staurum

7 June 2016 (notes to update)

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
43 0 2
Weekly: partly have crooked looking up, while some are flat and some are down. It has turned to neutral though with tiny bull bias. If it stays above last week's closing (1244) and close higher, then the indicators are good to go higher, or else lower. Gold             stays within its mid range (120x/121x -- 130x/131x). Note that W-midbband and W-MA10 is at 1251.8)

Daily: with 6June candle closing higher (even if it s only $1 higher), the upward momentum is maintained. Hopefully today too, so that we have a nice stronger, more confirmed bullish bias. Bears are now less likely though. Although gold             managed to cut above DMA 21 (1243) and is in the upper range (120x - 126x), the tests are DMA50 (1246.65) and DMA34 (1251.8), with the floors being at 1224 (DMA10, DMA100, and D-midBband). We hope the tests can pass soon taking advantage of the threads pointing up.

Intraday: Vols have now eased. good thing is although some overbought reading it is keeping at the high range, hence maintaining intraday bullish momentum. with a strong momentum, they are not overbought, but just proved the strength of the bulls holding up. nearest floor is at 1238 with 1228 basement, while closest ceiling is at 1252. with a pessimist eye, the flat-sideway move can have diminishing/divergence-side-effect. hopefully not, since daily is blowing the wind up.

Media: Last night, Yellen gave a long one-hour holy speech. why holy? for every negative/positive points, she balanced it with opposite counter-arguments. while she does that, gold             played ping-pong 1247.5 vs 1240. Let's see which bat wins today as the table length is already prepped last night. Ping-pong batters may look at the EU referendum, Brexit, and possibly the US federal elections. In the months coming, my personal belief is that FOMC may say rate hike is possible in July given better economic data in June/July, and they want to see Brexit/Bremain first.
Comment: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20160606a.htm
Let s examine later.
Comment: Intraday development:

H4-chart reveals a softening on the momentum, although volatilities are shrinking since the opening of the day. H4MA100 @1238 might be hunted. Threads one by one have dissipated to inching lower following MACD that s bending down quickly due to the flatness of the movement. Hopefully the strength will not dip into the water. Luckily the volatility drops so hopefully prevention happens.

H1-chart is totally bored, like a ball bouncing within the triangle. Momentum has no taste. with the threads showing moves towards the downside as the candles go sideways. All is not lost though what needed here could be some breaks (i prefer +ups). I forgot to note that Pivot today is at 1244.65. When asia opens, Pivot breached below.
Now with London goes into play. They still brush their teeth and do some make-ups.
Comment: Just now. DXY broke 93.90 lower. most currencies strengthen. strangely, gold broke triangle lower and testing last night pingpong edge at 1240. right now gold is the divergent, may be a detergent later.
Comment: H4-chart has given an oversold impression. H4MA100@1238 taken out. Bullish momentum is pretty much threatened, for the next few days it must climb back up without printing lower lows, or else bears will take over. It s a pity early warning given by the threads not taken seriously enough. It s now touching the bottom of the channel. it s challengeable, but a break below is dangerous.

H1-chart, gives a slide to 1235. It s now printed a good hammer, but the momentum has switched sides. Threads look like bottoming out. Let s see. NY opens
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