GOLD - A countertrend correction before a decline

Jun 9

XAUUSD is in a corrective phase after printing a new low at 4268. Both the local and global bearish trends remain intact; however, the geopolitical backdrop continues to be unstable



Gold is undergoing a fundamental and technical shift to the downside, driven by several factors acting simultaneously: a sharp increase in expectations for further Fed rate hikes (now above 70% by December), a break and close below the 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, a stronger U.S. dollar above the psychological 100.0 level, and rising Treasury yields toward the 4.55–4.57% range
Technically, the market remains under pressure, and short positions continue to be the preferred strategy. A short squeeze into a liquidity zone could trigger another sharp decline toward support and lower target levels. However, a sudden positive shift in the fundamental backdrop could invalidate the local bearish structure

Resistance levels: 4353, 4368, 4400
Support levels: 4311–4300, 4268

The U.S. dollar is consolidating after a strong rally but shows no signs of weakness. This technical factor continues to weigh on an already bearish gold market.
From a technical perspective, gold may perform a retest of resistance as part of a liquidity-hunting move. A short squeeze into the 4380–4400 area could trigger a decline toward the key zones of interest at 4300–4250

Best regards, R. Linda

Jun 10

Trade active