targets that I expect to be seen within not so very long time. The rationale behind this is a bit difficult to explain, so I rather not :)
Comment: Now, if I am right, gold will have changed behaviour, meaning, consolidation phase shall be a part of history books and we will enter a higher trend-angle where the pullbacks will be Shorter and trend clearer.
Comment: Short term predictions isn't my thing at all, but here is how the bottoming at this point might play out given FOMC and everything.
Comment: Im not taking any profit before 1292 is seen.
"Avoid taking small profits and big losses"
Comment: Or you can Place Your TP at the moon. Up to you :D
Comment: Approaching my first of 2 shorter term targets: 1264.5
Comment: I like price action. As I warned of June 29th, there will probably be a bottoming process. That is healthy because it makes it less likely to Return later. If price is in a hurry at some Level, it is always much higher probability to Return to a given price. Sentiment got very hot very fast, and that is always a problem. Everybody in position doesnt drive price well. :)
Comment: Price action discourages traders as many wait for confirmation on their trades and doesnt feel comfortable with taking positions before they see price shifts the other way. And when then price get its first reaction, it goes below their price entry, leaving them uncomfortable and trigging their stop or make them close their position manually. Then price goes back up and they will have to chase for a higher price. Gold is a master in being a difficult asset to trade, but yet it is the asset which most retail love to trade. Go figure.
Comment: :) Perfect price action. I like when there is fear, best time to buy
Comment: Last OPPORTUNITY to load up now I believe. When others scream of lower, buy and hold
Comment: And smile of course :) But never overleverage! That will destroy your trade, almost guaranteed.
Trade active: 1246.5 ish entry
Comment: Feeling bearish as gold goes up? Good, that's the mood we look for. Lol
Comment:
Comment: Now, assuming the trend line holds; the question is how long time do we need to stay here, consolidating? Yes, consolidations are boring. Well, the time Depends on causes (cycles). Truth is, I don't know at this point. I have positioned myself in my positions until December. In that way I save myself the trouble of watching the ticker and have emotional trials Connected to the positions. While my positions are placed, I can do more productive matters, like enjoyoing holidays or learn more about causes, so that I can predict duration better in the future. Tip of the day: STAY AWAY from watching the ticker. It's never healthy.
Comment: Price made a New low today after the July 3 low. That changed my Outlook a bit on the upper targets. I will then just exit the positions at 1292-93 as planned and not hold longer as I doesnt have confirmations on higher Levels at this point.
Comment: Please note, the idea itself isnt invalidated, but I need to approach the Levels in a bit different way on the way up, working With breaking of price Levels upwards as counted from the bottom at 36 degree intervals. I will make these calculations as soon as bottom is confirmed in (which I believe it is), and the trade can be done. Now, as price has overbalanced time (Balance was found at July 3), the reversal should be quicker.
Comment: Analyzed price a bit closer. As long as 1236.5 is not broken downwards, we should be due for reversal. Now, With hitting the 1236.5, price has stretched 144 degrees from the breakdown price of 1293. Likelihood of reversal getting quite high.
Comment: Aritmethic trendline broken today on Day 173 since the top:
Comment:
Comment: However, I suspect this trendline break more to be an exhaustion of trend as we are extremely late in cycle and at quite oversold Levels. My target of 1293 is unchanged. Good thing I am positioned in options With long duration :)
Comment: Each 36 degree break signals one 36 degree level lower. As we broke 1236.x today, that implies 1222.x to be seen.
Comment: So, ideal is that price goes DIRECT to 1222 and then reverse. 1249.5 is added to the list of targets on upside btw.
Comment: 1222 hit. Lots of unseen on the upside. I'd say bottom is in.
Comment: I have studied time cycles a bit closer and I see potential bullrun until August 5 for now, so I anticipate my long-sought target 1293 will be reached by then.
Comment: If now we are "lucky", price might retest this level before further rise
Comment: Price tested the 50 % Level:
Comment: Believe me, the upmove will make up for lost time. So many bears now, trying to scalp for peanuts at the lows.
Trade active: Added to position
Comment: Little changed so far except that price is settling on 50 % fib level. I had yet another cycle interval of an intermediate cycle ending July 30. My main hypothesis is that an even larger cycle has been working on price since we haven't reversed yet. I am still trying to figure out this larger cycle, but the intermediate cycle that I have found that bottomed July 30, I have this cycle pointing up with given direction.
gold and all our "analysis" is great but....

the correlation between Chinese Rembibi and the Gold is too damn high.
gold is a tool at the will of China i guess. this does not smell good.... How we can know what a guy in China central bank think about this tariff and all.... it seems like all it takes a button to push "devaluate %10" and that's gold's new price as well.... This scared me off Viking, to be honest.
Reply
Viking83 sahinrecan
@sahinrecan, Well, I hold, I think I might have located the last cycle, and its midpoint should be either tomorrow or Friday. If we havent started reversing by Monday, something is terrible wrong.
Reply
sahinrecan Viking83
@Viking83, i hold as well... i mean, 4000 years of the science of today's realm : ) i don't put limits like Monday / it might be later than that as DXY might want to go higher with small corrections. But the inevitable point is, in my humble opinion, there is no room for US to continue the same story after January 2019.
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the cycle is late by 2 weeks, and 1215 level is utmost critical to hold. weekly close is below 1215 though.

What do you think about the current price action Viking? is this idea still valid? i'd say it is cause you are adding additional longs by 31st of Jul. Having the weekly close below 1215 made me think
Reply
Viking83 sahinrecan
@sahinrecan, Yes, it is valid still. Invalidation level is 1195.
+1 Reply
Viking83 sahinrecan
@sahinrecan, The DXY cannot make any higher high. It is a question of time before it rolls over.
+1 Reply
sahinrecan Viking83
@Viking83, thanks for the heads up. Weekly RSI is oversold. i can agree for 1195. dollar gold ratio is at the key level. if it can not break through by this August (%1-2 distortion /fake attempts expected) i'd be gearing up for fancy positive moves in gold. we will see.
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sahinrecan Viking83
@Viking83, meanwhile another scenario might unfold is: Dxy to the 98.5 ish (trendline) and eurusd to 1.07 (gap close) meanwhile gold would hold around this zone. (1220-1230.) DXY/GOLD ratio is at its limit. There is room for Eurusd to melt down while gold is already at the limits. we will see.
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doesn't seem like gold has lots upside this year...maybe a bounce to 1300 before final smash down?
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Viking83 howard1127
@howard1127, My cycles point to 1450 range by november/december. Let's see.
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