GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 13 - Oct 17]

Oct 12

During this week, international XAUUSD continuously set new record highs, surging from $3,884/oz to as high as $4,059/oz, before closing the week at $4,011/oz.

Although the fundamental factors supporting gold’s uptrend remain solid, many analysts have expressed concerns about the possibility of a gold sell-off, similar to what occurred in 2011, as investment demand for gold has skyrocketed in recent months. According to data from the World Gold Council, global investment demand for gold-backed ETFs surged by 221.7 tons (worth nearly $26 billion) in the third quarter. This strong inflow pushed total ETF gold holdings up by nearly 2%, approaching the all-time high recorded in 2020.

Moreover, within just one trading session following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, about $1.5 trillion in U.S. stock market capitalization was wiped out, while the crypto market also lost roughly $280 billion. This raises concerns that investors might start taking profits on their gold positions—which are currently showing strong gains—to cover losses in stocks and cryptocurrencies.

However, mounting fiscal pressure, rising public debt, and waning confidence in fiat currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, along with uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and Trump’s recent threat to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports, continue to support gold prices in the near term.

For the upcoming week, gold prices are likely to fluctuate between $3,850/oz and $4,150/oz.

📌In terms of technical analysis, on the short-term chart H1, it is necessary to pay attention to 2 resistance levels: the resistance level around 4059, and the support level 3945. Next week, the gold price will continue to maintain its upward momentum when the 4059 level is broken. In case the price trades below the 3945 level, the gold price may be sold off, causing the price to adjust to around 3850.

Notable technical levels are listed below.
• Nearest resistance: $4,059 – this is the short-term top zone that needs to be overcome to extend the upside momentum.
• Next resistance:
o Fibonacci level 0.382 at $4,232,
o Level 0.5 at $4,320,
o And the 0.618 extension zone at $4,408 – potential targets if gold maintains the current momentum.
• Short-term support:
o $4,000 (strong psychological zone – now turned from resistance to support).
o Deeper support at $3,896 – $3,871, coinciding with the confluence of MA20 + previous correction bottom.

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4098 - 4096⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4102

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3908 - 3910⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3904

Oct 13

Note

World gold prices continued to increase sharply on the morning of October 13, reaching a record high of 4,060 USD/oz, driven by a series of global risk factors.

Oct 13

Note

Oct 13

Trade active

Weekly Plan SELL +50pips🔽🔽🔽

Oct 14

Note

🔴Spot gold price rose to 4140 USD/ounce, up 0.70% on the day.

Oct 15

Note

Gold prices hit a record high of $4,179.47 per ounce on Wednesday. Although prices briefly fell below the $4,100 mark during the session, strong dip-buying activity quickly helped gold regain momentum, closing up 0.77% at $4,142.01 per ounce.

Oct 17

Note

The world's largest gold ETF -- SPDR Gold Trust increased by 12.02 tonnes compared to the previous day, the largest increase in 1 month, current holdings are 1034.62 tonnes.

Oct 21

Note

🔴Spot gold prices fell below $4,340/ounce, down 0.37% on the day.